Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A2f	88029	72274	66671	67669	76713	72760	52353	54226	56758	48615	44860	37116	34984	37169	38391	37541	33058	30784	21396	12015	15109	17530	18077	17932	15749	18173
NOx	1A3bi	852652	842077	822580	760070	705680	654374	615938	558202	504157	455523	399938	373201	343758	311944	290284	271220	256353	234190	226915	177556	165078	159034	154207	150455	148934	147539
NOx	1A3bii	106643	108433	104717	103046	102503	98540	96622	94627	93481	87636	83587	81180	76798	74915	73775	71901	70363	69491	66240	63273	62353	64781	69460	76797	84533	92650
NOx	1A3biii	277686	276909	266844	269507	262259	257497	253080	250609	248755	245675	237248	232828	228029	224924	221562	214850	210742	210328	188797	156446	147969	131133	116006	101244	86651	70235
NOx	1A3di(i)	191029	190029	194126	192659	172938	181263	200389	219356	227173	163428	143881	145966	113209	134366	154564	165650	213265	225516	263041	251044	212465	237795	200316	199593	202138	169544
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91554	91527	91642	91580	96305	91541	91636	91804	91568	91491	91401	91566	91558	91482	91344	91344	91344
NMVOC	3B1b	51238	50614	51308	50814	50900	50924	52685	50894	51043	50634	50193	47947	47135	49021	50066	50120	49658	50930	48737	48486	49296	48521	48399	47736	48076	48407
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	2946677	2886791	2787660	2626732	2489743	2320977	2240400	2137539	1972799	1781960	1630669	1550289	1457443	1343156	1256494	1174057	1128845	1086493	1011539	919072	899260	878170	866234	841984	840558	835355
SOx	1A3dii	26081	24534	22857	22421	23434	23919	23672	22891	23142	22983	21048	20361	21159	20809	20941	21708	20700	14659	11310	10704	8280	7560	6995	6384	6427	1351
NH3	11C	8130	8133	8135	8136	8139	8141	8143	8145	8147	8150	8153	8156	8160	8164	8205	8249	8292	8336	8395	8302	8491	8539	8635	8346	8471	8092
NH3	3B1a	50481	49114	48349	48314	49251	48179	48902	48150	47088	47870	45812	45469	45170	44892	44462	43727	43588	41440	40647	40019	40720	40952	40613	40317	42747	43725
NH3	5E	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	172	172	256	272	325	392	442	775	2134	3621	4018	5365	7067	9066
CO	1A1a	112930	110898	108073	98337	106148	104596	103077	43100	59606	52958	66631	67343	65758	70389	71398	73188	79470	79112	76365	66630	69868	69937	83305	79736	67125	59988
CO	1A2a	327910	308538	323170	324000	332260	336558	335239	341646	328052	325633	242814	282757	221848	200935	222623	230140	229067	209665	190437	166243	117734	123504	151431	183211	213803	175151

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	11C	5784	5903	6016	6851	6135	6169	6303	6329	6259	6199	6125	6132	6099	6106	6253	6352
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2b	584344	876483	838619	1037484	909262	972393	827596	774267	731551	467124	257437	447862	307912	526367	408831	142848	563830	265342	846018	2654536	279507	533459	103105	50272	51908	47131
Pb	1A2f	4536316	3964120	3731522	3761055	4128970	4297221	4474292	4664582	4762229	4407015	3320264	2406472	7082167	4871880	8454776	3631472	1148300	1873605	1760932	872021	687410	1750938	2888450	2260578	1806077	2805141
Pb	1A3bi	1918387437	1718508907	1542569126	1367498838	1161396055	959055796	819304447	720689156	529620365	280642484	1535151	1360084	1311348	1303766	1317567	1381579	1379096	1029100	1008363	987704	960339	958721	964758	954280	961710	979176
Pb	1A3bii	203846915	178705629	148771839	124857268	101584251	76946302	60760850	49888036	34954771	15699548	247761	238878	238870	246064	253396	261871	268960	269200	255781	252833	258749	260657	263975	267656	279620	291745
Pb	2C5	6251746	5982405	6507198	6755918	6590374	6124526	6574020	5985216	6061239	5004350	5119894	8295340	8997624	6589386	3225000	1190533	1154000	1559000	1083000	1556220	1390315	1238500	1757410	1099210	1368800	1481283
Pb	2C7a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	13181698	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1115712	3211644	1462437	3027056	4549590	1108516	313630	67318	67318	67318	68755	62623	62623
Cd	1A1a	5278493	5038611	4964658	2591349	2524412	1752912	1383776	724092	761075	660834	457701	607163	571926	584567	718839	870400	869241	167600	109640	186129	107889	150697	155667	145841	185593	152311
Cd	1A2b	41797	53419	52484	59643	56842	59781	43495	50747	46802	17588	17765	21351	27350	22203	17596	11633	31304	11271	20116	48844	182024	35418	16658	1473	1297	1236
Cd	1A2gviii	788854	1049110	1032737	852202	902404	817245	774111	614222	550286	449248	361233	403962	375521	450833	582630	536041	480981	447444	376665	501839	638075	640568	561719	570127	810601	882236
Cd	1A3di(i)	373977	355746	365104	376981	318154	386219	410292	499889	462147	293699	221036	198888	164932	204317	307735	373182	477422	597022	748945	694096	569183	657192	483712	420126	357286	260154
Cd	1A4bi	339392	363951	339085	382610	360017	335401	387318	354311	358689	377390	381510	420938	387138	418906	430913	442669	459657	467007	546407	582649	744364	650243	806716	942726	892894	994491
Cd	2C1	1420324	1320954	1304073	1320579	1363046	1395049	1422261	1464048	1379439	1186220	1062317	972046	792413	909645	917218	936701	941042	949212	903113	661648	594003	1046745	650841	736667	984029	626085
Cd	2C3	42468	42700	39819	42317	44520	46154	46378	47924	50372	111025	173520	79934	49820	76954	118873	113123	110508	122196	120279	51664	43491	44200	26946	24599	18498	19088
Cd	2C5	342664	323559	360784	378426	366683	333640	365524	162285	230147	174860	148638	76898	93908	66362	46944	13361	14141	36976	55543	14793	25796	38332	33505	15802	16556	18594
Cd	2C6	2367981	2453526	2419116	2568730	2400719	2400730	1683705	2297705	979674	1252705	1051705	830705	978705	646
Cd	2C7a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	367762	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49360	19990	19909	20650	8570	5740	5530	2000	2000	2000	1500	1500
Cd	2C7c	1248327	1077213	1163062	1123873	966161	814005	669743	532436	399016	263125	168370	163242	171012	156707	125438	130916	155850	86480	99995	59781	104464	86654	94978	95079	88301	75927
Cd	5C1a	7461008	7386086	7083402	1263314	817949	414587	169595
Hg	1A1a	9453612	9365496	9091010	5106463	4860771	4453016	2803669	2556771	2278665	1630347	1680705	1764405	1537084	1918682	1772697	2330371	2238317	2213671	1802680	1272505	1464612	1269735	1784913	1567270	1337979	1202138
Hg	1A1b	21083	23002	23586	24404	25402	24214	24141	24677	23722	16242	15132	16104	16795	26049	36050	41398	30615	52242	52405	78611	320919	53597	35519	79184	22469	25442
Hg	1A2b	112032	213242	201676	240892	210097	212978	203841	152166	139828	78284	166904	51107	257865	70232	61004	26804	36580	24780	310399	332839	34759	28430	27505	18336	19097	17300
Hg	1A2c	530548	591378	567738	478774	472768	390988	411487	232487	132930	147768	82130	152744	164024	170483	162043	181583	180286	187253	186658	165077	165914	202259	155432	115773	82668	43218
Hg	1A2f	188607	158922	148120	149456	167646	168024	173841	112217	484421	250109	253781	221538	244642	231827	240215	294877	230561	275848	265452	197003	244586	241359	252367	240693	205941	166187
Hg	1A2gviii	802634	799390	1039169	564779	432994	369510	278177	308946	342139	350713	357105	283545	277524	283216	261260	298315	294443	204490	312400	373076	521866	459427	576303	759929	772411	600176
Hg	2B10a	8024375	8827768	7373761	3234756	3541543	4159930	2346890	1090847	1207870	1453067	1395265	1442307	1244647	1229487	1180957	1141892	1321050	879550	950550	793550	810550	680655	373500	406500	364500	299355
Hg	2C1	537232	501895	495864	498544	512648	526122	536067	551916	522441	531065	509968	432026	357193	551513	420632	480583	600253	666328	432887	455527	374136	757611	416955	682545	548751	475562
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000
Hg	2C7c	4801332	4143261	4473296	4322604	3716221	3131204	2576507	2048579	1535582	998378	654796	618851	583089	580835	459663	482064	406922	287994	299693	185173	227995	256600	237000	234844	219314	202111
Hg	5A	617913	576055	533376	490333	447238	404016	400407	396846	393335	390122	386825	383661	380626	377667	374932	373069	370834	369005	367173	364864	362846	360901	358279	355483	353119	350798
Hg	5C1a	6144359	6082659	5833390	725406	434819	257254	222356
Hg	5C1biii	261026	261026	246110	231195	128750	433711	177285	264348	171122	68215	94291	66137	98481	537222	41305	78487	49793	42392	32695	542918	126642	43405	23078	20194	10236	16842
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	756194	774714	787442	833165	873506	877753	916616	938231	979121	1029685	920985	846880	638737	593507	559377	552679	596020

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2f	8799	7234	6621	6707	7682	7634	7525	8606	4543	5351	4760	5019	2014	2234	24774	1823	1622	1069	1338	1428	2858	1032	709	1290	1353	884
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3752793995	3661627077	4107937132	4567891876	5061002820	5290989211	5293170710	5371216013	5675410237	91089775	76974975	67793295	63276582	58538414	71980410	68633628	64341384	55177612	51230445	33652267	32383138	23036613	22003874	18464873	22574372	27447233
PCB	2K	5771871336	5386317196	5035571349	4715000000	4420768000	4149686168	3899088759	3666735076	3450730410	3249462462	846968623	793069950	743596552	698013035	655871838	616796732	580469549	546619520	515014685	485454976	457766640	431797726	407414440	384498185	362943160	342654398
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6894134381	6415446775	6049763020	5718632235	5363051048	5048749418	4753481745	4504004496	4214176460	3831667819	1400011253	1345753755	1255893976	1184723936	1148482456	1077162085	1016837739	970123087	920215429	809142342	779158175	755752901	719125198	693066323	660901249	622938867