Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A3biii	276649	275785	265681	268392	261806	256026	251537	248977	247045	243795	235234	230881	225943	222746	219142	212351	208190	207976	185942	152873	144347	127359
NOx	1A4bi	96228	103327	96803	97642	89577	81244	88264	77298	74754	70132	66305	63914	56430	52064	48620	45194	43729	41265	42174	39413	45244	34791
NMVOC	11C	91362	91212	91179	91176	91278	91640	91402	91252	91150	91230	91219	91267	91241	92460	91225	91265	91324	91270	91270	91270	91270	91270
NH3	4B13	19286	19192	19172	18750	18612	18468	18264	17950	18137	18410	18194	17754	17532	18165	17777	17819	20384	17302	18124	18042	18874	18855
CO	1A1a	112614	110560	107775	98132	106990	105518	104564	45449	60698	53745	66783	66880	65133	69948	71181	73149	79891	80403	85713	75071	76311	75983
CO	1A2fii	202965	192806	192595	195346	204447	207621	207668	207734	207795	207817	207781	207821	207820	205912	217131	217224	221275	229849	221252	190903	214592	215493
CO	2B5a	83969	82162	81512	83749	88490	90789	87875	554254	71337	66967	84159	84052	41935	40359	30759	25222	26248	29142	24141	13002	18868	19476

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	11C	5826	5954	6063	7074	6178	6220	6364	6383	6324	6274	6178	6191

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A2fi	20059753	19059891	19703784	18620535	18561644	19915906	19332947	19567607	18528336	17708203	16834915	16543128	19538451	17813258	22088245	15072231	10830235	11431541	10558872	13320069	11948970	10812437
Pb	1A3bi	1949013349	1745613462	1564331171	1384358248	1174920487	969204725	827192751	727284738	534290096	282974077	1521962	1341194	1284728	1273480	1285019	1333264	1330814	965037	947187	919012	877403	867607
Pb	1A3bii	177443502	155329697	129811662	110078239	89780339	68167476	53981356	44322541	30991969	13795529	214576	211293	212339	220554	229453	234931	242768	243269	237458	230104	231119	235038
Pb	2C5a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	12477588	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1184918	3342965	1540423	3143038	4941660	1268389	419865	156933	182141
Pb	2C5b	6251746	5982405	6507198	6755918	6590374	6124526	6574020	5985216	6061239	5004350	5119894	8295340	9480555	6611985	3529969	1264629	1284973	1830082	1249143	1582506	1534601	1473786
Cd	1A1a	4539765	4241444	4230425	2459403	2402966	1682763	1366786	721857	759097	659600	454681	601086	570916	582679	716680	867864	873485	169947	114411	186530	105289	156633
Cd	1A2fi	825397	1050374	1014582	838625	756280	646444	596237	443905	426266	265312	255499	318442	318320	284952	320259	413591	299403	302327	216509	252140	486436	252358
Cd	1A3di(i)	375948	357793	367175	378943	320007	387867	412291	501821	464438	295519	222850	201077	166671	206248	309581	375044	478881	594656	746308	691297	566692	654467
Cd	1A4ai	1063124	1119899	1071639	483546	461397	348829	273691	196231	147155	146212	81311	114268	60518	55230	40674	38149	38254	33470	51510	38918	37162	50689
Cd	2C1	1420620	1321202	1304335	1320852	1363316	1395329	1422536	1464316	1379688	1186216	1063752	973642	794689	910132	917449	937024	941290	949417	905548	663262	615382	1067342
Cd	2C5a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	916653	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49994	22580	22499	23240	11160	8830	8620	8620
Cd	2C5b	298709	282055	314505	329884	319648	290843	318636	144024	230147	174860	148638	76898	94370	66897	46944	13361	14183	41784	55268	14690	25637	38176
Cd	2C5d	2367981	2453526	2419116	2568730	2400719	2400730	1683705	2297705	979674	1252705	1051705	830705	978705	646
Cd	2C5e	1246972	1075975	1161880	1122702	964961	812771	668509	531175	398516	262625	167870	162742	170512	156207	124938	130416	155350	85980	100292	50113	93259	79588
Cd	6Cc	7461008	7386086	7083402	1270884	822304	416506	170341
Hg	1A1a	8845248	8709006	8486348	5030699	4796211	4409488	2781393	2544627	2264523	1626633	1674849	1751910	1529302	1908948	1758965	2323867	2247395	2228972	1804306	1294665	1474717	1281568
Hg	1A1b	21148	23065	23649	24472	25486	24315	24236	24835	23889	16358	15308	16147	16840	16501	19806	20726	15865	28147	52397	78610	319792	49298
Hg	1A2fi	1457867	1355049	1459760	925292	834189	764299	662486	588053	1003989	758125	888052	666151	853937	658035	614637	558163	575735	531737	913150	999281	654790	650826
Hg	1A4ai	1254674	1257220	1110058	518842	409191	294135	295721	321176	201116	195803	143685	145410	86599	77428	73280	91824	79639	74273	74919	97410	82363	81151
Hg	2B5a	8024333	8827725	7373717	3234710	3541496	4159880	2346840	1094522	1215270	1453017	1394847	1442197	1244147	1228987	1180457	1141000	1321050	879550	950550	793550	810550	677500
Hg	2C1	558356	522004	515257	518321	533348	547102	558134	574335	543969	551301	528528	448538	372734	570217	438801	498874	620267	686381	450464	468853	387394	769122
Hg	2C5b	8606	8126	9061	9504	9209	8380	9180	104053	30978	66718	35816	16344	11460	4720	30729	47194	30338	58994	70790	32682	188562	207883
Hg	2C5d	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000
Hg	2C5e	4797639	4139888	4470077	4319413	3712950	3127843	2573145	2045144	1535205	998378	654796	618851	583089	580835	459663	482064	406422	280569	286028	148421	185333	233700
Hg	6Ca	330058	330058	311198	292337	152297	437798	169131	237485	168515	61897	92143	74139	106752	491895	43169	96040	63610	57222	56565	613727	313508	59011
Hg	6Cc	6144359	6082659	5833390	729753	437134	258444	223334
Hg	6Cd	506474	537634	560081	609116	611107	652229	680646	709125	725213	762815	780421	792231	837237	876804	880285	918515	939473	979744	1029685	920012	847757	639198

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	7A	64950	58769	58319	55239	54341	62960	57671	52611	49320	54156	49368	52218	53615	58742	48387	46287	47232	45150	40604	40604	40604	40604
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3156208938	3050198432	3360641152	3674523467	3947156802	4119730749	4162490102	4168978582	4424876369	90919228	76822204	67608301	63084510	61185217	72844095	68328874	64051194	58242618	50867090	31505654	32413811	24074357