Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91549	91529	91642	91578	96305	91541	91636	91822	91509	91388	91472	91603	91561	91216	91389	91271	91314	91277	91307	91490	91309	91309
NMVOC	2D3d	250455	220499	203782	205797	211248	185773	175422	172571	168917	154085	143372	138175	136780	133619	132404	126605	129499	122836	103609	89965	84510	94142	90139	88415	87301	82506	81752	78805	77342	72061	69765
NMVOC	2D3i	66434	63952	60234	58219	58092	55923	56659	54720	52475	49943	47453	45552	42407	43027	42114	42811	44088	44779	40238	35096	37356	35606	34571	34420	33832	34176	33757	33244	32654	38520	35999
SOx	1A2a	28189	27984	29254	38904	34227	31353	22793	27487	30592	30061	22938	24039	17170	12360	14409	13911	15897	18820	17276	16395	14822	12393	13270	14238	14660	12802	8685	9072	8983	8926	9091
SOx	1A2f	47101	39582	36535	36926	41716	47247	31808	34659	32429	30604	25428	23423	25553	24031	21774	19988	14664	12167	8246	4107	4313	6121	6866	6967	4705	5482	4859	4243	5267	5406	4501
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	3574369	3506013	3413640	3101560	2819869	2535194	2155180	1756041	1753727	1352658	1291737	1222434	1098058	1067690	904617	787936	741906	646039	544105	446856	454916	427166	461259	398145	324217	261615	191244	186864	173676	156296	136165
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3574369	3506013	3413640	3101560	2819869	2535194	2155180	1756041	1753727	1352658	1291737	1222434	1098058	1067690	904617	787936	741906	646039	544105	446856	454916	427166	461259	398145	324217	261615	191244	186864	173676	156296	136165
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	3574369	3506013	3413640	3101560	2819869	2535194	2155180	1756041	1753727	1352658	1291737	1222434	1098058	1067690	904617	787936	741906	646039	544105	446856	454916	427166	461259	398145	324217	261615	191244	186864	173676	156296	136165
NH3	11C	8130	8133	8135	8136	8139	8141	8143	8145	8147	8150	8153	8156	8160	8164	8205	8249	8292	8336	8395	8302	8491	8539	8635	8346	8471	8092	8383	8430	8535	8562	8998
NH3	3Da2c		11	10	10	16	15	16	17	16	16	16	16	170	166	257	492	511	556	599	890	1760	3080	4168	5970	9036	11283	14221	15850	15075	15103	15272
CO	1A1a	113031	111000	108212	98503	106373	105161	103252	43464	60837	53373	64760	67551	65330	70553	71633	73560	79888	79410	77081	67614	70995	71575	84480	80677	67934	59991	39913	36972	48210	38215	43255
CO	1A2gvii	200743	190695	190486	193207	202208	205348	205396	205459	205499	205494	205460	205519	205554	205498	224482	218745	224083	231347	218333	188289	206184	203218	189151	183773	203426	218168	227390	241082	242239	245701	219487

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	165387010	161461102	164355481	150218218	160621093	133077421	99163652	60837433	21912461	16710659	17594268	14709395	12137690	11729615	12805285	9992557	9931089	2398923	1977455	2265573	3107153	2535677	4536758	3534710	2689185	2957487	2607141	2455855	2107784	2140044	2138637
Pb	1A2f	4959953	4387761	4155109	4184651	4552602	4515548	4577115	4708036	4761926	4971500	3332921	2412059	7640374	4321523	8711958	3635209	878568	1603605	1761060	872021	687409	1630937	2889304	2261684	1807524	2808154	1162520	2377850	2145415	1583884	1374573
Pb	1A2gviii	15460243	15257192	16444789	15396212	15184480	17076295	16041504	16046461	14840568	14282506	13980530	14089318	13299782	13623483	13973039	11867329	9755873	9823017	8851265	9902772	11500739	9947892	8844676	9984001	10273656	9618976	9566083	9884296	9374784	8962083	8281496
Pb	1A3bi	1913093125	1713746848	1538940040	1364874031	1159452918	957827033	818488857	720261818	529458169	280701686	1326619	1125529	1052584	1014808	994644	1028597	1000047	634185	596060	567081	525817	500998	479704	455458	445569	436453	431489	425442	417830	416201	321075
Pb	1A3bii	209697629	183968607	152942244	127815887	103771439	78300842	61583148	50295872	35014016	15567589	65546	48419	39275	34143	30414	28278	28411	17920	16186	14541	13305	12444	11653	11082	10753	10396	10155	9799	9423	8971	7806
Pb	1A5b	124879	108935	102762	100221	95006	94178	93041	91696	75806	77099	72559	70879	71455	75465	75721	1721225	1730516	1732801	1723861	1783898	506229	148606	129750	355979	154458	42982	37136	886386	1012068	5505862	5416303
Pb	2B10a	93111183	93168792	93236566	93287397	93402614	80227998	69609142	108877486	84610322	26068080	10570304	13094861	10221192	12597043	13821738	13846792	3913909	2879500	3548917	3951815	3818313	3957855	4270799	2031696	3075610	3833508	4727462	3657462	3319462	3375462	3128462
Pb	2C5	7740577	7415785	8048621	8348546	8148920	7587166	8129200	6740417	6555745	5423159	5586705	9090965	9962151	7572001	3813929	1519802	1410782	1838324	1326674	1785577	1548093	1393888	1986888	1289070	1645692	1615663	986357	1167574	715600	399677	307443
Pb	2C7a	11577417	7173291	4911217	5321639	5566466	6040063	6421241	10388943	5813538	6867182	7691888	7660780	5521323	1757937	3372668	1501614	4300843	2478298	985434	295735	82017	82017	82017	79873	78689	142842	142842	142845	142880	142890	142836
Pb	2I	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	2536618	2840618	4423070	3995616	2548546	3624235	4177546	4479000	2710000	4348000	4708975	5009888	4403400	1616445	3863392	3021243
Pb	5C1a	219560228	218425126	206931441	150311912	84732740	58569044	41413647	339153	3624	3597	2750
Cd	1A1a	5619807	5342240	5341102	2349802	2370508	1678164	1374500	694257	776656	680035	451961	613096	584510	609204	718256	853754	854218	170954	117649	193086	139009	174452	178714	170248	208998	159132	174021	144132	145336	137270	143008
Cd	1A2b	41779	53401	52458	59612	56816	50359	54957	52425	48259	17561	17758	21317	27313	22187	17574	11634	31304	11272	20115	48846	182024	35418	16508	1630	1331	1240	1091	1019	1025	972	921
Cd	1A2gviii	856061	1118978	1101508	928600	1003363	925526	872238	606734	606002	496586	403579	437993	393633	459095	576619	527676	470465	433691	440448	539404	642331	600096	521825	565317	795210	904091	952844	1167543	1285175	1274488	1454863
Cd	2C1	1400661	1308505	1290573	1306436	1348539	1379499	1408507	1448159	1368244	1180335	1062287	973365	802562	910040	918200	937703	942893	951760	903100	661560	594412	1046647	650756	732707	984755	701267	424743	494245	518631	427110	373399
Cd	2C5	372582	351810	392284	411466	398699	362771	397438	231173	264894	189547	157957	84008	109498	77187	51709	14931	14765	36637	53851	14951	25458	37017	32814	15443	15693	18493	14780	9761	9498	5437	2959
Cd	2C6	2368323	2453851	2419446	2569067	2401056	2401072	1684035	2298035	979989	1253035	1052035	831035	979035	242486	1335	1005	1005	1005	1005	705	696	660	634	710	763	738	698	713	727	676	623
Cd	2C7c	1383865	1195529	1287724	1244920	1074075	909350	752544	603836	458902	318251	221287	179292	188075	172284	145707	148252	172132	101058	115291	75025	120010	102263	109798	110831	103506	86773	80001	100453	64008	101862	84423
Cd	3F	2702587	2376949	1738721	58087
Cd	5C1a	7177931	7140821	6765066	707725	571422	308617	128013	796	682	311	279
Hg	1A1a	9733437	9614214	9399852	4981065	4840110	4546148	2851856	2342768	2336922	1653810	1654455	1768005	1543250	1913675	1753090	2331510	2233949	2210074	1805094	1278074	1481914	1318061	1822148	1609046	1335991	1235500	879901	756657	746060	589287	712277
Hg	1A1b	26632	29087	29832	30856	32077	30500	30344	30890	29638	27212	25682	26074	25052	24178	36116	36544	27188	45607	45267	66659	297218	44605	29277	71681	22054	23387	23580	20738	28325	18385	12995
Hg	1A2b	112022	213233	201661	240875	210083	189725	196725	155367	147658	78270	166903	51088	257845	70224	60992	26804	36579	24781	310400	332842	34757	28429	27500	24600	23047	21341	18961	17740	16949	15599	14432
Hg	1A2c	530481	591312	567640	478660	472672	390934	287426	227589	147112	147688	82113	152684	163963	170438	161990	181586	180287	187253	186661	165077	165910	202258	155265	114551	84796	43085	39904	31443	32714	24946	22915
Hg	1A2f	195975	166292	155469	156808	175013	172899	177293	116562	480918	254375	259113	226322	249872	237557	242145	297040	232528	278079	267900	198468	246538	243365	254348	242838	208001	168336	168165	178219	307775	239447	278805
Hg	1A2gviii	808711	803856	1040018	565695	438205	576064	282517	328732	286544	350505	358125	285031	276517	283521	261164	298537	294739	204625	314919	374383	502423	457415	553040	810877	764163	575094	527737	452752	427542	341874	321110
Hg	2B10a	8001722	8804498	7349764	3210213	3515764	4132805	2345569	1090509	1202391	1438182	1394448	1442790	1243940	1228680	1181320	1142007	1321672	880370	951040	794040	811040	681340	374340	407340	365340	300340	120740	170740	225740	121740	740
Hg	2C1	534095	500840	494600	497202	511237	524445	534799	550098	521827	526648	509540	454835	379509	587527	420382	480480	610903	677843	433432	455931	374502	757922	417280	685151	553907	481210	355790	512259	477123	521503	292648
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2383833	1867667	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000	51041
Hg	2C7c	5217838	4502630	4861406	4697617	4038484	3402571	2799640	2225785	1668014	1084013	696295	655373	618562	618292	490003	530797	454447	329812	345078	230085	272908	303471	281904	280755	264479	231284	217433	360896	220422	365120	303220
Hg	5C1a	5911237	5880676	5571231	426374	347184	277586	209757	6221	1929	868	1297
Hg	5C1biii	156795	156795	147835	138876	91120	326628	136891	159929	111761	40459	68044	56405	64381	294458	46275	73309	42081	37030	46690	419758	110450	41054	26111	20055	14182	18457	14768	11664	17886	19200	17627
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	753741	772203	784856	830443	870792	874990	913662	935289	976061	1026347	917850	843956	636527	591487	557577	515678	515228	478508	448316	423212	394978	429493

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A2f	8959	7407	6806	6882	7840	7742	7603	8670	4625	5511	4857	4814	1909	2044	24648	1604	1330	1094	1444	1462	2610	1304	668	1147	1207	856	456	625	584	527	500
DIOX	1A2gviii	21629	21450	23971	18431	28133	31807	28692	23238	25322	22708	16991	14665	15059	15548	15750	9105	9701	7947	14443	15797	16358	16771	17585	20805	21851	20765	20481	21023	21721	20899	21920
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3155612581	3063023714	3371528740	3685440746	3957987826	4131107696	4173050636	4173629643	4430341551	96170074	81979700	72388536	67517230	62479246	75740493	72381524	67832530	58609297	54264581	35634574	34400714	25073074	23893895	20196638	24049888	27763605	33499448	36587606	38784842	41633161	42833094
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3155612581	3063023714	3371528740	3685440746	3957987826	4131107696	4173050636	4173629643	4430341551	96170074	81979700	72388536	67517230	62479246	75740493	72381524	67832530	58609297	54264581	35634574	34400714	25073074	23893895	20196638	24049888	27763605	33499448	36587606	38784842	41633161	42833094
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	3155612581	3063023714	3371528740	3685440746	3957987826	4131107696	4173050636	4173629643	4430341551	96170074	81979700	72388536	67517230	62479246	75740493	72381524	67832530	58609297	54264581	35634574	34400714	25073074	23893895	20196638	24049888	27763605	33499448	36587606	38784842	41633161	42833094
PCB	2K	11460292844	10143806114	9003788405	8013661311	7151225866	6397887919	5738028636	5158491588	4648163742	4197632283	1084011079	979176250	937903192	899542398	863704918	830071637	798379736	768411833	739987255	712955042	687188315	662579754	639037960	616484522	594851664	574080337	554118683	534920801	516445732	498656656	481520225
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	12485313727	11082513808	9938661471	8943154786	8020749918	7226136590	6536065404	5956884904	5384285302	4784715763	1653675800	1536192969	1456874461	1396389670	1366703793	1305161112	1247873112	1211184657	1164534075	1065062790	1033563701	1010648962	968438014	941664552	907494603	870578130	808693934	786457169	771951298	745783726	705102764
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	12485308172	11082508896	9938656614	8943150155	8020746466	7226134105	6536062764	5956882573	5384283694	4784714609	1653675368	1536192599	1456874088	1396389354	1366703517	1305160815	1247872873	1211184429	1164533934	1065062648	1033563549	1010648860	968437926	941664503	907494585	870578123	808693917	786457178	771951319	745783777	705102797
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	12485308172	11082508896	9938656614	8943150155	8020746466	7226134105	6536062764	5956882573	5384283694	4784714609	1653675368	1536192599	1456874088	1396389354	1366703517	1305160815	1247872873	1211184429	1164533934	1065062648	1033563549	1010648860	968437926	941664503	907494585	870578123	808693917	786457178	771951319	745783777	705102797