Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FI Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3di(i)	49957	47636	59342	48698	39356	32303	35507	37977	40290	41788	47251	41105	46766	46310	36041	34664	37957	30503	25616	15530	13024	11723	6604	7065	5118	16640	15866	19558	18028	18664
NOx	1A4bi	6553	6442	6470	6401	6302	6100	6360	6336	6483	6295	5832	6403	6379	6406	6401	6380	6154	6174	5856	6187	6938	5658	6200	5536	5541	5130	5628	5389	5218	5053
NMVOC	1A4bi	16099	16195	16229	16273	17014	16245	17296	17233	17754	17164	16306	18234	18369	18841	19093	20173	19280	20091	19862	21329	24454	20692	22959	20737	20984	20106	22536	21824	21385	21072
NMVOC	1B2aiv	6600	5400	6510	7231	6478	5000	4565	4745	4876	4913	4748	4590	4085	4379	3956	3196	3809	3892	3605	3411	4881	3493	3851	3778	3064	3035	3331	3048	2948	2705
NH3	1A4bi	946	957	959	962	1003	962	1024	1020	1052	1016	927	1037	1046	1074	1090	1124	1075	1125	1129	1213	1348	1138	1264	1141	1154	1092	1221	1178	1156	1136
NH3	2C7c	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2550	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CO	1A2d	29503	25358	22448	26510	29017	28401	26653	28693	29128	29310	29413	26721	27149	26519	28823	23834	26426	23580	19631	14246	17883	17691	18124	19355	19511	17740	18278	19783	21878	20602
CO	1A3dii	22554	23187	23289	23099	22934	23464	23330	23654	24095	24644	23473	23193	23347	22743	22598	22947	23764	24001	19831	19836	21110	16328	17480	18904	19479	19931	19123	19310	19577	19777
CO	1A4bi	130582	131983	132268	132685	138337	132603	141125	140546	144898	139956	127719	142868	144044	147958	150062	154744	148021	154735	155252	166754	185230	156397	173649	156683	158447	150012	167575	161733	158622	155957

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2d	3140	2460	2381	2999	3097	2447	2092	1913	1618	1125	1374	1345	1431	1300	1303	1399	1330	1410	1295	1019
PM2.5	1A4bi	7717	8621	8684	8912	9030	9162	8773	9153	9160	9823	10917	9193	10195	9192	9286	8611	9603	9260	9079	8920
PM10	1A2d	4416	3545	3289	3966	4107	3265	2927	2651	2223	1591	1907	1856	1971	1794	1793	2035	1832	1948	1841	1490
PM10	1A4bi	8025	8962	9027	9260	9381	9513	9111	9500	9501	10186	11320	9529	10564	9524	9620	8920	9943	9583	9395	9227
TSP	1A2d	4934	3945	3620	4292	4451	3558	3261	2958	2451	1774	2111	2058	2185	2039	2036	2338	2120	2259	2168	1752
TSP	1A4bi	8391	9370	9437	9680	9804	9940	9521	9925	9923	10637	11822	9949	11029	9942	10042	9311	10376	9996	9799	9622
BC	1A4bi	2208	2469	2488	2554	2589	2665	2551	2663	2639	2834	3171	2672	2966	2674	2704	2485	2774	2674	2622	2576
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	6500	6674	6580	6440	6295	5900	5528	5512	5315	5319	5599	4873	5089	4633	4527	4152	4351	4128	3980	3848
BC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6500	6674	6580	6440	6295	5900	5528	5512	5315	5319	5599	4873	5089	4633	4527	4152	4351	4128	3980	3848
BC	NTCOMPLIANCE	6500	6674	6580	6440	6295	5900	5528	5512	5315	5319	5599	4873	5089	4633	4527	4152	4351	4128	3980	3848

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	7541108	6165047	3991076	4221131	3633488	2266111	2549808	2655085	2319559	1914728	2062325	2236269	2101319	3263587	2656844	2121464	2378973	2312662	2648614	2144187	2581283	2553799	2599213	2439894	2115641	2106953	2036387	2024422	2188937	1962530
Pb	1A1b	2096106	2029604	2195885	2810130	3097033	3035062	3382560	956995	3429360	3243970	3353340	3270797	3722232	3535961	3767424	3532659	3153472	3681294	3744927	3589223	3416781	3674207	3340945	3753335	3785476	3133818	3492974	3255175	2785349	2997118
Pb	1A2d	6199193	6184953	5377439	5115145	5750233	5305557	4914043	5386076	5348231	5478129	5049884	4567465	5860238	4170206	5104381	5061309	5659092	4663096	4079854	2640362	3414964	3382142	3411724	3382506	3708921	3501368	3533008	4021165	5140476	2943639
Pb	1A2f	2873152	1998141	2325899	2002794	2071174	2362165	2398164	2748927	2899119	2990336	3045669	3098517	3231079	3018616	3070723	3153785	3149247	3122309	3201364	1671292	2254755	2333420	1846126	1895146	1735202	1539310	1688250	1763165	922537	711870
Pb	1A3bi	166003032	140003030	94003029	37002853	422922	2884	2785	2863	2825	2810	2714	2758	2817	2847	2907	2907	2896	2911	2804	2771	2727	2655	2609	2573	2549	2520	2509	2479	2462	2420
Pb	1A3bvi	7220217	7047612	7005224	6946638	6932268	7021807	7071452	7219182	7384006	6575157	5632311	4655604	3664333	2647258	1584931	494393	498318	483049	480981	474675	478776	479305	474797	479973	486245	486814	491181	486694	488342	485007
Pb	1A4bi	861950	716400	826750	702600	1051250	573100	599250	585950	593750	566450	527150	577250	567400	576320	581620	606670	584920	603720	578225	615645	695555	578050	636570	572780	575800	539350	595500	569410	558570	546695
Pb	1A4ci	248789	245288	241748	235414	235759	215353	203661	211516	227857	226225	243770	250809	272121	289076	302278	286810	282476	315946	345210	392412	462524	378736	417975	398610	372221	337791	395855	410435	429890	425167
Pb	1A5a	261944	346435	143807	173344	140944	189655	217611	203194	215465	457809	216736	288930	493404	413998	507150	508493	415358	357663	435650	502691	548346	599974	663993	575603	637734	621932	757607	758404	494619	1069348
Pb	2C1	34463226	16209473	30744363	32831303	40613400	47814170	23703730	5433394	10142714	8211759	7974043	7581211	7675760	4552150	5523760	2503460	5386030	2675060	1278880	2103340	3916490	2616730	400090	271820	494780	261730	331550	364510	376403	395152
Pb	2C7c	80081000	45130700	9048000	6158200	3140600	566800	1970800	3957900	2418532	1066244	342322	797806	643630	318300	1048350	892790	718800	632730	349290	404360	424090	624720	341980	464620	783180	444690	476970	422748	298060	262960
Pb	2G	310273	355575	736359	815431	1349291	1111409	634236	1018465	892001	1766707	1073962	1111823	1399112	1197770	1353671	1457545	1700462	1969688	1827946	1227780	1334072	1110914	1452870	1066049	1155724	1173281	1181068	1021338	1113300	890581
Cd	1A1b	47675	46194	49987	63965	70311	68854	76966	21658	77570	72613	73576	73292	83667	79298	84702	79437	71757	83800	85242	81682	77739	83613	76062	91276	92643	77789	87590	74101	63021	68284
Cd	1A2d	352554	342799	314266	324939	372887	341154	315741	355200	351676	358880	473269	439570	365974	323790	388644	349984	394342	315613	269235	171820	238806	218419	224603	259797	247088	273831	273566	308808	324921	186832
Cd	1A4bi	132905	131228	134123	131702	144843	128946	136981	136145	140193	135157	125439	140105	140976	144775	146847	154916	148319	155126	154163	165556	187287	157841	175251	158038	159785	149541	166905	160816	157797	155039
Cd	2A3	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	240000	140000	160000	260010	160010	31429
Cd	2C1	390235	222028	521680	666126	899140	997940	499700	51778	104558	63562	124535	127149	125420	60360	93400	98600	121250	42160	24890	62350	150340	132440	22170	19590	18810	21640	8500	5456	5619	4034
Cd	2C6	850040	850026	750003	760004	39004	70004	120001	102000	110000	150000	93000	87180	56860	63380	100100	104000	107000	105300	77500	46400	53600	63000	23540	20300	22700	24240	13630	13260	12000	10800
Cd	2C7c	4203000	1601450	1000000	900100	600000	20000	229100	326150	425420	269230	63481	400510	101500	111630	251910	141490	71000	50050	61920	57780	60990	55010	36090	13470	4400	1880	15030	10105	6550	1810
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6685065	3810535	3326164	3386844	2719690	2134925	1917333	1539125	1699365	1538388	1414031	1745094	1374596	1327277	1615047	1450951	1426068	1266091	1206573	1156997	1290374	1222736	1176966	1079379	918999	887990	942545	954960	880947	793907
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	6685065	3810535	3326164	3386844	2719690	2134925	1917333	1539125	1699365	1538388	1414031	1745094	1374596	1327277	1615047	1450951	1426068	1266091	1206573	1156997	1290374	1222736	1176966	1079379	918999	887990	942545	954960	880947	793907
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6685065	3810535	3326164	3386844	2719690	2134925	1917333	1539125	1699365	1538388	1414031	1745094	1374596	1327277	1615047	1450951	1426068	1266091	1206573	1156997	1290374	1222736	1176966	1079379	918999	887990	942545	954960	880947	793907
Hg	1A2f	16961	16914	28184	24341	21770	33200	20204	13352	23674	14186	17288	16222	18338	15750	45512	34062	70201	25982	22529	35385	44743	25541	28026	21876	21195	23075	19489	26929	53299	33883
Hg	1A4bi	23759	22814	23027	22838	25182	22510	23927	23738	24427	23538	21833	24377	24529	25179	25503	26827	25727	26858	26306	28182	31880	26763	29652	26719	26984	25259	28161	27127	26623	26170
Hg	2C1	5000	3900	4000	5000	6000	6000	5000	16000	68700	40000	43120	57960	41540	147090	163340	345500	409320	329010	297630	245920	303130	254620	207520	159020	167020	121320	118120	91340	101750	131460
Hg	2C6						70000	70000	100000	10000	10000	900	500	270	2500	3200	5500	5000	7000	6600	6460	2430	2910	1150	1280	1850	860	940	700	1480	1900
Hg	2C7a	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	10	26700	10	10	9	8	7	5	6	5	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4
Hg	2C7c	28000	70000	70000	15000	10000	1000	14000	4106	3886	700	600	1400	1800	1260	700	1000	800	800	230	210	720	140	760	400	490	800	290	7860	78320	6220
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1086065	929457	890854	765221	808063	801890	866198	802507	693267	636198	603664	684325	671836	818907	753327	891222	1034303	872876	820613	756448	888550	755606	745813	761606	706815	620930	591037	581787	679154	586585
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1086065	929457	890854	765221	808063	801890	866198	802507	693267	636198	603664	684325	671836	818907	753327	891222	1034303	872876	820613	756448	888550	755606	745813	761606	706815	620930	591037	581787	679154	586585
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1086065	929457	890854	765221	808063	801890	866198	802507	693267	636198	603664	684325	671836	818907	753327	891222	1034303	872876	820613	756448	888550	755606	745813	761606	706815	620930	591037	581787	679154	586585

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2d	1032	824	840	948	1020	1064	1107	1242	1312	1330	1386	1272	1107	1092	1111	912	1038	963	971	1107	1135	1174	1152	1459	2006	1550	1721	906	1018	879
DIOX	1A2gviii	399	1758	530	297	219	274	221	320	270	255	923	281	273	231	241	211	390	236	236	233	218	223	322	730	632	825	618	537	731	191
DIOX	1A4bi	900	904	903	908	944	907	965	960	990	956	886	991	999	1026	1041	1096	1049	1096	1087	1167	1320	1111	1234	1112	1124	1052	1174	1131	1110	1090
DIOX	1B1b	1461	1413	1494	2622	2766	2760	2730	2637	2736	2700	2730	2727	2736	2686	2711	2681	2610	2595	2581	2214	2480	2557	2642	2633	2663	2627	2647	2592	2582	2509
DIOX	2C1	4552	4098	4440	4586	4902	5060	3073	3224	3251	3258	3273	3242	3222	1318	1317	1328	901	891	841	391	2871	1011	1440	1300	1570	540	790	557	1196	1076
HCB	1A4bi	213705	213556	217339	214706	232529	211765	225069	223873	230676	222480	206480	230784	232392	238755	242255	255755	244755	256157	255294	274314	310333	261775	290794	262275	265255	248235	277196	267176	262157	257603
HCB	2B10a	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	8190000	2480000	460000	16700000	23010000	26600000	30700000	10300000	20000000	1500000	18800000	1960000	10200000	13970000	8930000	52000000	25500000	23900000	15450000
PCB	1A4bi	2480791	2509430	2514873	2523166	2630946	2522828	2684876	2672863	2756901	2660832	2468617	2762792	2786723	2864642	2906574	3068326	2936264	3074087	3061768	3289790	3721966	3139475	3487553	3145341	3181295	2977153	3325189	3205106	3145009	3090731
PCB	1B1b	1753200	1695600	1792800	3146400	3319200	3312000	3276000	3164400	3283200	3240000	3276000	3272400	3283200	3222781	3253403	3217061	3131773	3114025	3097541	2665037	2979680	3068644	3169840	3159367	3196022	3152225	3176172	3110648	3098560	3010406