Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: FR      Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
NMVOC11C11090710837410874710416310987911136999952110171103025113200109055103134102445129784106674114504123400101792998521014369267199515957789684798524103510100456
NMVOC6B145226714275841425635140706214907751511777137267815159181419617154774014802371448327141104917905591462398156258916848161391246139117915350321437765153359014797681496429151827016038291555414
SOx1A2b440234723143275234141123513670134951421913236126361116110115102384040306424242888239014952016119217991458193449243566
SOx1A2d361444495436207329533249227148264452439620319167311555510617896167896185534657465925303224992326204622325709206717321709
SOx2C34157364953275436489946795031535561466197683867341210654386043631457775539465037513268344234813507469755655427
NH33Da3570435620255723553375550055759558105538155112551765672656950556625413053210526895242852510522565184351581505424995850086504895056850323

HM (Unit = g)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Pb1A2b61005064564319265451414552113473515671715139844052247546496694005189375346488604476179613925052239108791133056213116901475747135013916945081061747875978842672751070987086643060720409410064472860
Pb1A3bi336336529721637343011520125448132097382711519158051020881081874668884755975604654841796465447573643801116231158351539914855142101367813300128351251312246117851145011276113501147911627
Pb1A3bii46254238729028725818177898914216703912431462898047471839076207273865462380306431516245889672588258225652552252625872603244325352582256125322521248225042475
Pb5C1a2527699028611357319548463387638130667548247565372194696216343600141929409898037929889644618173169949167111435158927099210774083090894215721132529332003011521312184341570214494
Cd1A1a40534414386053464723845429874272833379056036043312545831211725918886761919039170372214601061219417991957909969501420585466419291348046335864200715219835195210175772165143171110
Cd1A2a13615711536838146255313635801509508146560213819941518708156805415317611536969137582314974991484524120382110314407708517648501029476508849659487648875524060612025776147639507772895
Cd1A2b2547439248321624667072331769225524919574181971528193224418798751540956142793713418311303814328721311265257745157466163866149149193400188914189027180520161902181569178524161952
Cd1A2f17075341659064158554814665781440137141316813397341299127126083211822641132841104468410478031083583120088012708771054257847515752467402505265963334405238631260105217189222303221482
Cd2C142152234076588381351136466114161989436222343785095050154492928846694945018050482117445888832839157941192610356458310302643305214156834151666127283168340241227240772117038496191
Hg1A1a794967885650889007111867510480410847000574657344742222553384449283984427313392320089211586519510631724209203284314669478826258972738241078624761005092714475796784672582594829483364
Hg1A2a656965636406564995466477538834643090621885577777593614490750480429438098400093343044331374335834476983470034372965233189393354424307302164411193462149368583227727
Hg1A2b2114800219174822878922140260213268022941842374288225883422760112220612225894122194502251437110763117962723511166961259161376259368473950851487039547731647465511780106
Hg1A2e311438358048321517270196284461299528281464262978263552251482207931205223208329189564208636228807224560270099185256179625175324174280262828144025155923154474148547
Hg1A2f316470532413502921500263049824432482259100205058818531161672904144011012708461016598855604782261996333866367715021735524709043746253602017872868752712462963542852445318410226
Hg1A4bi6660761071590564288522793550332600053529160452701439706433393355253372720273223240859233040238219201495238520235264175388181800162020203957197461147353155148171273
Hg2B10a284878023681582106000204500020970001992000198300013140001131000108300010070008310007460008570007129001001706813120748690471156443018376770445640387783454230648380356260317520
Hg2C1302290289849281027266471303543314567313301357775354297332417352419332599312198298670299112274121454580226144262059209586352324234262288369290320559906295671207688
Hg5C1bii974363100759110734851057544120868911754191146830962694924641861843800152726010671490542334453313336810848290109100149630130859296635141689159239158672145996170129171858
Hg5C1biii12268289351017219755670004508134137853502372835001516671371491101908359562705381752461281030801630653012358305745818101467311422551050

POP (Unit = mg)
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
HCB1A2b1125840120114599141711720304065556267202622291285661627323132618373208343970466                 
HCBNATIONALTOTAL11957580461217217994124391067162695579372201222696976697042634862041630557106184806690843462293340598792592568620386765152331741075816952939445495913569324659122896017044590814660808675663920581347855260895762836
PCB1A2a589142356205265127277450962550943045471437519492852116405350702478485547145284257524428503639496353901386386451743405524592603436972526865233538789327261033951313523412415285836971503076281
PCB1A2e1770680207254718590811672167168631617705501686878158017315548031468234117777511678331142601104207611537391195453117663613821849836359820221012188982869155423491472094560510268621051022
PCB1A4ai300586234196962632606229233019825512104857227602721380372658285265162923422712236597192100921257502282828228020020561552104524202576723519352065757206825319614912170612208689321718761998350
PCB1A4bi1527345019153618162947731558423114163708144390361504303013365430134552841287578711866103126597731136268611828966117649021164002610699832102386801121141810681603116985299517813110896881186435795815581015044610831796