Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: GE      Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
NMVOC1A1a                 164891482613981501143727323630
SOx1A1a                       566491
NH3NATIONALTOTAL          3362934383353973650035610348612956835161359233568035955365293879144016373293721035999

PM (Unit = Mg)
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
PM2.51B1a          972102514444
PM2.52A2        26522235 2326167959
PM101B1a          8151765211036313130
TSP1A1a       11353113859323123038646595834510
TSP1B1a          17273740447177656664
BC2A1       2552563314242425252829

HM (Unit = g)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Pb1A2a                       59285528447426274495979
Pb2A3                       8400043000164000211400
Pb2C1                       758582655034729099481592
PbNATIONALTOTAL                 3543023649523766804042094468214877542159288248838125115412531415
Cd1A2f                       94005600072107656
CdNATIONALTOTAL                 87469042937098651062411440292230334909254814254950
Hg1A2a                       3634313292542829488

POP (Unit = mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
DIOXNATIONALTOTAL          1219391222251105359769184869  29730731734337340517126172301497514730