Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3bii	119608	124975	126459	127442	128776	124077	121930	121366	120600	118668	117674	118964	117742	115947	111667	110143	107541	104056	97975	96814	98168	95982	85486	89052	93561	98248	102997	105909	106035	107976
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671	99515	95778	96847	98524	103510	100456	105342	113277	108053
NMVOC	3De	146968	138520	140261	143073	153607	156751	131504	144792	138176	151507	144677	137391	137493	171433	142303	149677	157772	132179	127051	139496	135254	143812	137596	139556	142389	146134	145986	151337	160118	153690
NMVOC	6B	1093102	1079892	1078555	1057718	1129208	1145142	1031480	1162698	1073206	1189258	1123333	1098862	1065073	1416034	1120774	1214129	1327998	1057128	1058972	1193302	1100265	1188410	1142496	1156924	1172611	1253401	1207826	1266996	1381486	1312163
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2884808	2909160	2842487	2710557	2553673	2477587	2416848	2299602	2236185	2146836	2044347	1949172	1821231	1773865	1661062	1188863	1479267	1352477	1272732	1197981	1205871	1128782	1075932	1066996	1050323	1023427	1001342	1003266	978777	955666
SOx	1A2a	73278	118414	70513	45081	60594	62699	58756	49032	45699	44867	43950	38154	24205	26033	23861	27344	25216	30888	27732	16198	26658	22452	26197	19473	17088	19416	18802	22508	22435	14086
SOx	1A2b	41761	41763	37961	23261	11134	13746	13758	14624	13424	12522	10825	9710	10580	4472	4035	2798	3397	2585	1632	1599	1153	1170	1233	1213	763	859	1753	514	303	235
SOx	1A2c	60258	74821	60104	60441	61064	56766	61018	50138	48443	50315	41529	45120	39933	37428	34505	34216	36598	33432	28202	33599	27748	22137	21027	21155	20451	17935	16870	12994	8476	8665
SOx	1A2e	46052	63733	49679	53285	46507	45497	42897	40861	36741	30292	17008	16017	14869	9045	11318	14762	14457	10137	7136	7636	6502	6946	7640	7618	7302	7099	5935	5630	4573	4165
SOx	2C3	4157	3649	5327	5436	4899	4679	5031	5355	6146	6197	6838	6734	12106	5438	6043	6314	5777	5539	4650	3751	3268	3442	3481	3507	4697	5565	5427	5591	4737	5058
NH3	3Da3	97519	96704	96520	96088	96429	97217	97639	96972	96542	96855	100115	100868	98043	95121	93432	92487	92619	93249	92989	92605	92037	89918	89042	89621	90468	91019	90844	89317	87424	86160

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2b	60995329	56409197	54491796	52113117	51566876	51399827	52250577	49673818	51895792	46487590	47614715	39246557	39112262	1334744	1320886	1480168	1355618	1696316	1062514	865884	841169	743512	982624	653120	723193	415139	484444	336982	279523	303051
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	20078227	20023388	19884564	17987363	18008042	16552770	15295803	15754515	15128066	16108526	16376571	15241037	14697345	13348424	13040442	13702187	13466535	13285369	12627729	15562370	13327631	15709834	14336024	13628582	11963733	11576059	10952796	10512454	10641318	10262025
Pb	1A3bi	3559691688	2287213793	1599158720	1384921400	1205602168	1064704009	911610468	787625629	682264283	484348373	6699151	16325	15837	15183	14546	13783	13089	12659	12018	11696	11389	10866	10637	10383	10529	10625	10839	11106	11201	11557
Pb	1A3bii	272684305	171279486	105968670	82043792	73642923	56604372	49108557	43455180	37741986	26338197	361636	1966	1994	2013	2027	2054	2159	2229	2107	2206	2262	2257	2051	2053	1971	1995	1953	2005	2033	2114
Pb	2G	1896420	1896140	1895729	1895150	1894541	1893947	1956947	2094309	2463818	5032559	3816717	2509072	5182445	6195118	8911411	7853552	7296415	6458290	4621183	3739523	3551179	2757360	3315281	3479858	2855615	2582281	2482053	3001350	3474501	3286108
Pb	5C1a	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83118	89484	57235	32529	33200	30115	21307	18426	14299	11266	7120	5239	2770
Pb	5C1biv	1501680	1497325	1492983	1488653	1484556	1480251	1542530	1604809	1667088	1729367	1791646	1676470	1536288	1505040	1473792	1551094	1628396	1705698	1782999	1898792	2659746	2480616	2725250	1991164	2250277	2645713	1982214	2917835	2957608	2961191
Cd	1A1a	4052990	4385603	4646801	4542347	4272362	3790145	3604022	2545371	2117240	1888573	1919344	1704324	1459956	1219296	991956	909982	501411	585353	419115	348010	335939	200777	219959	193765	174289	160591	160422	177355	152401	211265
Cd	1A2a	1366620	1552180	1468511	1365389	1514926	1469832	1385452	1521475	1570026	1534701	1539972	1377509	1496229	1485032	1204368	1032348	770436	764803	1029560	508790	660341	648553	524628	611748	773604	638539	773178	761909	497478	503982
Cd	1A2b	2546756	2483220	2468257	2335833	2261022	1965460	1981071	1943280	1892995	1553828	1442305	1355472	1316873	341577	328646	263377	164575	166976	162536	195712	188711	188005	179915	163263	181905	179214	163577	174670	163693	205298
Cd	1A2f	1710300	1659106	1586026	1468071	1442035	1415311	1341257	1301228	1264134	1185269	1135330	1047725	1050807	1086485	1200914	1271687	1072717	847452	754732	401738	264946	330695	237414	263151	219338	227008	222159	277474	244319	231682
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	458310	302643	305214	156834	151666	127283	168340	241227	242075	118201	502934	76484	53405	55041
Hg	1A1a	7945469	8560729	9002785	8670183	8036553	6996922	6564854	4218240	3378984	2838402	2731396	2320950	2114052	1951173	1722922	2029828	1468822	885574	896514	823630	862181	1004798	715378	795604	671432	584305	464278	501901	662248	497022
Hg	1A2a	923712	1729466	1011714	585248	918725	940466	864096	766947	730125	702157	689540	541613	345755	376808	364882	424159	452864	474451	361737	204216	427391	436883	355089	324702	237579	264742	249668	326261	310868	260874
Hg	1A2b	2079822	2099623	2196733	2140157	2132604	2294466	2374933	2259781	2276450	2220394	2258242	2218591	2252189	111670	119954	73306	117884	126310	137792	91499	73624	83512	69427	49907	65349	56214	82607	74172	80768	97249
Hg	1A2e	257271	278393	261684	250555	246138	255478	241365	242919	236176	230229	194082	196211	214726	191285	220174	244988	233265	215404	171800	172685	156147	155428	157221	163514	168172	142753	147742	147455	126921	118385
Hg	1A2f	3153641	2979477	2762086	2542263	2371399	2197981	1994013	1817102	1634837	1418402	1223366	1001276	849001	775840	989244	846804	710272	730699	669657	689899	502224	711166	677596	461329	547081	440051	405818	413134	395577	610686
Hg	2B10a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	712900	1001706	813120	748690	471156	443018	376770	445640	387783	454230	648380	356260	317520	99320	49280	35631
Hg	2C1	302290	289849	281027	266471	303543	314567	313301	357775	354297	332417	352419	332599	312198	298670	299112	274121	454580	226144	262059	209586	352324	234262	288369	290320	560327	296010	207892	142466	145701	176355
Hg	2D3a	809300	809300	809300	626000	626000	626000	626000	630000	607986	610986	602371	616971	607173	544113	585000	589967	514333	449500	389600	464200	379600	367200	336200	357800	401200	508200	553200	448600	278500	203300
Hg	5C1bii	974363	1007591	1073485	1057544	1208689	1175419	1146830	962694	924641	861843	800152	726010	671490	542334	453313	336810	848290	109100	149630	130859	296635	141689	159239	158672	145996	170129	44612	62349	54835	55618
Hg	5C1biii	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305	7458	1810	1467	3114	2255	1050	3672	3922	2821

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
HCB	1A2b	1125840383	1145989383	1172027728	555628989	2624162	2858723	2734590	2620463	2085646	72670	2234	2005	1664	1	0	0	77	71	130	76	16	17	15	14	13	13	14	13	14	15
HCB	2C1	408759	393241	376565	356508	358428	346402	327906	356664	361828	373749	382660	341469	377894	365996	387616	370470	374252	358081	327508	235833	300527	293046	285216	305841	324619	299566	287793	321847	317948	303902
HCB	2C2	1192988	1192988	1192988	1192988	1192988	1197881	1202774	1207667	1212560	1217453	1251759	1211213	1233986	1233879	1214904	1405212	1576183	1470305	1574360	1143926	1552107	1781817	1568157	1578688	1650584	1544827	1876765	1893869	1854509	1433828
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1197374989	1218817356	1245490317	628514532	73762563	71244222	71961283	63612245	57287924	49666530	45104680	35619737	27542031	21996850	16846792	12394371	7186575	7225175	18827359	19267251	20908888	20262016	20272487	21031394	23075811	25424316	25972227	28237517	28942284	29794301
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1197374989	1218817356	1245490317	628514532	73762563	71244222	71961283	63612245	57287924	49666530	45104680	35619737	27542031	21996850	16846792	12394371	7186575	7225175	18827359	19267251	20908888	20262016	20272487	21031394	23075811	25424316	25972227	28237517	28942284	29794301
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1197374989	1218817356	1245490317	628514532	73762563	71244222	71961283	63612245	57287924	49666530	45104680	35619737	27542031	21996850	16846792	12394371	7186575	7225175	18827359	19267251	20908888	20262016	20272487	21031394	23075811	25424316	25972227	28237517	28942284	29794301
PCB	1A4ai	3158150	3163338	2581329	2310939	2074491	2102360	2212325	2033120	2227412	2211999	1979823	2018672	1734154	1818458	1745129	1715173	1526474	1479858	1735122	1595224	1365158	1087291	1220201	1372759	1248997	1282447	1224664	1263463	1212815	1184476
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	177602927	174543190	163506785	175716541	141853089	152265069	147434465	127970594	125913236	112147399	97696787	89508667	67238891	66948530	68599782	68949397	64224616	60076049	59072431	52638331	54388191	46170426	50180009	50385991	41950705	41269151	40569865	41711799	37912213	33416652
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	177602927	174543190	163506785	175716541	141853089	152265069	147434465	127970594	125913236	112147399	97696787	89508667	67238891	66948530	68599782	68949397	64224616	60076049	59072431	52638331	54388191	46170426	50180009	50385991	41950705	41269151	40569865	41711799	37912213	33416652
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	177602927	174543190	163506785	175716541	141853089	152265069	147434465	127970594	125913236	112147399	97696787	89508667	67238891	66948530	68599782	68949397	64224616	60076049	59072431	52638331	54388191	46170426	50180009	50385991	41950705	41269151	40569865	41711799	37912213	33416652