Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3di(i)	203861	211469	204273	198622	176716	181832	190943	209460	230339	232910	241034	204321	197968	214570	243242	221794	230514	236376	206419	206258	200220	215135	203430	185566	157927	140764
NOx	1A4cii	139030	135902	136424	135873	137728	139041	137584	138446	138173	137759	139357	139783	138218	137885	141912	135439	128828	120385	117820	112155	103091	99796	88912	90441	77724	67346
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671	99515	95778	96847	98524	103510
NMVOC	1A4bi	514108	617603	585781	564048	488269	496493	531229	453017	441613	402702	359922	347560	300824	309997	293304	269189	231695	205295	201152	192604	201949	153964	163386	177220	140054	143493
NMVOC	1A4cii	39751	39448	39254	38396	38878	36841	36773	37076	34552	34549	34863	32475	32138	32007	30289	29345	28358	27031	25993	24260	22284	21221	18984	18694	16142	14183
NMVOC	2D3a	113465	112353	111238	109947	110201	110444	110682	110687	110706	110868	111178	111534	111896	112246	112492	112764	112986	113130	113560	113959	114336	114747	115247	115697	116152	116629
NMVOC	2H2	30110	27878	28548	28037	27778	27835	27834	27457	27003	27434	27372	26833	26992	26837	28762	28922	29480	30401	29516	29598	30303	31971	31643	31606	31616	32047
NMVOC	6B	1424050	1399635	1397942	1379253	1462607	1483066	1343761	1486934	1390245	1518483	1450279	1418282	1381229	1761166	1433674	1533979	1656214	1362083	1343310	1470704	1387875	1471794	1431552	1440842	1461134	1544968
SOx	1A1a	327449	332198	327499	225225	207363	217116	221907	174680	220330	160846	142071	105603	106413	125262	111227	121314	98820	97496	79615	74226	65885	39574	60290	54309	24135	18461
SOx	1A2e	55303	68640	51946	44677	47301	45710	40021	39808	38711	23987	25493	16785	15065	9216	11515	13734	14248	15774	9732	9839	10745	7965	12838	7781	6773	6233
SOx	2C3	4157	3649	5327	5436	4899	4679	5031	5355	6146	6197	6838	6734	12106	5438	6043	6314	5777	5539	4650	3751	3268	3442	3481	3507	4697	5565
NH3	3B1a	141997	135121	129115	126225	126163	125061	123300	121374	120656	120284	123051	123736	123522	120269	118800	118727	116683	117028	118343	114639	114894	115352	114234	114828	116680	116007
NH3	3B1b	163261	163129	161891	161191	161610	163802	164708	163135	162335	163060	173780	172707	167075	161876	160815	161288	164474	167814	171331	170396	168511	164248	163484	163869	165694	167612
CO	1A4bii	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103277	103219	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288	103288

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
BC	1A2gvii	2844	3514	4706	4400	3942	3437	3126	2439	2002	1468	1219	1042	811	747	589	453

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2b	61670409	57096827	55181899	52793007	52220227	52064833	52927917	50322091	52524779	46478063	47600632	39228160	39094261	1305000	1291062	1465191	1336025	1683034	1059048	864631	842595	736927	976596	652859	719572	410042
Pb	1A3bi	3363365289	2163734294	1520125442	1320973774	1151915772	1020881062	874668866	755975590	654841780	465447561	6438666	16786	16385	16299	15928	15392	15043	14673	14473	14183	13976	13406	12876	12217	12192	12255
Pb	1A3bii	462539835	290283329	181776382	142158365	124305169	98041961	83903925	72735630	62378025	43166322	589332	2588	2582	2565	2552	2526	2587	2603	2443	2535	2582	2561	2532	2521	2482	2504
Pb	1A4bi	30121567	35920323	34446266	33192802	28681249	29099179	31301750	26823202	26255298	24058772	21662854	21105431	18471084	19304199	18501420	17263331	15256734	13649935	13624512	13212887	14050729	10780259	11487423	12597432	9989600	10179654
Pb	5C1a	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83090	89421	57211	32529	33200	30115	23987	23737	20219
Cd	1A1a	4053439	4386051	4647236	4542969	4272827	3790527	3605004	2545799	2116817	1889119	1916955	1698757	1460244	1221081	995676	910631	501820	585905	417255	348503	336155	200813	219835	195150	175649	163011
Cd	1A2a	1434124	1606106	1528948	1420670	1577149	1529571	1417777	1567133	1616231	1563131	1590341	1451875	1567542	1556398	1277513	1097971	831969	828070	1088705	547674	712392	765963	581724	663793	828914	694604
Cd	1A2b	2548721	2484431	2468277	2335532	2258450	1960566	1973739	1935496	1883810	1538018	1425595	1338813	1301853	325268	308477	256317	155558	162315	148784	191863	188902	187114	179100	163226	181456	178523
Cd	1A2f	1718567	1662609	1584845	1461942	1438857	1411614	1334877	1296353	1262796	1181699	1135736	1044882	1048033	1084076	1201357	1259234	1059915	832072	732967	392547	258373	339233	241669	259294	214462	221977
Cd	1A3di(i)	113136	116657	111378	108552	95986	98322	101035	111326	123447	126161	128069	108536	107418	119611	139005	127068	134381	139640	120420	121159	116660	127433	119579	109887	92312	79849
Cd	1A4bi	472489	566468	538586	518811	448819	456320	490437	419674	410743	376268	338216	329802	288250	300800	288204	268975	237830	213289	212477	206031	219119	168133	179405	196523	155790	159019
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	458310	302643	305214	156834	151666	127283	168340	241227	240772	117038
Cd	5C1a	1734108	1795079	1844681	1839917	1690419	1456219	1280990	947007	780176	548478	520688	281109	190174	113168	45128	36807	16212	19698	11969	7785	5835	3375	3139	2676	2743	1909
Cd	5C1biii	2181027	1662402	1283511	1008000	801445	735617	622644	504000	268730	241479	192412	143971	96470	61751	37268	3650	3940	1620	1240	1693	3213	2518	846	407	326	211
Hg	1A1a	7949479	8564746	9006787	8674232	8040969	6998745	6569877	4220942	3385584	2838540	2715034	2301538	2115442	1947935	1729969	2046309	1467124	882894	893584	824466	862476	1004907	714108	796076	671708	593378
Hg	1A2a	774090	857528	743023	595786	951622	768736	709256	685865	714374	587577	589431	533958	420734	463651	370660	325228	497582	491776	402370	249007	391830	376853	182579	268319	247490	222203
Hg	1A2b	2100084	2176219	2274606	2139755	2130655	2292471	2371671	2256867	2274383	2216235	2255195	2214613	2248301	105238	113501	70068	113642	123434	137042	91226	73930	82086	68123	49846	64563	55108
Hg	1A2e	292681	339591	302570	253385	283246	279375	250278	255833	254450	232072	226565	203562	216716	196961	225390	242363	242174	290321	207509	199277	198401	160129	223582	157324	154671	131242
Hg	1A2f	3213420	3189840	2887253	2598791	2440689	2241065	2024188	1841535	1667291	1437326	1269248	1014153	855976	803088	1013046	860453	721367	728752	702427	749670	623074	859618	779341	474298	581686	473337
Hg	1A3di(i)	181708	187400	178986	174432	154270	158047	162524	179053	198493	202787	205984	174568	172650	192081	223052	203882	215502	223845	193109	194254	187086	204262	191716	176139	148026	128158
Hg	2B10a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	729000	818000	616820	590790	576570	532320	482730	538280	473490	380086	358060	351907
Hg	2C1	302290	289849	281027	266471	303543	314567	313301	357775	354297	332417	352419	332599	312198	298670	299112	274121	454580	226144	262059	209586	352324	234262	288369	290320	559906	295671
Hg	5C1a	2792580	2571451	2304794	2014988	1883578	1780736	1517289	1026193	757712	521070	491063	268431	182268	115938	57165	68336	41850	22500	24706	18440	15119	19664	10974	11841	10808	7769
Hg	5C1bii	974363	1007591	1073485	1057544	1208689	1175419	1146830	962694	924641	861843	800152	726010	671490	542334	453313	336810	848290	109100	149630	130859	296635	141689	159239	158672	145996	166100
Hg	5C1biii	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305	7458	1810	1467	3114	2255

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A3bii	3665	3907	4102	4247	4336	4372	4460	4614	4678	4769	4813	4995	5133	5259	5278	5331	5373	5359	5362	5487	5715	5836	5556	5045	4541	4102
DIOX	1A4bi	34105	40851	38881	37458	32434	32956	35427	30361	29742	27280	24572	24042	21050	21958	21067	19698	17438	15649	15623	15163	16118	12391	13242	14475	11473	11728
DIOX	5C1biii	68157	51950	40110	31500	25045	22988	19458	15750	7815	6151	3944	2810	1722	615	197	2	3	4	3	3	4	3	5	2	6	8
HCB	1A2b	1125839531	1145990751	1172029794	555626720	2622291	2856616	2732313	2618373	2083439	70466
HCB	1A3di(i)	201979	209583	202575	196948	175282	180399	189647	207993	228628	231054	239349	202895	196373	212539	240616	219369	227774	233392	203958	203720	197846	212387	200919	183198	156027	139301
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1195762441	1217225409	1243916398	626962253	72222171	69702712	70432080	62047198	55715687	48071415	43457008	34059520	25914011	20394225	15239702	10702148	5359023	5509591	5729826	5957750	6024682	5944218	6062922	5648808	5788028	5893100
PCB	1A2f	3190768	3954839	3125074	2624115	2758521	2557972	2418345	2319732	2470416	2243975	2375146	2249029	2218923	2285129	2346288	2420764	2485443	2451064	2518158	2348689	2647459	3018213	2591887	2005457	2038974	1937517
PCB	1A4ai	2810454	3468159	2966381	2691622	2343304	2666000	2987513	2595207	2665247	2515119	2261514	2283037	1768057	1977302	2087602	2014968	1881777	1899601	1847753	2211841	2021632	1963891	1805974	1897810	1862734	1947225
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	183454327	180599466	168948213	181528881	149020241	159967800	154599279	136814922	135765995	119623258	106792210	96925806	75322312	74624959	76532682	74813602	72281904	68333411	66667380	58462782	60456988	54298148	56468461	55555239	47552419	46201910