Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GE Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
SOx	1A1a																								5	6	6	491	735
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL											33629	34383	35397	36500	35610	34861	29568	32224	32952	32939	32994	33368	35687	40551	34620	34162	33107	30932

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1B1a											97	210	251	4	4	4	4	3
PM2.5	2A2									26	52	2235		23	26	16	79	59	46
PM10	1B1a											815	1765	2110	36	31	31	30	28
TSP	1A1a								11353	11385	9323	12303	8646	5958	3	4	5	10	13
TSP	1B1a											1727	3740	4471	77	65	66	64	59
BC	2A1								255	256	33	14	24	24	25	25	28	29	32

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2a																								59285	528447	426274	495979	554137
Pb	2A3																								84000	43000	164000	211400	180104
Pb	2C1																								758582	655034	729099	481592	795498
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL																		354302	364952	376680	404209	446821	487754	2155661	2490048	2515265	2414912	2820189
Cd	1A2f																								9400	56000	7210	7656	10126
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL																		8746	9042	9370	9865	10624	11440	289885	334784	254535	251759	245065

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL											121939	122225	110535	97691	84869			297	307	317	343	373	405	17109	17231	14978	14628	14225