Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A2f	88029	72274	66671	67669	76713	72760	52353	54226	56758	48615	44860	37116	34984	37169	38391	37541	33058	30784	21396	12015	15109	17530	18077	17932	15749
NOx	1A3bii	106760	108556	104845	103179	102639	98677	96762	94769	93627	87783	83740	81336	76986	75099	73943	72088	70548	69648	66405	63436	62614	61440	60598	61331	62900
NMVOC	11C	91870	91510	91431	91422	91668	92538	91967	91607	91360	91554	91527	91642	91580	96305	91541	91636	91804	91568	91491	91401	91566	91558	91482	91344	91344
NMVOC	3B1a	34256	33456	33446	33506	33904	33581	34663	34239	33434	33904	32501	32020	31452	31259	31360	30807	30902	29952	29454	29414	30019	30351	29840	29707	31475
NMVOC	3B1b	50796	50178	50864	50376	50460	50486	52231	50455	50602	50194	49733	47532	46721	48593	49633	49685	49228	50492	48576	48338	49166	48393	48287	47653	47326
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	2719799	2658783	2582759	2468193	2386953	2207918	2137226	2036400	1883169	1705114	1567885	1484721	1400799	1289705	1211522	1137296	1091139	1053345	976541	887812	865490	845469	837195	822082	818680
SOx	1A2b	43713	51576	51221	60802	52315	54851	38676	43207	39589	33219	28766	34863	31684	30094	31038	31123	29402	26884	27328	24526	22841	22532	16713	3667	3580
NH3	11C	8130	8133	8135	8136	8139	8141	8143	8145	8147	8150	8153	8156	8160	8164	8205	8249	8292	8336	8395	8302	8491	8539	8635	8346	8471
NH3	3B1a	50481	49114	48349	48314	49251	48179	48902	48150	47088	47873	45829	45469	45170	44892	44462	43727	43588	41501	40746	40117	40721	40951	40613	40316	42749
CO	1A1a	112930	110898	108073	98337	107211	105659	104731	44911	60905	53940	66949	67339	65754	70384	71391	72802	79460	79974	79909	70351	71979	71645	85831	80507	66995

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	11C	5783	5903	6016	6851	6134	6169	6303	6329	6259	6199	6125	6132	6099	6105	6247
BC	5C1bv	10	1395	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A2b	595327	887976	849830	1052557	922258	987631	838594	788376	745556	492813	273649	478537	321763	564382	438875	143035	563949	265456	846026	2654536	279507	533459	103105	59133	60802
Pb	1A2f	4536316	3964120	3731522	3761055	4128970	4297221	4474292	4664582	4762229	4407015	3320264	2725593	7668798	6265535	8738763	3819451	1396001	2131181	2049858	966005	763129	2176024	3685820	2806549	2241458
Pb	1A3bi	1918291958	1718422513	1542494213	1367432784	1161339702	959010024	819266325	720655585	529595707	280629413	1533574	1358525	1309695	1302127	1316077	1380120	1377714	1027742	1007064	986427	959085	957534	963691	953246	966093
Pb	1A3bii	203927151	178778249	148835069	124913227	101631526	76984139	60792125	49914910	34974391	15709321	248466	239464	239518	246653	253953	262480	269559	269820	256413	253522	259468	261406	264744	268020	278836
Pb	2C5	6251746	5982405	6507198	6755918	6590374	6124526	6574020	5985216	6061239	5004350	5119894	8295340	9480555	6611985	3529969	1235462	1184973	1730082	1149143	1600285	1434549	1282734	1801785	1143585	1413175
Pb	2C7a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	13181698	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1115712	3212168	1462437	3027056	4549590	1108516	313630	67318	67318	67318	68755	62623
Pb	2I	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	2239726	1603104	1907104	2161490	2031490	1896104	1813104	2493104	2351028	1913262	2450655
Cd	1A1a	5278493	5038611	4964658	2591349	2524412	1752912	1383776	723465	761081	660835	457704	607164	571928	584567	718839	870370	873059	167654	109515	185854	107736	159906	155591	145786	179705
Cd	1A2b	42295	53942	52996	60316	57423	60453	43991	51373	47426	18577	19111	22230	28655	23433	18466	11649	31313	11280	20116	48844	182024	35418	16658	3918	3752
Cd	1A2gviii	626439	886652	890417	710491	612782	507320	460653	296194	277708	203539	192509	264171	187459	224658	240639	316564	222730	221608	166246	201421	278320	191135	175421	203529	220885
Cd	1A3di(i)	373846	355615	364968	376843	318004	386066	410140	499720	461983	293527	220858	198845	164875	204339	307644	373201	476428	592925	748743	694112	569198	657207	483729	417552	346374
Cd	2C1	1420324	1320954	1304073	1320579	1363046	1395049	1422261	1464048	1379439	1186220	1062317	972046	792413	909645	917218	936701	941042	949212	903113	661648	595841	1046745	650841	736667	986689
Cd	2C5	298709	282055	314505	329884	319648	290843	318636	144024	230147	174860	148638	76898	94370	66897	46944	13361	14183	41784	55268	14567	25535	38068	33216	14734	15609
Cd	2C6	2367981	2453526	2419116	2568730	2400719	2400730	1683705	2297705	979674	1252705	1051705	830705	978705	646
Cd	2C7a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	367762	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49360	19990	19909	20650	8570	5740	5530	2000	2000	2000	1500
Cd	2C7c	1247533	1076487	1162369	1123187	965457	813281	669019	531696	399016	263125	168370	163242	171012	156707	125438	130916	155850	86480	99995	59781	104464	86655	94981	94932	88925
Cd	5C1a	7461008	7386086	7083402	1263314	817949	414587	169595
Hg	1A1a	9453612	9365496	9091010	5106463	4860771	4453016	2803669	2556772	2278666	1630347	1680715	1764405	1537085	1918683	1772715	2330541	2246439	2219501	1802596	1272466	1464574	1269691	1784873	1567263	1327266
Hg	1A1b	21084	23003	23587	24405	25404	24215	24138	24680	23725	16244	15135	16104	16796	26052	36053	41401	30616	52242	52405	78611	321464	53597	35519	79184	22461
Hg	1A2b	114741	216069	204427	244668	213348	216840	206568	155727	143342	78998	179352	52749	275634	73600	64456	26812	36585	24785	310399	332839	34759	28430	27505	19949	20716
Hg	1A2c	530803	591657	568017	479043	473006	391197	411723	232703	133172	147972	82384	152828	164048	170500	162061	181615	180310	187279	186667	165077	165914	202259	155432	226537	181560
Hg	1A2f	188607	158922	148120	149456	167646	168024	173841	112217	484421	250109	253781	232761	257157	238006	248347	328127	235688	282828	271429	202648	270158	259292	264986	250988	216568
Hg	1A2gviii	804153	801791	1045755	571388	446330	384220	293053	323889	355410	365860	370147	304127	314944	343529	286029	319538	318445	223026	331912	395258	552833	495404	615529	802579	776698
Hg	2B10a	8024375	8827768	7373761	3234756	3541543	4159930	2346890	1094572	1215320	1453067	1395215	1442307	1244647	1229487	1180957	1141892	1321050	879550	950550	793550	810550	680655	373500	406500	364500
Hg	2C1	537232	501895	495864	498544	512648	526122	536067	551916	522441	531065	509968	432026	357193	551513	420632	480583	600253	666328	432887	455527	375230	757611	416955	682545	548873
Hg	2C5	8606	8126	9061	9504	9209	8380	9180	104053	30978	66718	35816	16344	11460	4720	30729	47194	22465	46584	53918	25191	145239	196010	88681	63200	56813
Hg	2C6	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000
Hg	2C7c	4796831	4139150	4469372	4318714	3712235	3127107	2572410	2044392	1534228	998378	654796	618851	583089	580835	459663	482064	406922	287994	299693	185173	227995	256605	237010	234281	221713
Hg	5A	617913	576055	533376	490333	447238	404016	400407	396846	393335	390122	386825	383661	380626	377667	374932	373069	370834	369005	367173	364864	362846	360901	358279	355484	353120
Hg	5C1a	6144359	6082659	5833390	725406	434819	257254	222356
Hg	5C1biii	330058	330058	311198	292337	152297	477649	180783	247998	168515	61897	92143	74139	104441	487563	41305	78487	49793	42392	32695	542918	126642	43405	23078	20194	11196
Hg	5C1bv	504998	535405	557137	605300	606719	646999	674663	702389	717849	756194	774714	787442	833165	873506	877753	916616	938231	979121	1029685	920985	846880	638737	593507	559377	552679

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A2f	8799	7234	6621	6707	7682	7634	7525	8606	4543	5351	4760	5019	2014	2234	24774	1823	1622	1069	1338	1428	2858	1032	709	1290	1353
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3752790449	3661623006	4107932991	4567886590	5060997147	5290982798	5293162457	5371208359	5675402073	91080826	76965041	67781778	63265471	58525738	71967049	68619314	64326435	55159790	51210195	33631009	32356464	23013176	22083939	18431635	21016749
PCB	2K	5669812246	5326614168	5009232000	4715000000	4420768000	4149686168	3899088759	3666735076	3450730410	3249462462	846968623	793069950	746192249	702927506	662850329	625605075	590892693	558460153	528091957	499603303	472834587	447646971	423918802	401542725	380423339
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6733104066	6306517299	5987286322	5691290050	5339172869	5036329213	4733708221	4486616747	4204614728	3837016830	1409269064	1352034421	1262511135	1228401914	1196311227	1130232746	1072326157	1028017547	979643671	873912756	842799603	822028880	786953828	762746724	732504453