Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671	99515	95778	96847	98524	103510	100456	105342	105342
NMVOC	2D3a	144555	146932	149289	143780	147566	145085	148331	149737	154281	145549	140687	134041	138215	138214	131651	128881	131791	136732	140381	133618	149558	129455	118876	115090	134283	118044	121901	127511	127659
NMVOC	6B	1447957	1423519	1421510	1402882	1486818	1507459	1368303	1511568	1415179	1543188	1475799	1443498	1406198	1785935	1458207	1558845	1680206	1386290	1386219	1529998	1432465	1528342	1474318	1490556	1512174	1597541	1548953	1610162	1607754
SOx	1A2b	44253	45424	37983	23277	11176	13746	13739	14562	13277	12507	10789	9694	10410	4025	3363	2356	2937	2101	1542	1501	1130	1147	1157	1178	760	856	1748	485	470
SOx	2C3	4157	3649	5327	5436	4899	4679	5031	5355	6146	6197	6838	6734	12106	5438	6043	6314	5777	5539	4650	3751	3268	3442	3481	3507	4697	5565	5427	5591	4737
NH3	3Da3	54359	53596	53184	52872	53054	53346	53434	53049	52812	52915	54522	54784	53533	52023	51143	50654	50455	50628	50463	50099	49886	48938	48417	48628	49070	49205	48960	48460	47388
CO	1A4bii	103278	103278	103278	103278	103278	103278	103278	103278	103278	103278	103220	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289	103289

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2b	61005483	56423974	54491795	52113076	51567008	51399784	52250335	49673133	51894308	46487436	47614380	39246474	39110544	1330347	1314309	1475048	1349738	1688727	1061620	864896	840930	743274	981866	652772	723164	415107	484408	332497	292384
Pb	1A3aii(i)	9089547	9089547	9028132	8168309	8188781	7533679	6960464	7144712	6878576	7328959	7451791	6939992	6694329	6080170	5936867	6243946	6141586	6059698	5711675	7042352	6018754	7062824	6407721	6080170	5199876	5179404	4872325	4688077	4749493
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	16159195	16159195	16050012	14521439	14557834	13393207	12374159	12701710	12228580	13029261	13247629	12337764	11901029	10809191	10554429	11100348	10918375	10772797	10154089	12519737	10700008	12556132	11391505	10809191	9244224	9207830	8661911	8334360	8443544
Pb	1A3bi	3363365289	2163734294	1520125599	1320974958	1151917203	1020882408	874670932	755978298	654844369	465449275	6438013	15856	15393	14768	14149	13425	12767	12380	11749	11410	11120	10621	10211	9965	10096	10265	10459	10754	10910
Pb	1A3bii	460611095	289056261	180952990	141454868	123696684	97510151	83444545	72315746	62008200	42891113	585305	2581	2574	2558	2544	2519	2580	2598	2439	2531	2579	2558	2531	2522	2481	2504	2476	2519	2489
Pb	5C1a	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83090	89421	57211	32529	33200	30115	21312	18434	15702	12409	7092	4381
Cd	1A1a	4052990	4385603	4646801	4542347	4272362	3790145	3604022	2545371	2117247	1888573	1919327	1704322	1459956	1219296	991956	909982	501411	585527	419338	348096	335939	200777	219959	193782	174323	161908	161347	178597	153682
Cd	1A2a	1362852	1543327	1466222	1363696	1510634	1467043	1383760	1519570	1568092	1531350	1537382	1374619	1496008	1484364	1203853	1031967	770158	763550	1027450	508203	659168	647343	523341	611222	773491	638071	771718	761304	493705
Cd	1A2b	2547337	2484037	2468257	2335827	2261029	1965455	1981038	1943187	1892794	1553808	1442261	1355464	1316645	340986	327760	262687	163782	165953	162418	195583	188683	187979	179819	163220	183550	180285	164378	174750	167201
Cd	1A2f	1710901	1658710	1586910	1468230	1442431	1415676	1342271	1301954	1263802	1185457	1135717	1048241	1050775	1086461	1200881	1270305	1070495	848119	755470	401732	265305	329548	236099	262075	219006	226354	222307	277180	244181
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	458310	302643	305214	156834	151666	127283	168340	241227	242075	118201	502934	76484	53405
Hg	1A1a	7945469	8560729	9002785	8670183	8036553	6996922	6564880	4218240	3379523	2838402	2730121	2320818	2114052	1951173	1722922	2029828	1468822	885773	896975	823834	862181	1004798	715378	795675	671566	589664	468796	505936	669527
Hg	1A2a	640667	1076817	840036	445180	596898	731923	733643	624675	596423	452985	495597	321623	335120	330876	331463	330604	397262	385689	206013	163421	340183	374404	287264	304640	233468	234723	140184	280928	363116
Hg	1A2b	2123285	2164367	2196733	2140148	2133188	2294456	2374880	2259632	2276129	2220360	2258171	2218577	2251823	110726	118535	72201	116615	124672	137603	91292	73579	83468	69271	49836	65346	56213	82602	74173	100490
Hg	1A2f	3200119	3020320	2830317	2564265	2403303	2232790	2037833	1855397	1671914	1454365	1253555	1041293	848847	775716	989085	844579	766227	781082	725481	689835	529496	710394	674391	460581	546744	439588	405749	417228	402506
Hg	1A4bi	689480	1113155	590496	539537	592408	636649	570850	487866	474436	462568	389274	408706	304173	275598	260219	265860	227628	265319	230014	194436	230120	270677	222399	214175	154540	173619	179667	178220	132174
Hg	2B10a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	712900	1001706	813120	748690	471156	443018	376770	445640	387783	454230	648380	356260	317520	99320	49280
Hg	2C1	302290	289849	281027	266471	303543	314567	313301	357775	354297	332417	352419	332599	312198	298670	299112	274121	454580	226144	262059	209586	352324	234262	288369	290320	560327	296010	207892	142466	145701
Hg	2D3a	809300	809300	809300	626000	626000	626000	626000	630000	607986	610986	602371	616971	607173	544113	585000	589967	514333	449500	389600	464200	379600	367200	336200	357800	401200	508200	553200	448600	278500
Hg	5C1bii	974363	1007591	1073485	1057544	1208689	1175419	1146830	962694	924641	861843	800152	726010	671490	542334	453313	336810	848290	109100	149630	130859	296635	141689	159239	158672	145996	170129	44612	62349	55985
Hg	5C1biii	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305	7458	1810	1467	3114	2255	1050	3672	3922

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
HCB	1A2b	1125840746	1145990172	1172025452	555626720	2622324	2856616	2732313	2618373	2083439	70466
HCB	2C1	408759	393241	376565	356508	358428	346402	327906	356664	361828	373749	382660	341469	377894	365996	387616	370470	374252	358081	327508	235833	300527	293046	285216	305841	324619	299566	287793	321847	317948
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1196185306	1217632369	1244303770	627321638	72574208	70056481	70769481	62412315	56085485	48453116	43857383	34413790	26310934	20765456	15633430	10990324	5619461	5767923	16068105	18549458	20603105	17577152	18057651	19461479	21071598	24044990	25701441	23885472	23888095
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1196185306	1217632369	1244303770	627321638	72574208	70056481	70769481	62412315	56085485	48453116	43857383	34413790	26310934	20765456	15633430	10990324	5619461	5767923	16068105	18549458	20603105	17577152	18057651	19461479	21071598	24044990	25701441	23885472	23888095
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1196185306	1217632369	1244303770	627321638	72574208	70056481	70769481	62412315	56085485	48453116	43857383	34413790	26310934	20765456	15633430	10990324	5619461	5767923	16068105	18549458	20603105	17577152	18057651	19461479	21071598	24044990	25701441	23885472	23888095
PCB	1A2a	5820937	7671869	6396566	4571068	5325568	5872985	5700173	5489199	5384609	4656915	4809753	3725277	4004057	3914927	3931556	3924297	3995363	4194319	3568783	2379298	3315110	3038458	3334986	3046235	3075078	3070884	2662753	3360237	3548437
PCB	1A2f	3591539	3699126	3509139	2838313	3048436	2944560	3009902	2859663	2903745	2753955	2670158	2831467	2342115	2312081	2398147	2828281	3590328	3577507	3614994	2517375	2795830	2422903	2276835	2277346	2257533	2127372	2095325	1918164	1999130
PCB	1A4ai	2939352	3363691	2571253	2222675	1945213	2069573	2236403	2090262	2594229	2591668	2290602	2164442	1883881	2101624	2256694	2258629	2005411	2087657	1914153	2318329	2096865	2116086	2091562	2421417	2048111	2132182	1890470	1968382	1714426
PCB	1A4bi	15495017	19478331	16548650	15788524	14471376	14721269	15361774	13638195	13726395	13114018	12122607	12927447	11599908	12091878	11992723	11867745	10913838	10452148	11277786	10869677	12039770	10176305	11356073	12008394	9673971	10237161	10816502	10485126	9889657