Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671	99515	95778
NMVOC	1A4bi	515791	612266	585643	563906	488280	496680	531557	452975	441640	402816	359917	347558	300821	309989	293329	269172	231627	203248	196853	185724	190990	142422	156236
NMVOC	3D2	113465	112353	111238	109947	110201	110444	110682	110706	110744	110924	111253	111628	112009	112377	112642	112932	113173	113337	113785	114202	114351	114788	115278
NMVOC	7B	1240070	1218411	1218816	1200790	1282815	1301893	1162984	1307491	1211382	1340765	1268010	1236252	1202566	1587467	1263077	1363805	1485770	1189307	1167996	1298176	1215400	1300002	1261155
SOx	1A1b	126967	122388	121542	123364	123726	118832	119579	115737	117132	113174	82617	81729	79204	72691	68856	56558	54963	49907	45934	36596	28697	23745	16520
SOx	1B2aiv	53797	53000	52983	50492	50700	50280	50602	55853	57446	52510	52185	47996	41460	38696	43472	39537	46956	43021	40558	32975	27470	27080	19334
NH3	4B1a	161491	153662	146846	143548	143485	142003	139792	137396	136378	135772	138706	139279	138725	134996	133047	132683	130115	130222	131455	127336	127636	128178	126923
NH3	4D1a	159027	147823	156897	137887	142378	141251	137529	151521	149779	154179	160624	141634	155454	149529	155163	155119	156095	152620	176496	167847	160622	198908	161397
CO	1A2a	730363	693744	661332	611349	682847	665077	618375	682220	706375	683088	694628	625164	683225	669752	666533	638243	655270	632862	614365	408655	457835	409735	309373

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	53357392	58520484	61299753	59926761	56095507	49360770	47592872	33116736	27250576	22651856	23343833	18140000	14742655	11105928	8969401	8160105	4806296	4270873	4114462	3683925	3135315	2644952	3069389
Pb	1A2b	61693300	57115216	55194240	52799938	52227365	52071039	52934323	50329869	52532545	46489455	47610371	39240037	39097470	1305710	1291286	1476128	1337308	1682522	1058484	866653	844806	737149	974840
Pb	1A3bi	3649507923	2562326059	1921403116	1761334204	1544256998	1361634556	1172760402	1013714292	886337635	649281647	11556967	1462988	1433278	1419532	1387132	1346265	1335201	1334370	1320899	1298402	1297409	1316476	1354151
Pb	1A3bii	462834927	290686512	182165313	142331480	124420757	98224590	83955622	72653754	62315510	43264170	1009991	373041	373213	367924	332810	334678	338353	336074	325090	329975	345460	357075	361957
Pb	1A4bi	30139157	35842472	34438229	33184692	28675207	29095412	31299176	26816059	26248512	24052957	21656540	21097940	18463967	19296877	18493810	17255432	15248642	13566267	13444580	12918858	13576740	10271063	11322087
Pb	6Cc	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83090	89421	57211	32529	33054	32347
Cd	1A1a	4038004	4475085	4643253	4541691	4271189	3790504	3605163	2543322	2116420	1891319	1913287	1699077	1462615	1222660	995446	910422	501532	585783	417274	348515	336162	199575	305975
Cd	1A2a	1379104	1553581	1479573	1377251	1527404	1481491	1372072	1521176	1571470	1524300	1537849	1377012	1523701	1486590	1205902	1030511	769312	764060	1028531	506045	654944	645174	519762
Cd	1A2b	2550928	2486587	2469179	2336166	2259172	1961252	1974427	1936285	1884599	1539179	1426255	1339814	1302204	325393	308533	257055	155732	162270	148735	192157	189224	187163	178882
Cd	1A2fi	2046132	1982046	1915022	1793119	1780564	1767573	1710369	1674132	1663511	1568250	1524688	1433960	1422872	1447895	1537807	1922262	1376146	1161618	1075435	535636	365608	418249	349551
Cd	1A3bi	376302	382716	392774	391491	384081	373955	365000	356181	351499	349108	335045	333078	321657	312732	301546	287870	279638	274801	266863	259140	253050	254540	258040
Cd	1A4bi	473772	562498	538504	518726	448845	456466	490698	419662	410778	376366	338312	329917	288359	300911	288321	269083	237894	212109	209857	201698	212004	160428	177016
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	451265	299177	298944	153606	149896	127283	168340
Cd	6Ca	2181027	1662402	1283511	1008000	801445	735617	622644	504000	268730	241479	192412	143971	96470	61751	37268	3650	3940	1620	1240	1693	3213	2518	846
Cd	6Cc	1734108	1795079	1844681	1839917	1690419	1456219	1280990	947007	780176	548478	520688	281109	190174	113168	45128	36807	16212	19698	11969	7785	5835	3360	5190
Hg	1A2a	629661	675462	584552	465633	814437	639272	593322	576990	596332	475531	495634	493136	474216	499261	490683	376535	582409	581161	477023	338897	468083	502595	288844
Hg	1A2b	2151319	2198036	2317525	2162372	2153791	2310827	2391363	2281227	2298650	2238978	2295666	2249581	2254687	105544	113669	111829	115447	123618	137079	91906	74571	82488	68237
Hg	1A2e	310550	296476	318283	266748	303137	299785	276275	266671	268140	266311	212172	181997	118971	150647	152148	198592	217115	257012	203019	212708	205512	179136	182921
Hg	1A2fi	3394264	3229073	3012058	2723863	2574932	2355950	2156241	1954311	1765698	1533510	1353506	1094370	931998	863159	1090047	918660	788871	781006	769242	779632	646505	849777	810100
Hg	2B5a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	729000	818000	616820	590790	576570	532320	482730	538280	473490
Hg	2C1	302290	289849	281027	266471	303543	314567	313301	357775	354297	332417	352419	332599	312198	298670	299112	274121	447182	224790	262059	205160	348782	234262	288369
Hg	6Ca	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305	7458	1810
Hg	6Cb	979907	1006620	1065999	1049770	1200642	1178307	1165092	993656	968094	917580	867966	795342	740673	618651	525510	412712	926411	192365	237738	231268	389106	237038	250044
Hg	6Cc	2792580	2571451	2304794	2014988	1883578	1780736	1517289	1026193	757712	521070	491063	268431	182268	115938	57165	68336	41850	22500	24706	18440	15119	19577	11426

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A4bi	34192	40588	38877	37454	32437	32968	35446	30361	29747	27290	24574	24045	21053	21962	21075	19704	17444	15566	15436	14859	15616	11852	13068
HCB	1A2b	1125842135	1145991753	1172032057	555627919	2623520	2857589	2733358	2619664	2084725	71596	2154	1812	312			2212	79	8	1	5		8	12
HCB	1A3bii	957755	1054216	1149291	1233693	1274885	1318285	1354494	1409461	1435243	1470004	1492998	1552060	1607645	1661738	1675032	1707734	1725557	1732763	1761469	1811611	1901528	1971476	2000677
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1200182586	1221924685	1248939768	632220078	77743103	75543548	76550651	68378290	62414612	55032151	50524142	41606620	33829886	28631566	23675131	19255094	14180049	14516099	14881189	15363932	15718180	15968566	16635622