Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91554	91527	91642	91580	96305	91541	91636	91804	91568	91491	91401	91566	91558	91482	91344	91344	91344	91344	91344
NMVOC	1B1a	223230	224730	201947	155622	99763	109542	100748	95018	80772	66483	54916	55582	52461	49930	40625	31302	30492	25238	26664	25023	24778	24582	20993	14412	13046	9805	1104	815
NMVOC	2D3d	250456	220500	203782	205798	211249	185774	175423	172572	168913	154085	143432	138230	136926	133946	132746	126941	129905	123267	104115	90272	84862	94577	90790	89082	87876	82968	82967	80359
NH3	3Da2c		1	1	1	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	139	139	228	405	423	480	505	791	1572	2875	3732	5178	7221	9242	11724	12782
CO	1A1a	113001	110971	108170	98452	106256	104662	103239	43096	59196	52865	66044	67026	64723	70179	71242	73198	79487	79089	76387	66705	70593	71048	84566	81341	69159	63076	43745	41077

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	11C	5784	5903	6016	6851	6135	6169	6303	6329	6259	6199	6125	6132	6099	6106	6253	6352	6473	6555
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	165610420	163024463	167257993	153747324	164315236	138728231	102922422	62185629	21314944	16454608	17816013	14613130	12095920	11688153	13046583	10250924	10409018	2717627	2275894	2555968	3151047	2860582	5031758	3677350	2940773	3176314	2861621	2937188
Pb	1A2f	4536316	3964120	3731522	3761055	4128970	4297221	4474292	4664582	4762229	4971826	3333200	2412059	7852574	4371523	8711958	3635209	928568	1653605	1761060	872021	687409	1750937	2889304	2261684	1807524	2808154	1162532	2377850
Pb	1A3bi	1918912048	1718921078	1543073303	1367832665	1161689604	959299143	819509399	720887632	529771190	280872564	1537710	1353036	1307771	1292656	1299109	1363342	1366126	1029622	1008893	988197	961083	959453	965579	954948	962479	974863	992501	993425
Pb	1A3bii	203887949	178742364	148794573	124868580	101593705	76953154	60768448	49895455	34960270	15710092	247830	238505	238652	245633	252818	261339	268565	269161	255764	252814	258624	260550	263888	267535	279499	293621	312114	315125
Pb	2B10a	93111183	93168792	93236566	93287397	93402614	80227998	69609142	108877486	84610322	26068080	10656304	13094861	10221192	12597043	13821738	13846792	3942473	2879482	3548917	3951815	3818313	3957855	4270799	2031696	3045610	3733508	4727462	3657462
Pb	2C5	6746008	6476667	7001460	7250180	7084636	6618788	7068282	5993580	6072181	5012705	5118828	8293339	8990490	6508638	3215000	1209700	1132000	1593943	1117943	1601163	1455258	1303443	1848353	1190153	1439743	1545283	945913	1210736
Pb	2C7a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	13181698	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1115712	3211644	1462437	3027056	10121708	2466173	263142	107559	107559	107559	107844	103703	109720	166224	101995
Pb	5C1a	219336902	216861842	204028198	146772127	81003894	52878464	37609757	339006	3439	3380	2469
Cd	1A1a	5627133	5393373	5436012	2691990	2624238	1818763	1415856	722397	760826	663240	457857	610577	577557	589401	721635	865560	861156	167993	113803	196601	137532	172151	178272	169189	206472	153641	162987	144201
Cd	1A2b	41797	53419	52484	59643	56842	50374	54975	52442	48278	17574	17763	21322	27319	22188	17576	11632	31303	11271	20116	48844	182024	35418	16508	1287	1147	1054	946	1000
Cd	1A2gviii	833770	1096727	1080594	908277	957296	873038	819271	657890	581333	477098	389348	431587	387649	447835	561790	527009	468621	444323	412684	510911	657909	627664	561042	605653	825658	918673	1032353	1233101
Cd	1A4bi	339392	363951	339165	382611	360017	335401	387318	354311	358689	377390	381512	420938	387138	418905	430913	442733	459657	464603	543801	582684	741441	646062	803669	941408	892862	1001149	1064485	1058966
Cd	2C1	1420388	1321007	1304129	1320638	1363105	1395111	1422318	1464109	1379491	1186272	1062268	971997	792384	909565	917639	937122	941463	949673	903082	661615	594471	1046714	650808	732760	984813	701318	424803	494311
Cd	2C5	339266	320350	357206	374673	363047	330331	361898	200218	230147	174860	148638	76898	95006	66897	46694	12952	14146	37497	55327	15138	26105	38640	33783	15568	16837	18947	15168	10783
Cd	2C6	2368323	2453851	2419446	2569067	2401056	2401072	1684035	2298035	979989	1253035	1052035	831035	979035	242486	1335	1005	1005	1005	1005	705
Cd	2C7a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	367762	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49360	19990	19909	45941	19066	12770	12303	4450	4450	4498	3395	7409	4234	6393
Cd	2C7c	1383383	1195088	1287303	1244504	1073647	908911	752105	603387	458541	317829	221119	178889	187465	171176	143377	145501	168542	96029	109312	66652	111935	95522	103183	103241	96835	80407	71265	73527
Cd	2G	470226	457216	410455	446758	428854	375788	375961	373230	251619	256574	260150	254551	261289	272466	257189	250681	245444	229829	224784	233896	229451	217972	215795	191635	185248	176828	169996	164834
Cd	5C1a	7170629	7089714	6670153	1141803	699227	337594	134064	999	662	293	243
Hg	1A1a	9739458	9656311	9477973	5163665	4913393	4493550	2844106	2390220	2271266	1627071	1675624	1755125	1533203	1912662	1767059	2320509	2232934	2202361	1796867	1265538	1482355	1309659	1824560	1610520	1333425	1187639	857951	743825
Hg	1A1b	26632	29087	29832	30856	32077	30500	30344	30890	29638	27212	25682	26074	25052	24345	36116	35836	26482	44901	45771	67164	297218	45816	30588	71681	21344	22681	22879	20035
Hg	1A2b	112032	213242	201676	240892	210097	189733	196734	155376	147668	78277	166905	51091	257848	70224	60993	26803	36578	24780	310401	332841	34758	28428	27499	17438	19089	17296	15690	14849
Hg	1A2c	530548	591378	567738	478774	472768	390988	287491	227652	147183	147728	82125	152693	163972	170441	161995	181583	180285	187251	186656	165077	165912	202257	155266	114549	84792	43082	39842	31409
Hg	1A2f	188607	158922	148120	149456	167646	168024	173841	112217	476201	249767	254488	221592	245142	232827	240215	294880	230560	275851	265452	197000	244570	241337	252340	240693	205941	166137	166170	176224
Hg	1A2gviii	804166	801110	1040844	566840	435027	572718	279655	330387	286689	350471	357698	283232	276569	281538	258971	297533	293601	204024	313670	373145	523377	458599	577507	836082	787117	575661	398271	343576
Hg	2B10a	8001722	8804498	7349764	3210213	3515764	4132805	2345569	1090509	1202391	1438182	1394378	1442720	1243870	1228610	1181250	1142007	1321672	880370	951040	794040	811040	681340	374340	407340	365040	300040	120740	170740
Hg	2C1	537232	501895	495864	498544	512648	526122	536067	551916	522441	531118	510058	432118	357220	551081	420241	480212	599874	665924	433287	455951	374555	758015	417388	685291	554082	481409	356028	512539
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000	51041
Hg	2C7c	5215920	4500879	4859734	4695960	4036786	3400826	2797894	2224002	1666374	1082550	694832	654422	617024	613511	484100	523442	442431	312226	324195	200697	245365	278365	257283	255075	238942	206917	184656	258178
Hg	5C1a	5905224	5838588	5493067	655634	371707	209479	175771	7382	1883	842	1245
Hg	5C1biii	163408	163408	154070	144732	80600	271512	110984	165487	107126	42704	59028	41403	56925	368048	32540	80789	37422	33096	25240	441201	112626	39806	21527	19383	10937	15860	11593	9910
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	756194	774714	787442	833165	873506	877753	916616	938231	979121	1029685	926279	856544	660919	619613	589140	582086	624129	625550	635102

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A2f	8845	7279	6674	6759	7728	7679	7579	8664	4596	5481	4829	4798	1893	2028	24632	1588	1258	844	1141	1113	2260	941	663	1096	1165	814	424	583
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3154592929	3062037336	3370541463	3684323525	3956971260	4130066599	4171912284	4172706792	4428908611	94813710	80767725	71201709	66421545	61488328	74729025	71366964	66828880	57756440	53737808	35038962	33706109	24476819	23351268	19903755	23951362	27481160	33415096	36050594
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	3154592929	3062037336	3370541463	3684323525	3956971260	4130066599	4171912284	4172706792	4428908611	94813710	80767725	71201709	66421545	61488328	74729025	71366964	66828880	57756440	53737808	35038962	33706109	24476819	23351268	19903755	23951362	27481160	33415096	36050594
PCB	2K	5771871336	5386317196	5035571349	4715000000	4420768000	4149686168	3899088759	3666735076	3450730410	3249462462	846968623	793069950	743596552	698013035	655871838	616796732	580469549	546619520	515014685	485454976	457766640	431797726	407414440	384498185	362943160	342654398	323546172	305540683
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6744414956	6266907015	5909747653	5580673583	5228057381	4914999321	4635870689	4402608943	4122741354	3774203091	1355156633	1291697943	1208707848	1138031911	1104329131	1038088983	978803503	939323284	895970415	793820342	767320782	745208234	707741281	678915728	645136549	608416953	546864316	525118223
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6744409962	6266902596	5909743246	5580669319	5228054231	4914997087	4635868273	4402606788	4122739864	3774202003	1355156224	1291697598	1208707510	1138031628	1104328893	1038088724	978803294	939323084	895970299	793820225	767320624	745208108	707741149	678915618	645136447	608416852	546864199	525118128