Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91554	91527	91642	91580	96305	91541	91636	91804	91568	91491	91401	91566	91558	91482	91344	91344	91344	91344
NMVOC	2D3d	250407	220453	203736	205755	211207	185734	175393	172543	168884	154056	143438	138235	136930	133538	131945	126152	129421	122993	104226	90348	84923	94595	90602	88351	87117	82081	80408
NMVOC	3B1b	55777	55081	55049	54652	54942	55029	56063	54502	54026	53459	52365	49632	48216	49489	50355	52283	51292	49938	48900	48752	49151	48297	48130	47724	47202	47366	47955
NH3	11C	8130	8133	8135	8136	8139	8141	8143	8145	8147	8150	8153	8156	8160	8164	8205	8249	8292	8336	8395	8302	8491	8539	8635	8346	8471	8092	8383
NH3	3Da2c		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	125	125	214	381	392	449	465	759	1718	2796	3432	4507	6276	7862	9125
CO	1A1a	112930	110898	108074	98337	106148	104596	103264	43113	59205	52876	66054	67036	64731	70188	71252	73209	79500	79105	76414	66726	70604	71057	84579	81354	69014	62912	43199

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11C	5784	5903	6016	6851	6135	6169	6303	6329	6259	6199	6125	6132	6099	6106	6253	6352	6486
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2b	584313	876450	838587	1037440	909223	828468	921833	797896	763690	466957	257418	447513	307535	526182	408590	142843	563824	265342	846023	2654544	279504	533455	102518	47615	51633	46879	42651
Pb	1A2f	4536316	3964120	3731522	3761055	4128970	4297221	4474292	4664582	4762229	4971826	3333200	2412059	7852574	4371523	8711958	3635209	928568	1653605	1761060	872021	687409	1750937	2889304	2261684	1807524	2808154	1162532
Pb	1A3bi	1918926815	1718934455	1543085375	1367843198	1161698643	959306849	819517638	720894520	529776227	280875197	1537529	1352851	1307570	1292459	1298921	1363163	1365958	1029462	1008741	988044	960912	959256	965384	954753	962431	974781	1000187
Pb	1A3bii	203889532	178743772	148795758	124869572	101594539	76953824	60769119	49895995	34960667	15710307	247891	238582	238743	245727	252911	261435	268657	269250	255850	252902	258715	260671	263994	267626	279639	293757	310317
Pb	2B10a	93093266	93150386	93217585	93267985	93382224	80206544	69445042	108716300	84529010	25964124	10582207	12990054	10143813	12541147	13762652	13647541	3736284	2802071	3492466	3865466	3717466	3860156	4173156	1923131	2976782	3641204	4661700
Pb	2C5	6251746	5982405	6507198	6755918	6590374	6124526	6574020	5985216	6061239	5004350	5119894	8295340	8997624	6589386	3225000	1190533	1154000	1559000	1083000	1556220	1390315	1238500	1757410	1099210	1368800	1481283	855913
Pb	2C7a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	13181698	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1115712	3211644	1462437	3027056	4549590	1108516	313630	67318	67318	67318	68755	62623	70848	149532
Pb	2G	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	12159840	19231520	13953632	15350720	14866208	13167084	9156454	7673047	9309293	8866046	9647094	6664796	7994144	8629561	8306852
Pb	5C1a	229924658	227632936	218374379	161024846	94339055	64679522	37612565	339069	3518	3464	2528
Cd	1A1a	5280994	5041241	4967002	2593607	2526532	1754500	1420633	725715	763019	664259	458601	611038	578417	590066	722714	869448	862976	169404	114708	197950	139142	178244	182085	170284	208090	152623	160147
Cd	1A2b	41788	53409	52476	59631	56832	50364	54962	52430	48266	17574	17763	21322	27319	22188	17576	11632	31303	11271	20116	48844	182024	35418	16418	1284	1146	1088	1019
Cd	1A2gviii	793449	1056404	1040272	867956	911503	826170	772361	610964	536180	434273	349587	392520	350371	413930	528284	492785	430955	405448	346208	451997	574112	562192	484240	473138	635287	881887	921947
Cd	1A4bi	339392	363951	339165	382611	360017	335401	387318	354311	358689	377390	381512	420938	387138	418905	430913	442733	459657	467007	546408	582650	744417	648231	805523	941408	892860	996394	1015059
Cd	2C1	1420324	1320954	1304073	1320579	1363046	1395049	1422261	1464048	1379439	1186220	1062317	972046	792413	909645	917218	936701	941042	949212	904627	662738	594845	1057584	652482	734478	990976	702539	423978
Cd	2C5	342664	323559	360784	378426	366683	333640	365524	162285	230147	174860	148638	76898	93908	66362	46944	13361	14141	36976	55543	14793	25796	38332	33505	15802	16556	18683	14904
Cd	2C6	2367981	2453526	2419116	2568730	2400719	2400730	1683705	2297705	979674	1252705	1051705	830705	978705	163646
Cd	2C7a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	367762	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49360	19990	19909	20650	8570	5740	5530	2000	2000	2000	1500	3500	2000
Cd	2C7c	1355155	1169311	1262696	1220113	1048650	883220	726414	577132	432100	284126	181598	175654	182614	168255	135403	141336	164938	92717	106301	63792	109033	92340	100201	100268	93294	81488	74157
Cd	5C1a	7516768	7441846	7139162	1274568	829481	421030	136849	1029	678	300	249
Hg	1A1a	9454403	9366320	9091729	5107172	4861453	4453674	2850369	2414729	2277497	1629999	1679434	1760532	1534351	1913870	1769209	2327291	2236737	2205132	1798089	1266951	1487441	1312244	1827823	1613335	1335487	1188948	859885
Hg	1A1b	21155	23081	23667	24488	25489	24296	24222	24758	23799	15989	15219	15866	16071	25312	36900	43662	32273	53615	52800	78271	316076	51447	32494	76394	22372	25882	30487
Hg	1A2b	112026	213236	201670	240884	210090	189726	196726	155368	147660	78277	166905	51091	257848	70224	60993	26803	36578	24780	310401	332841	34758	28428	27440	17434	19086	17296	15716
Hg	1A2c	530548	591378	567738	478774	472768	390988	287491	227652	147183	147728	82125	152693	163972	170441	161995	181583	180285	187251	186656	165077	165912	202257	155265	114550	84794	43050	39868
Hg	1A2f	188607	158922	148120	149456	167646	168024	173841	112217	476201	249767	254488	221592	245142	232827	240215	294880	230560	275851	265452	197000	244570	241337	252340	240693	205941	166137	166170
Hg	1A2gviii	802438	799348	1039114	565110	433029	570683	277619	328342	284751	348634	356015	281529	274992	280059	257499	296049	291960	202341	310798	370600	519767	455751	574188	830377	778908	599169	406844
Hg	2B10a	8024375	8827768	7373761	3234756	3541543	4159930	2346890	1090847	1207870	1453067	1395265	1442307	1244647	1229487	1180957	1141500	1321050	879550	950550	793550	810550	680655	373500	406500	364500	299210	120000
Hg	2C1	537232	501895	495864	498544	512648	526122	536067	551916	522441	531065	509968	432026	357193	551061	420241	480212	599874	665924	435402	460194	377489	769475	420930	693121	559402	484585	355578
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000	34500
Hg	2C7c	5212092	4497383	4856397	4692652	4033395	3397342	2794410	2220441	1662790	1079128	705658	666577	627697	625237	497980	522131	441868	311973	323942	200594	245563	278463	257081	254795	238512	223495	207996
Hg	5C1a	6190279	6128579	5879310	731868	440949	261251	179422	7605	1927	863	1275
Hg	5C1biii	157871	157871	148850	139829	77869	262313	107224	159880	103496	41257	57028	40000	54996	358069	31437	78052	36920	32583	24722	440933	112199	39298	21004	18871	10434	15357	11077
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	756194	774714	787442	833165	873506	877753	916616	938231	979121	1029685	920985	846880	638737	593507	559377	552679	592598	593947

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A2f	8845	7279	6674	6759	7728	7679	7579	8664	4596	5481	4829	4798	1893	2028	24632	1588	1258	844	1141	1113	2260	941	663	1096	1165	814	424
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3154592929	3062037337	3370541464	3684323525	3956971261	4130066600	4171912285	4172706793	4428908611	94813711	80767726	71201710	66421545	61487804	74727976	71365391	66826782	57754350	53735896	35035660	33702378	24473222	23347711	19900767	23948057	27477292	30834474
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	3154592929	3062037337	3370541464	3684323525	3956971261	4130066600	4171912285	4172706793	4428908611	94813711	80767726	71201710	66421545	61487804	74727976	71365391	66826782	57754350	53735896	35035660	33702378	24473222	23347711	19900767	23948057	27477292	30834474
PCB	2K	5771871336	5386317196	5035571349	4715000000	4420768000	4149686168	3899088759	3666735076	3450730410	3249462462	846968623	793069950	743596552	698013035	655871838	616796732	580469549	546619520	515014685	485454976	457766640	431797726	407414440	384498185	362943160	342654398	323546172
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6744469041	6266961101	5909801738	5580727668	5228111464	4915053404	4635924544	4402662799	4122795290	3774257179	1355210465	1291751776	1208761683	1138081734	1104380226	1038144196	978864788	939445020	896130682	793908761	767527087	745369274	707907467	679104327	645425804	608538253	547031344
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	6744464047	6266956681	5909797332	5580723404	5228108314	4915051170	4635922129	4402660644	4122793801	3774256090	1355210056	1291751431	1208761344	1138081451	1104379988	1038143937	978864578	939444819	896130565	793908642	767526928	745369145	707907333	679104216	645425700	608538150	547031226