Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671	99515	95778	96847	98524	103510	100456	105342
NMVOC	2D3a	144555	146932	149289	143780	147566	145085	148331	149737	154281	145549	140687	134041	138215	138214	131651	128881	131791	136732	140381	133618	149558	129455	118876	115089	134283	117966	122038	122455
NMVOC	6B	1447957	1423519	1421510	1402882	1486818	1507459	1368303	1511568	1415177	1543183	1475791	1443487	1406185	1785919	1458185	1558817	1680176	1386258	1386192	1529977	1432448	1528273	1474422	1490830	1512632	1598193	1549790	1610857
SOx	1A1a	327254	331992	327311	225037	207216	216950	221073	174522	220281	160357	143784	109228	106304	124745	109671	120451	98668	97360	80340	74117	65833	39619	60377	54402	24231	18585	7843	9054
SOx	1A2b	44059	47278	43327	23403	11230	13657	13484	14213	13238	12635	11143	10103	10223	4034	3087	2415	2959	2109	1551	1515	1147	1732	1326	192	480	243	1345	631
SOx	2C3	4157	3649	5327	5436	4899	4679	5031	5355	6146	6197	6838	6734	12106	5438	6043	6314	5777	5539	4650	3751	3268	3442	3481	3507	4697	5565	5427	5591
NH3	3Da2a	119207	118091	117334	117558	118199	118836	119200	118758	119192	118574	120563	119392	118786	116893	114960	113471	112512	114285	120371	117859	117753	118736	116887	117001	119151	118403	116927	116547
NH3	3Da3	54359	53596	53184	52872	53054	53346	53434	53049	52812	52915	54522	54784	53533	52023	51143	50654	50455	50628	50463	50100	49886	48827	48310	48531	48976	49114	48963	48430
CO	1A4bii	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103219	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2b	61005248	56432144	54514386	52113452	51567215	51398459	52247531	49669416	51893779	46488597	47617878	39250447	39108719	1330469	1311613	1475650	1350048	1688800	1061759	865072	841227	749051	983551	643063	720422	409955	480431	333947
Pb	1A3bi	3366718585	2158710642	1518314714	1321751410	1153369695	1019253280	874191938	755734742	656364530	464746210	6438670	15841	15384	14769	14181	13394	12730	12357	11734	11420	11098	10611	10238	9987	10118	10262	10451	10756
Pb	1A3bii	457243702	294129794	182740436	140644066	122273426	99107958	83931746	72576576	60478882	43579739	584820	2595	2583	2554	2513	2549	2617	2621	2452	2521	2601	2569	2501	2497	2456	2502	2480	2513
Pb	5C1a	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83090	89421	57211	32529	33200	30115	21312	18434	15702	12409	7092
Cd	1A1a	4053305	4385906	4647099	4542850	4272704	3790431	3604201	2545706	2117138	1888564	1918941	1703614	1460028	1219336	991887	909899	501352	585411	419234	347984	335794	200661	219772	195121	175682	163261	162528	179879
Cd	1A2a	1361653	1536945	1462657	1363669	1509576	1465718	1382108	1518830	1568176	1531875	1537102	1375950	1497565	1484583	1203821	1031554	770901	764553	1029569	508891	659447	648000	523057	611791	775886	639577	772602	870323
Cd	1A2b	2547449	2484627	2469631	2335876	2261064	1965272	1980655	1942681	1892718	1553959	1442730	1355995	1316392	340995	327389	262762	163818	165957	162430	195602	188718	188754	180041	161902	183174	179584	163835	174942
Cd	1A2f	1710463	1661837	1588277	1469113	1442929	1416021	1342457	1301909	1263688	1185242	1135869	1047823	1050774	1086460	1200880	1270723	1054270	847518	755263	402258	266037	332243	236377	259899	216985	224496	220766	274449
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	458310	302643	305214	156834	151666	127283	168340	241227	240772	117038	496191	76027
Hg	1A1a	7948454	8563715	9005768	8673790	8039893	6999424	6573242	4221133	3383315	2838753	2730260	2319113	2115122	1950278	1723523	2032261	1466398	882157	896781	823663	861958	1004720	714074	796297	672156	590315	469242	506557
Hg	1A2a	662923	644607	572803	473439	543741	651721	630431	586693	602753	499330	491036	448301	405670	347459	331374	344646	480966	463549	380027	236489	382238	403032	277645	396389	443720	372558	209022	411450
Hg	1A2b	2115557	2192798	2289003	2140255	2132689	2294188	2374284	2258837	2276016	2220610	2258922	2219433	2251428	110742	117945	72329	116675	124680	137620	91322	73634	84710	69629	47730	64747	55093	81753	74481
Hg	1A2e	313062	359587	323185	270792	285744	300970	282864	264255	265223	253034	207230	204675	209048	188985	212602	228448	225638	242669	185741	168262	154996	157171	220800	143537	159875	145771	135596	134105
Hg	1A2f	3164641	3238890	2918239	2625558	2438573	2253828	2045483	1847690	1667534	1433946	1265012	1009974	848838	775710	989081	859627	715968	735551	709388	728434	583540	847868	723054	459354	542712	438528	412856	429358
Hg	1A4bi	667233	1073883	563043	519740	553942	605414	534829	457395	446144	438895	359864	377630	277941	254425	247021	261404	223934	264672	229561	193477	228703	270915	223045	226716	156758	176429	182123	183450
Hg	2B10a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	712900	1001706	813120	748690	471156	443018	376770	445640	387783	454230	648380	356260	317520	99320
Hg	2C1	302290	289849	281027	266471	303543	314567	313301	357775	354297	332417	352419	332599	312198	298670	299112	274121	454580	226144	262059	209586	352324	234262	288369	290320	559906	295671	207688	142338
Hg	2D3a	809300	809300	809300	626000	626000	626000	626000	630000	607986	610986	602371	616971	607173	544113	585000	589967	514333	449500	389600	464200	379600	367200	336200	357800	401200	508200	553200	692200
Hg	5C1bii	974363	1007591	1073485	1057544	1208689	1175419	1146830	962694	924641	861843	800152	726010	671490	542334	453313	336810	848290	109100	149630	130859	296635	141689	159239	158672	145996	170129	44612	58150
Hg	5C1biii	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305	7458	1810	1467	3114	2255	1050	3672

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
HCB	1A2b	1125840161	1145991474	1172030466	555626720	2622291	2856616	2732313	2618373	2083439	70466			0														1
HCB	2C1	408759	393241	376565	356508	358428	346402	327906	356664	361828	373749	382660	341469	377894	365996	387616	370470	374252	358081	327508	235833	300527	293046	285216	305841	324619	299566	287793	321847
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1196169916	1217614260	1244287381	627311923	72559886	70044621	70754864	62398771	56073168	48441128	43845567	34401785	26304032	20753896	15622098	10980604	5609051	5760080	5897115	5993873	6927193	6533135	6947992	6395000	6508582	6894876	6437998	6503764
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1196169916	1217614260	1244287381	627311923	72559886	70044621	70754864	62398771	56073168	48441128	43845567	34401785	26304032	20753896	15622098	10980604	5609051	5760080	5897115	5993873	6927193	6533135	6947992	6395000	6508582	6894876	6437998	6503764
PCB	1A2a	5922231	5661898	5166615	4544715	5119684	5514677	5237693	5256318	5396396	4827745	4767149	4308018	4313503	3972511	3901417	3906839	4361178	4560904	4399651	2701785	3487290	3157199	3265396	3451205	4063586	3721516	2991511	3853069
PCB	1A4ai	2986960	3399508	2611735	2272247	1969403	2093698	2264770	2126607	2646863	2640668	2331230	2224000	1911141	2126816	2291457	2310846	2054329	2134814	1969778	2367752	2140065	2147749	2128427	2257435	1976456	2273965	2119463	2077701
PCB	1A4bi	15272775	19152695	16284870	15566178	14176601	14459598	15066530	13384854	13483225	12899022	11885987	12680761	11383999	11893365	11831278	11750262	10806663	10362483	11182428	10767632	11922870	10047428	11223567	12059420	9693260	10276346	10871658	10620150