Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91554	91527	91642	91580	96305	91541	91636	91804	91568	91491	91401	91566	91558	91482	91344	91344	91344	91344	91344	91344
NMVOC	2D3d	250456	220500	203782	205798	211249	185774	175423	172572	168918	154085	143427	138220	136815	133796	132570	126763	129657	123006	103779	90135	84680	94312	90309	88597	87491	82694	82083	78912	78719
SOx	1A2f	47136	39617	36571	36957	41743	47256	31814	34663	32433	30607	25432	23441	25607	24082	21821	20042	15230	12545	8436	4164	4508	6953	7783	7373	4909	5513	4860	4314	5465
NH3	11C	8130	8133	8135	8136	8139	8141	8143	8145	8147	8150	8153	8156	8160	8164	8205	8249	8292	8336	8395	8302	8491	8539	8635	8346	8471	8092	8383	8430	8535
NH3	3Da2c		1	1	1	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	77	78	126	246	258	287	312	480	963	1726	2402	3404	5005	6531	8450	9154	9291
CO	1A1a	113032	111011	108232	98532	106406	105216	103315	43312	59446	53170	66368	67453	65210	70730	71801	73815	80111	79671	76810	67317	71273	71843	85377	82154	69925	63374	45267	43212	53199

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	11C	5784	5903	6016	6851	6135	6169	6303	6329	6259	6199	6125	6132	6099	6106	6253	6352	6473	6555	6574
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	165610420	163024463	167258730	153752545	164339332	138752242	102946372	62196402	21328290	16463170	17858446	14633423	12158352	11767979	13178642	10260271	10071133	2550030	2160736	2427278	3138570	2729567	4757309	3623001	2889504	3185752	2619769	2484163	2104466
Pb	1A2f	4959953	4387761	4155109	4184651	4552602	4515548	4577115	4708036	4761926	4971500	3332921	2412059	7640374	4321523	8711958	3635209	878568	1603605	1761060	872021	687409	1630937	2889304	2261684	1807524	2808154	1162532	2377850	1682988
Pb	1A3bi	1918868568	1718881210	1543037222	1367799968	1161660362	959273735	819487987	720868542	529756801	280864856	1537672	1353008	1307749	1292635	1299090	1363324	1366107	1029618	1008888	988196	961078	959451	965573	954949	962482	974886	992432	993082	975545
Pb	1A3bii	203883330	178738220	148791094	124865596	101591149	76951118	60766863	49894136	34959324	15709665	247827	238487	238625	245602	252785	261306	268528	269127	255728	252785	258592	260519	263855	267506	279471	293615	312238	316079	314954
Pb	2B10a	93111183	93168792	93236566	93287397	93402614	80227998	69609142	108877486	84610322	26068080	10656304	13094861	10221192	12597043	13821738	13846792	3942473	2879482	3548917	3951815	3818313	3957855	4270799	2031696	3075610	3763508	4727462	3657462	3319462
Pb	2C5	6809333	6536461	7068133	7320113	7152399	6680445	7135831	6033127	6122863	5061668	5159414	8341298	9082147	6750256	3327447	1260561	1100000	1561943	1085943	1579163	1433258	1281443	1780353	1122153	1371743	1487283	841913	1126736	685188
Pb	2G	6067813	6067813	6067813	6067813	6067813	6067813	6067813	5395206	5860607	9858199	10777036	10351989	12204979	19593585	13994543	15446392	14952716	13194490	9334177	7673260	9434413	9089068	9948285	6868065	7997142	8630085	8307012	8180757	8004552
Pb	5C1a	219336902	216861842	204028198	146772063	81003807	52878350	37609595	339002	3435	3402	2662
Cd	1A1a	5627133	5393373	5436037	2388073	2395177	1707798	1386052	708803	774881	667232	461887	615029	581695	592013	720197	865826	862590	167317	112020	192453	129538	156340	171977	161249	191311	114349	154863	131224	117250
Cd	1A2b	41797	53418	52484	59643	56842	50373	54974	52442	48275	17574	17763	21321	27318	22188	17576	11632	31303	11271	20116	48844	182024	35418	16508	1630	1331	1239	1091	1020	1016
Cd	1A2gviii	831548	1094431	1078173	905865	955008	870687	816899	655506	558369	456336	374956	412570	368180	433431	551111	516880	459337	433660	397343	495033	642897	600177	522527	566137	790441	862286	872809	1026622	1123004
Cd	1A4bi	339392	363951	339165	382611	360017	335401	387318	354311	358689	377390	381512	420938	387138	418905	430913	442733	459657	464603	543801	582684	741441	646064	803671	941408	892860	1001148	1068262	1063777	1156984
Cd	2C1	1400312	1308205	1290259	1306110	1348207	1379156	1408185	1447858	1367941	1180077	1062093	971842	800155	909483	916934	936437	941632	949804	903100	661560	593712	1046647	650756	732707	984755	700567	424043	493544	517926
Cd	2C5	315305	297726	331978	348211	337407	307002	336339	193412	224007	171447	142820	76017	94188	68788	47100	13369	13994	35751	53706	14928	25486	37095	32964	14894	16001	18864	15222	10976	10194
Cd	2C6	2368323	2453851	2419446	2569067	2401056	2401072	1684035	2298035	979989	1253035	1052035	831035	979035	242486	1335	1005	1005	1005	1005	705	696	660	634	710	763	738	698	713	713
Cd	2C7c	1383383	1195088	1287303	1244504	1073647	908911	752105	603387	458541	317829	221119	178889	187465	171176	143377	145501	168542	96029	109312	66652	111935	95522	103183	103241	96835	80403	82224	69127	69108
Cd	2G	599405	572795	515744	565727	546384	474602	488393	471615	332462	337417	340993	338747	350334	352002	334477	324480	317359	297025	291957	303774	295818	279641	275199	244301	234856	223256	214055	206822	193521
Cd	3F	2702587	2376949	1738721	58087
Cd	5C1a	7170629	7089714	6670153	720999	546019	278514	116216	764	668	305	270
Hg	1A1a	9739458	9656311	9478024	5004136	4855129	4572869	2870944	2240992	2280000	1629139	1677459	1755811	1534135	1913315	1763728	2322235	2233363	2201171	1795205	1264271	1436834	1307113	1815071	1597044	1308347	1210422	846967	727685	692943
Hg	1A1b	26632	29087	29832	30856	32077	30500	30344	30890	29638	27212	25682	26074	25052	24345	36116	35836	26482	44901	45771	67164	297218	45816	30588	71681	21344	22681	22875	20034	28325
Hg	1A2b	112032	213242	201675	240892	210097	189732	196734	155376	147667	78277	166905	51090	257848	70224	60993	26803	36578	24780	310401	332841	34758	28428	27499	24600	23047	21340	18961	17741	16950
Hg	1A2c	530546	591376	567736	478772	472766	390986	287489	227650	147174	147727	82124	152692	163971	170440	161995	181583	180285	187252	186656	165077	165912	202257	155266	114549	84792	43082	39899	31446	28204
Hg	1A2f	196275	166592	155769	157108	175313	173199	177593	116862	481078	254675	259413	226622	250442	238127	242015	297610	232360	278311	268132	198000	246070	243597	254580	242913	208141	168476	168370	178424	167948
Hg	1A2gviii	808956	804185	1040799	566794	438056	574811	281430	332086	285638	349679	357153	284210	275598	282575	260278	298090	294309	204684	313008	372461	522730	457415	575848	834380	785600	573232	524400	446513	369350
Hg	1A4bi	707781	760434	678595	736916	642589	499891	518644	475750	444853	449961	370429	352128	286700	246801	218625	172783	164046	171317	189223	169217	188632	179186	184899	194276	187147	195971	196380	207421	210069
Hg	2B10a	8001722	8804498	7349764	3210213	3515764	4132805	2345569	1090509	1202391	1438182	1394378	1442720	1243870	1228610	1181250	1142007	1321672	880370	951040	794040	811040	681340	374340	407340	365340	300340	120740	170740	225740
Hg	2C1	532629	499588	493284	495831	509842	523007	533451	548680	520581	525070	509264	452682	386098	571736	420385	480480	610924	678114	433433	455931	374502	757922	417280	685151	553907	480510	355090	511562	476423
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2383833	1867667	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000	51041
Hg	2C7c	5215920	4500879	4859734	4695960	4036786	3400826	2797894	2224002	1666374	1082550	694832	654422	617024	613511	484100	523442	442431	312226	324195	200697	245365	278365	257283	255075	238942	206903	226796	241257	240146
Hg	5C1a	5905224	5838588	5493067	434371	331752	250514	190435	5958	1887	847	1251
Hg	5C1biii	37173	37173	35049	32925	43616	176166	70796	79212	56662	20124	42306	35329	41946	192312	27347	53523	35650	28259	37229	416301	148152	37392	28247	23776	26332	18473	14051	16447	21677
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	754834	773271	785876	831506	871885	876071	914782	936424	977287	1027654	919089	845096	637387	592207	558278	551583	591422	592653	602874	622548

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A2f	8959	7407	6806	6882	7840	7742	7603	8670	4625	5511	4857	4814	1909	2044	24648	1604	1274	860	1157	1129	2276	957	645	1112	1181	830	440	599	568
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3155278407	3062720346	3371204480	3685077680	3957679480	4130764242	4172700833	4173482139	4429711453	95541432	81429656	71867496	67038607	62153134	75380536	72024014	67509838	58439572	54398996	35610459	34249894	24997125	23848413	20299113	24337501	27911352	33677043	36975121	39775395
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3155278407	3062720346	3371204480	3685077680	3957679480	4130764242	4172700833	4173482139	4429711453	95541432	81429656	71867496	67038607	62153134	75380536	72024014	67509838	58439572	54398996	35610459	34249894	24997125	23848413	20299113	24337501	27911352	33677043	36975121	39775395
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	3155278407	3062720346	3371204480	3685077680	3957679480	4130764242	4172700833	4173482139	4429711453	95541432	81429656	71867496	67038607	62153134	75380536	72024014	67509838	58439572	54398996	35610459	34249894	24997125	23848413	20299113	24337501	27911352	33677043	36975121	39775395
PCB	2K	5771871336	5386317196	5035571349	4715000000	4420768000	4149686168	3899088759	3666735076	3450730410	3249462462	846968623	793069950	743596552	698013035	655871838	616796732	580469549	546619520	515014685	485454976	457766640	431797726	407414440	384498185	362943160	342654398	323546172	305540683	288566978
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6763010364	6287931070	5931356709	5603139024	5248488150	4933162450	4653662616	4420397810	4140531913	3784890450	1365840971	1302017203	1218687195	1142208907	1106322117	1039732795	980328377	941126146	897930123	795757911	769396112	747427325	710107373	681410932	647073067	610504661	549386373	527759494	512231380
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6763005376	6287926655	5931352307	5603134764	5248485004	4933160220	4653660204	4420395658	4140530426	3784889364	1365840562	1302016859	1218686857	1142208625	1106321879	1039732537	980328168	941125945	897930005	795757791	769395952	747427198	710107241	681410822	647072964	610504561	549386258	527759400	512231297
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6763005376	6287926655	5931352307	5603134764	5248485004	4933160220	4653660204	4420395658	4140530426	3784889364	1365840562	1302016859	1218686857	1142208625	1106321879	1039732537	980328168	941125945	897930005	795757791	769395952	747427198	710107241	681410822	647072964	610504561	549386258	527759400	512231297