Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671	99515	95778	96847	98524	103510	100456	105342	113277	108053	108261
NMVOC	1B2av	119243	104575	93204	84409	74912	66857	64781	63405	58683	52728	44953	38301	31403	28316	26385	24771	23119	20948	19270	17469	15513	14778	13417	12300	11684	11247	10552	11228	11188	11323	8331
NMVOC	3De	146968	138520	140261	143073	153607	156751	131504	144792	138176	151507	144677	137391	137493	171433	142303	149677	157772	132179	127051	139496	135254	143812	137596	139556	142389	146134	145986	151337	160118	153690	153683
NMVOC	6B	1093102	1079892	1078555	1057718	1129208	1145142	1031480	1162698	1073206	1189258	1123333	1098862	1065073	1416034	1120774	1214129	1327998	1057128	1058972	1193302	1100265	1188410	1142496	1156924	1172611	1253401	1207826	1266996	1381486	1312163	1314275
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2893127	2925480	2844715	2723666	2577143	2496241	2428487	2312242	2255973	2165237	2060648	1967125	1839020	1787105	1670863	1189557	1486156	1357586	1281186	1208409	1218987	1148868	1099766	1092428	1074259	1047371	1024432	1012283	989839	973351	550002
SOx	1A1c	29238	28928	26199	23964	21315	20953	20992	17464	15641	13082	9139	9215	6921	5757	3755	3490	3316	3281	3523	2911	1156	2322	1957	1511	3601	2793	2043	1748	4296	3619	2204
SOx	2C3	4157	3649	5327	5436	4899	4679	5031	5355	6146	6197	6838	6734	12106	5438	6043	6314	5777	5539	4650	3751	3268	3442	3481	3507	4697	5565	5427	5591	4737	5058	5154
NH3	3Da3	97565	96751	96568	96137	96478	97266	97689	97025	96598	96912	100172	100927	98103	95183	93493	92550	92683	93322	93065	92681	92117	88892	88068	88732	89709	90267	90017	88933	87138	85504	83856

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A2b	61017589	56456742	54549903	52127569	51588141	51418483	52276766	49691534	51896295	46514028	47635736	39270151	39126907	1350634	1323707	1484144	1380458	1721174	1092355	893299	868129	770373	1009902	675297	742505	439122	523573	383956	300686	327569	312276
Pb	1A3ai(ii)	2921311	3132974	3208402	2826186	2976249	2738227	2495350	2612513	2585425	2984818	3150357	2921877	2847289	2497667	2459303	2766888	2777089	2782555	2600802	3669708	3057354	5749420	4705683	4388449	2367418	2442586	1831815	1412413	1302436	1026399	1259362
Pb	1A3bi	3361273944	2182901643	1507513272	1322257976	1168498787	1027303807	868311816	747846340	655508524	465271591	6496430	16055	15710	15004	14416	13739	13094	12696	12055	11725	11232	10830	10314	10077	10268	10303	10694	10775	10970	11492	9698
Pb	1A3bii	449154397	284287765	175248406	138619116	122029793	95606707	80474294	69290236	60070009	41493495	520865	2289	2253	2180	2143	2108	2193	2231	2079	2145	2165	2188	2216	2226	2109	2239	2031	2201	2118	2137	1724
Pb	2G	1896449	1896180	1895740	1895170	1894573	1893967	1956943	2094303	2463826	5032576	3816739	2509094	5182479	6195131	8911427	7853571	4749762	4574345	3306511	3739548	3273113	2732807	3292889	3383482	2855647	2582352	2497737	3001469	3428289	3268901	2074641
Pb	5C1a	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83118	89484	57235	32529	33200	30115	21307	18426	14299	11266	7120	5239	4796	3660
Pb	5C1biv	1501680	1497325	1492983	1488653	1484556	1480251	1542530	1604809	1667088	1729367	1791646	1676470	1536288	1505040	1473792	1551094	1628396	1705698	1782999	1898792	2659746	2480616	2725250	1991164	2250277	2645713	1982214	2917835	1291350	2743509	2756692
Cd	1A1a	4052990	4385603	4646801	4542347	4272362	3790145	3604022	2545371	2117240	1888573	1919344	1704324	1459956	1219296	991956	909982	501411	585353	419115	348010	335939	201323	221541	194913	174813	161203	163611	181321	155479	210198	192312
Cd	1A2a	1362019	1536602	1461505	1363389	1508766	1462166	1378644	1515488	1564633	1529591	1536539	1374079	1495449	1484532	1203814	1030830	769157	763930	1029687	508910	660094	648175	522108	611187	773793	638532	773083	761530	497304	503892	504895
Cd	1A2b	2549018	2487190	2474322	2337786	2263895	1967857	1984575	1945674	1893063	1557391	1445146	1358661	1318853	343725	329028	263915	167932	170336	166569	199417	192355	191637	183603	166260	184516	182456	168866	181020	166554	208581	231618
Cd	1A2f	1712720	1664510	1594412	1469587	1455134	1422753	1349853	1302083	1264955	1194955	1135922	1057732	1050806	1086485	1200916	1272154	1073262	847717	756688	411944	271115	330119	236885	264358	225123	230918	226563	281121	246865	231947	238951
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	458310	302643	305214	156834	151666	127283	168340	241227	242075	118201	502934	76484	53405	54732	103679
Cd	5C1biv	108121	107807	107495	107183	106888	106578	111062	112016	112695	113101	113232	102265	90334	85185	80174	80967	81420	85285	89150	94940	132987	124031	136263	99558	112514	132286	99111	145892	64568	137175	137835
Hg	1A1a	7945469	8560729	9002785	8670183	8036553	6996922	6564854	4218240	3378984	2838402	2731396	2320950	2114052	1951173	1722922	2029828	1468822	885574	896514	823630	862181	1045530	833820	881583	710614	630103	514142	573447	694058	514498	405698
Hg	1A2a	512597	569881	486177	439999	456701	365434	353362	392967	389946	387934	494319	324536	341845	367251	352240	377865	408548	396154	337866	190186	403272	387577	208004	271542	230490	238759	218209	271299	292358	262636	279542
Hg	1A2b	2123540	2238004	2302577	2143281	2137202	2304975	2382429	2263611	2276559	2226638	2262787	2223694	2255357	115107	120564	74165	123255	131686	144245	97428	79455	89322	75327	54702	69522	61400	91066	84327	85341	102114	89564
Hg	1A2f	3295126	3420745	2941269	2622899	2514775	2330492	2098762	1881231	1696394	1472637	1267770	1051817	849001	775840	989405	854852	723784	749895	687691	714737	524638	732867	721949	464233	557087	447212	413499	415662	397767	608871	417176
Hg	2B10a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	712900	1001706	813120	748690	471156	443018	376770	445640	387783	454230	648380	356260	317520	99320	49280	35631	57463
Hg	2C1	302290	289849	281027	266471	303543	314567	313301	357775	354297	332417	352419	332599	312198	298670	299112	274121	454580	226144	262059	209586	352324	234262	288369	290320	560327	296010	207892	142466	145701	174954	105960
Hg	2D3a	809300	809300	809300	626000	626000	626000	626000	630000	607986	610986	602371	616971	607173	544113	585000	589967	514333	449500	389600	464200	379600	367200	336200	357800	401200	508200	553200	448600	264630	170640	110130
Hg	5C1bii	974363	1007591	1073485	1057544	1208689	1175419	1146830	962694	924641	861843	800152	726010	671490	542334	453313	336810	848290	109100	149630	130859	296635	141689	159239	158672	145996	170129	43577	51848	45343	56915	30345
Hg	5C1biii	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305	7458	1810	1467	3114	2255	1050	3672	3922	2821	1342
Hg	5C1biv	100112	99822	99532	99244	98970	98683	102835	104313	105582	106644	107499	97794	87056	82777	78602	80140	81420	85285	89150	94940	132987	124031	136263	99558	112514	132286	99111	145892	64568	137175	137835

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
HCB	1A2b	1125842601	1145996655	1172033084	555628989	2624162	2859086	2734693	2620463	2085646	72700	2234	2005	1664	1	0	0	77	71	130	76	16	17	15	14	13	13	14	13	14	15	14
HCB	2C1	408759	393241	376565	356508	358428	346402	327906	356664	361828	373749	382660	341469	377894	365996	387616	370470	374252	358081	327508	235833	300527	293046	285216	305841	324619	299566	287793	321847	317948	303902	236185
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1197375057	1218817423	1245490381	628514596	73762638	71244290	71961343	63612297	57288012	49666623	45104756	35619824	27542122	21996935	16846880	12394437	7186655	7225255	18827436	19267367	20908991	20238733	20247735	21000733	23042841	25391330	25977649	28229712	23132792	22989933	22073475
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1197375057	1218817423	1245490381	628514596	73762638	71244290	71961343	63612297	57288012	49666623	45104756	35619824	27542122	21996935	16846880	12394437	7186655	7225255	18827436	19267367	20908991	20238733	20247735	21000733	23042841	25391330	25977649	28229712	23132792	22989933	22073475
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1197375057	1218817423	1245490381	628514596	73762638	71244290	71961343	63612297	57288012	49666623	45104756	35619824	27542122	21996935	16846880	12394437	7186655	7225255	18827436	19267367	20908991	20238733	20247735	21000733	23042841	25391330	25977649	28229712	23132792	22989933	22073475
PCB	1A1a	27427820	27941880	28640802	23145330	19493736	20031758	21750863	17054419	23489889	18670642	18411039	14277723	15486554	16555013	16169303	17191975	14222226	14238923	13418841	12850770	12038726	8471011	11328964	12600524	6162801	6224996	5581635	7059108	4714983	2332826	2004681
PCB	1A4ai	3163566	3175445	2602693	2334877	2099360	2126863	2239008	2058465	2247018	2228204	1993287	2039081	1753839	1781951	1763991	1733517	1543515	1492000	1745879	1610536	1381806	1082913	1235981	1406843	1223335	1274032	1239752	1266816	1205196	1185677	1135415
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	177736401	174654108	163647135	175837258	141933704	152352095	147384463	127770941	125666429	112235317	97603051	89466187	66788913	66448608	67871114	68273345	63690295	59807552	58891835	52470007	54399466	46009990	49988329	50227213	41840564	41185922	40617141	41667864	37970033	33854804	30063768
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	177736401	174654108	163647135	175837258	141933704	152352095	147384463	127770941	125666429	112235317	97603051	89466187	66788913	66448608	67871114	68273345	63690295	59807552	58891835	52470007	54399466	46009990	49988329	50227213	41840564	41185922	40617141	41667864	37970033	33854804	30063768
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	177736401	174654108	163647135	175837258	141933704	152352095	147384463	127770941	125666429	112235317	97603051	89466187	66788913	66448608	67871114	68273345	63690295	59807552	58891835	52470007	54399466	46009990	49988329	50227213	41840564	41185922	40617141	41667864	37970033	33854804	30063768