Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	2979767	2908329	2834472	2676929	2635373	2524496	2418522	2224749	2169790	2049863	1964459	1931356	1836644	1806425	1752891	1731286	1672986	1603911	1447767	1255104	1123521	1152045	1177976	1118994	1047440	1015481	920983	891691	866327	839118
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91549	91529	91642	91578	96305	91541	91636	91822	91509	91388	91472	91603	91561	91216	91389	91271	91314	91277	91307	91490	91490
NMVOC	2D3d	250456	220500	203782	205798	211249	185774	175423	172572	168918	154085	143427	138219	136815	133638	132412	126605	129500	122848	103620	89976	84521	94153	90150	88438	87331	82534	81653	78588	77326	73951
SOx	1A2f	47101	39582	36535	36926	41716	47247	31808	34659	32429	30604	25428	23423	25553	24031	21774	19988	14664	12167	8246	4108	4315	6149	6870	6970	4705	5482	4859	4243	5267	5406
SOx	2H1	8976	8785	8802	8888	9009	8983	8925	8913	8860	8874	8895	8834	8911	8885	8878	8836	8804	8795	8683	8586	8600	8684	8960	9122	8794	7940	7354	7716	7788	7788
NH3	11C	8130	8133	8135	8136	8139	8141	8143	8145	8147	8150	8153	8156	8160	8164	8205	8249	8292	8336	8395	8302	8491	8539	8635	8346	8471	8092	8383	8430	8535	8562
NH3	3Da2c		11	10	10	16	16	16	17	16	16	16	16	170	166	257	490	508	553	595	887	1752	3049	4127	5695	8359	10743	13740	14765	14070	14231
CO	1A1a	113031	111001	108213	98503	106373	105160	103251	43463	60837	53373	64760	67552	65330	70553	71633	73560	79888	79411	77082	67602	70964	71539	84437	80628	67907	59959	39991	37041	45746	36969
CO	1A2gvii	200743	190695	190486	193207	202208	205348	205396	205459	205499	205494	205460	205519	205554	205498	224462	218740	224086	231346	218336	188286	206225	204361	189958	184922	204862	219942	229481	243117	244366	250318

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	11C	5785	5903	6016	6851	6135	6169	6321	6270	6169	6150	6147	6175	6070	6189	6339	6497	6652	6798	6946	7076
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	165387096	161461181	164355490	150219305	160625423	133084761	99172999	60850748	21939326	16738484	17621113	14737447	12165725	11758294	12831547	10021403	9960239	2429143	2007760	2285082	3129023	2551308	4551756	3552762	2659557	3015822	2626531	2476884	1943240	2246962
Pb	1A2f	4959953	4387761	4155109	4184651	4552602	4515549	4577115	4708036	4761926	4971500	3332921	2412059	7640374	4321523	8711958	3635209	878568	1603605	1761060	872021	687409	1630937	2889304	2261684	1807524	2808154	1162532	2377850	2145415	1583878
Pb	1A2gviii	15434579	15231587	16433460	15392142	15120776	16983017	15951259	16171891	14766424	14218096	13926666	14040422	13250300	13571488	13922663	11843808	9732447	9822915	8760675	9809796	11499679	9947015	8844220	9981802	10259108	9529869	9570013	9881086	9267808	8973832
Pb	1A3bi	1918839733	1718842842	1542983744	1367722478	1161552273	959142878	819317698	720686735	529568870	280661395	1326024	1124836	1052020	1014171	993854	1027758	999146	633802	595749	566997	525803	501027	479803	455554	445718	436667	431653	425504	417696	415228
Pb	1A3bii	203814846	178659432	148702296	124766750	101475815	76824990	60624773	49737623	34794217	15535171	65984	49049	39854	34816	31224	29164	29496	18784	17036	15291	14007	13126	12295	11677	11314	10920	10628	10193	9778	9665
Pb	2B10a	93111183	93168792	93236566	93287397	93402614	80227998	69609142	108877486	84610322	26068080	10570304	13094861	10221192	12597043	13821738	13846792	3913909	2879500	3548917	3951815	3818313	3957855	4270799	2031696	3075610	3833508	4727462	3657462	3319462	3375462
Pb	2C5	6790882	6519038	7048706	7299737	7132655	6662480	7116149	6009220	6106745	5044084	5142756	8336224	9257641	6994317	3566359	1443786	1416879	1925861	1386458	1874513	1613995	1457838	2080858	1347012	1727210	1692632	1036340	1230211	749991	414483
Pb	2C7a	11703157	7283269	5022188	5435864	5698384	6175750	6556573	10302493	5742671	6825350	7658584	7627887	5484518	1763741	3356913	1504793	4299130	2465462	984294	299999	82017	82017	82017	79873	78689	142842	142842	142845	142880	142890
Pb	2C7c	72793001	62819976	67814896	65532127	56350479	47492653	39092051	31098446	23327503	14804846	9602839	8672915	8061570	8054355	7007280	7484321	6625926	4618104	4728423	3223076	3613919	4271573	3986793	4119203	3933573	3342853	3622770	6095962	3774179	6014446
Pb	2G	6076860	6076881	6076913	6076940	6077146	6077331	6077586	5405183	5870770	9868554	10787385	10362479	12215713	19604386	14005524	15457368	14963855	13205726	9345307	7684292	9445365	9100096	9959338	6879234	8008665	8641860	8319091	8193076	8017008	6683024
Pb	2I	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	4127801	2536618	2840618	4423070	3995616	2548546	3624235	4177546	4479000	2710000	4348000	4708975	5009888	4403400	1616445	2764401
Pb	5C1a	217854628	216719526	205225841	150314944	84737011	58574943	41421787	339323	3837	3816	2992
Cd	1A1a	5619832	5342266	5341124	2370820	2370243	1678033	1374487	694284	776851	679889	451680	612727	584265	609031	718410	853199	854049	171364	117926	191201	139268	174723	179181	170602	209280	154899	174736	144960	129685	130532
Cd	1A2b	41797	53418	52484	59643	56842	50374	54975	52442	48276	17574	17763	21322	27319	22188	17576	11633	31304	11272	20116	48844	182024	35418	16508	1630	1331	1239	1090	1019	1025	970
Cd	1A2gviii	831525	1094412	1078152	905841	954990	870670	816894	655546	558449	456336	374969	412579	368188	433447	551118	516870	459327	433653	397257	494893	642103	599998	521722	565105	789200	862337	955844	1167293	1292279	1285769
Cd	1A4bi	339343	363951	339171	382620	360470	336054	388157	355294	359611	378384	382444	421824	387975	419697	431656	443428	460296	465185	544433	583244	742060	646586	804244	941931	893348	1001680	1070484	1068655	1163230	1191044
Cd	2C1	1400661	1308505	1290573	1306436	1348539	1379499	1408507	1448159	1368244	1180335	1062287	973365	802562	910040	918200	937703	942898	951760	903100	661560	594412	1046647	650756	732707	984755	701267	424743	494245	518631	427110
Cd	2C5	315647	298049	332338	348589	337773	307335	336704	193427	224068	171485	142885	75982	99703	69567	46882	13093	14416	36903	54183	15350	25923	37548	33412	16107	16424	19291	15644	10692	10591	6602
Cd	2C6	2368323	2453851	2419446	2569067	2401056	2401072	1684035	2298035	979989	1253035	1052035	831035	979035	242486	1335	1005	1005	1005	1005	705	696	660	634	710	763	738	698	713	727	676
Cd	2C7c	1383544	1195236	1287444	1244643	1073790	909058	752252	603537	458602	317951	220987	178992	187489	171121	144013	146427	169459	96937	110312	67668	112956	95842	103503	104240	97136	80703	82751	105405	66765	111086
Cd	3F	2702587	2376949	1738721	58087
Cd	5C1a	7122171	7085061	6709306	738554	571255	308571	128061	798	684	314	282
Hg	1A1a	9733446	9614223	9399860	4994822	4841530	4547686	2853393	2345071	2339755	1656643	1657286	1770836	1546086	1916511	1755925	2334356	2236818	2213030	1808019	1279630	1484940	1321094	1825179	1612044	1340057	1239156	886358	762501	761939	640246
Hg	1A1b	26632	29087	29832	30856	32077	30500	30344	30890	29638	27212	25682	26074	25052	24178	36116	36544	27188	45607	45267	66659	297218	45816	29277	71681	22054	23387	23580	20738	28325	18388
Hg	1A2b	112032	213242	201675	240892	210097	189732	196734	155376	147667	78277	166905	51091	257848	70224	60993	26803	36579	24781	310401	332841	34758	28428	27499	24600	23047	21340	18960	17739	16950	15581
Hg	1A2c	530548	591378	567737	478773	472767	390987	287491	227652	147177	147728	82125	152694	163973	170442	161996	181585	180287	187253	186658	165077	165912	202257	155266	114548	84792	43081	39900	31436	28195	24967
Hg	1A2f	195975	166292	155469	156808	175013	172899	177293	116562	480918	254375	259113	226322	249872	237557	242145	297040	232528	278079	267900	198468	246538	243365	254348	242838	208001	168336	168165	178219	307775	239447
Hg	1A2gviii	808898	804207	1040831	566825	438077	574835	281457	332123	285708	349717	357185	284241	275629	282610	260308	298118	294343	204721	313045	372462	502419	457413	553297	810828	763856	573233	527818	452686	382976	337784
Hg	1A4bi	711346	765809	683972	742294	664257	528799	554789	519117	488185	491537	410194	390083	322847	281140	251156	203503	192953	198408	218124	194513	215743	202675	210199	217767	208829	219463	219803	231978	235268	221754
Hg	2B10a	8001722	8804498	7349764	3210213	3515764	4132805	2345569	1090509	1202391	1438182	1394448	1442790	1243940	1228680	1181320	1142007	1321672	880370	951040	794040	811040	681340	374340	407340	365340	300340	120740	170740	225740	121740
Hg	2C1	534095	500840	494600	497202	511237	524445	534799	550098	521827	526648	509540	454835	379509	587527	420382	480480	610924	677843	433432	455931	374502	757922	417280	685151	553907	481210	355790	512259	477123	521503
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2383833	1867667	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000	51041
Hg	2C7c	5217503	4502325	4861114	4697328	4038187	3402267	2799335	2225474	1667701	1083713	695995	655073	617163	614674	484345	524335	444724	314519	326488	202350	246338	279337	258254	255966	240537	208496	228563	380487	230875	400437
Hg	5C1a	5865317	5834756	5525311	446531	348199	278536	210799	6243	1949	888	1320
Hg	5C1biii	37173	37173	35049	32925	43616	176166	70796	79212	56662	20124	42376	35399	42030	189230	30276	56002	40394	35806	45825	419095	109742	40968	26100	20390	14952	18561	15166	12720	18231	19662
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	753741	772203	784856	830443	870792	874990	913662	935289	976061	1026347	917850	843956	636527	591487	557577	550850	590653	591882	602086	621681	612141

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2f	8959	7407	6806	6882	7840	7742	7603	8670	4625	5511	4857	4814	1908	2044	24648	1604	1330	1094	1444	1462	2610	1304	668	1147	1207	856	456	625	584	527
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3155595671	3063012234	3371509056	3685433015	3957983925	4131111116	4173073089	4173645825	4430363041	96199581	82019188	72444295	67568981	62546578	75806687	72447228	67894586	58692006	54399852	35782361	34587585	25234205	24101968	20442173	24284512	28021543	33772139	36854048	39070249	41957872
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3155595671	3063012234	3371509056	3685433015	3957983925	4131111116	4173073089	4173645825	4430363041	96199581	82019188	72444295	67568981	62546578	75806687	72447228	67894586	58692006	54399852	35782361	34587585	25234205	24101968	20442173	24284512	28021543	33772139	36854048	39070249	41957872
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	3155595671	3063012234	3371509056	3685433015	3957983925	4131111116	4173073089	4173645825	4430363041	96199581	82019188	72444295	67568981	62546578	75806687	72447228	67894586	58692006	54399852	35782361	34587585	25234205	24101968	20442173	24284512	28021543	33772139	36854048	39070249	41957872
PCB	2K	5771871336	5386317196	5035571349	4715000000	4420768000	4149686168	3899088759	3666735076	3450730410	3249462462	846968623	793069950	743596552	698013035	655871838	616796732	580469549	546619520	515014685	485454976	457766640	431797726	407414440	384498185	362943160	342654398	323546172	305540683	288566978	272560063
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6763296900	6288213235	5931625808	5603410956	5248742807	4933415036	4653750122	4420312588	4140479713	3784827468	1365716463	1301944102	1216465045	1139750262	1105768767	1039963761	979513162	940383930	892406573	791159766	770837630	748221137	708132057	682185113	647951791	611399366	550628261	529150620	513679112	488764335
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6763291642	6288208580	5931621188	5603406503	5248739486	4933412649	4653747570	4420310308	4140478123	3784826310	1365716029	1301943733	1216464684	1139749957	1105768506	1039963480	979512930	940383706	892406432	791159624	770837473	748221026	708131951	682185039	647951732	611399312	550628193	529150576	513679082	488764311
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6763291642	6288208580	5931621188	5603406503	5248739486	4933412649	4653747570	4420310308	4140478123	3784826310	1365716029	1301943733	1216464684	1139749957	1105768506	1039963480	979512930	940383706	892406432	791159624	770837473	748221026	708131951	682185039	647951732	611399312	550628193	529150576	513679082	488764311