Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FI Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A4bi	6153	6042	6070	6013	5777	5844	6032	6032	6171	5963	5680	6244	6290	6253	6217	5990	6052	5926	6007	6267	6939	5711	6128	5536	5545	5165	5552	5383
NMVOC	1A4bi	14199	14294	14328	14429	14520	15028	15736	15785	16269	15582	15564	17457	17936	18093	18198	18270	18781	18888	20587	21714	24459	20951	22604	20736	21006	20282	22150	21792
NMVOC	1B2aiv	6600	5400	6510	7231	6478	5000	4565	4745	4876	4913	4748	4590	4085	4379	3956	3196	3809	3852	3559	3369	4867	3482	3841	3778	3064	3016	3309	3026
NMVOC	2D3d	28675	27223	23253	21576	21251	20643	17662	19593	19377	19161	19213	17042	16017	16359	16115	15784	16810	16917	14504	12069	10613	10092	9422	8739	8325	7877	7895	7931
SOx	1A5a	6030	5802	3312	3345	2355	3207	2656	2614	3279	3215	2857	3083	3587	2596	2626	2453	2452	2292	1799	1585	1945	1497	1642	1451	1375	1258	1257	1281
NH3	1A4bi	831	842	844	851	853	889	930	933	962	921	884	992	1021	1031	1038	1017	1047	1057	1171	1235	1348	1153	1244	1141	1155	1102	1200	1176
NH3	2C7c	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2550	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CO	1A2d	29503	25358	22448	26510	29017	28401	26653	28693	29128	29310	29413	26721	27149	26519	28823	23834	26426	23580	19631	14246	17883	17691	18124	19355	19511	17740	18278	19783
CO	1A3dii	22554	23187	23289	23099	22934	23464	23330	23654	24095	24644	23473	23193	23347	22743	22598	22947	23764	24001	19831	19836	21110	16328	17480	18904	19479	19931	19121	19309
CO	1A4bi	114893	116294	116578	117467	117752	122562	128256	128615	132657	126921	121850	136723	140618	142034	142968	140034	144165	145407	160948	169778	185269	158362	170961	156671	158617	151330	164693	161491

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	7541108	6165047	3991076	4221131	3633488	2266111	2549808	2655085	2319559	1914728	2062325	2236269	2101319	3263587	2656844	2121464	2378973	2312662	2648614	2144187	2581283	2553799	2599213	2439894	2115641	2106953	2036387	2024422
Pb	1A1b	2096106	2029604	2195885	2810130	3097033	3035062	3382560	956995	3429360	3243970	3353340	3270797	3722232	3535961	3767424	3532659	3153472	3681294	3744927	3589223	3416781	3674207	3340945	3753335	3785476	3133818	3492974	3255175
Pb	1A2d	6199193	6184953	5377439	5115145	5750233	5305557	4914043	5386076	5348231	5478129	5049884	4567465	5860238	4170206	5104381	5061309	5659092	4663096	4079854	2640362	3414964	3382142	3411724	3382506	3708921	3501368	3533008	4021165
Pb	1A2f	2873152	1998141	2325899	2002794	2071174	2362165	2398164	2748927	2899119	2990336	3045669	3098517	3231079	3018616	3070723	3153785	3149247	3122309	3201364	1671292	2254755	2333420	1846126	1895146	1735202	1539310	1688250	1763165
Pb	1A2gviii	623356	460295	396227	935573	1186758	775379	438983	350494	275132	1443788	279482	955376	269660	277948	272816	250793	250880	245723	238429	229877	283965	248186	234055	240250	185087	167954	192697	205915
Pb	1A3bi	166003032	140003030	94003029	37002853	422922	2884	2785	2863	2825	2810	2714	2758	2817	2847	2907	2907	2896	2911	2804	2771	2727	2655	2609	2573	2549	2520	2509	2479
Pb	1A3bvi	6207656	6069577	6034352	5978356	5965125	6041514	6083831	6211172	6355627	5662024	4854884	4014173	3159394	2265740	1367188	427473	430863	417731	415771	410974	414262	414635	410681	415167	420684	421115	424667	421076
Pb	1A4bi	811950	666400	776750	654100	985650	541100	558250	547950	554750	524950	508150	557350	556300	557120	558620	557870	572120	572720	597005	625615	695685	584640	627550	572740	576370	543720	585950	568610
Pb	1A5a	261944	346435	143807	173344	140944	189655	217611	203194	215465	457809	216736	288930	493404	413998	507150	508493	415358	357663	435650	502691	548346	599974	663993	575603	637734	621932	757607	758404
Pb	2C1	34463226	16209473	30744363	32831303	40613400	47814170	23703730	5433394	10142714	8211759	7974043	7581211	7675760	4552150	5523760	2503460	5386030	2675060	1278880	2103340	3916490	2616730	400090	271820	494780	261730	331550	364510
Pb	2C7c	80081000	45130700	9048000	6158200	3140600	566800	1970800	3957900	2418532	1066244	342322	797806	643630	318300	1048350	892790	718800	632730	349290	404360	424090	624720	341980	464620	783180	444690	476970	422256
Pb	2G	310273	355575	736359	815431	1349291	1111409	634236	1018465	892001	1766707	1073962	1111823	1399112	1197770	1353671	1457545	1700462	1969688	1827946	1227780	1334072	1110914	1452870	1066049	1155724	1173281	1181068	1021338
Cd	1A1b	47675	46194	49987	63965	70311	68854	76966	21658	77570	72613	73576	73292	83667	79298	84702	79437	71757	83800	85242	81682	77739	83613	76062	91276	92643	77789	87590	74101
Cd	1A2d	352554	342799	314266	324939	372887	341154	315741	355200	351676	358880	473269	439570	365974	323790	388644	349984	394342	315613	269235	171820	238806	218419	224603	259797	247088	273831	273566	308808
Cd	1A4bi	117905	116228	119123	117152	125163	119346	124681	124745	128493	122707	119739	134135	137646	139015	139947	140276	144479	145826	159797	168547	187326	159818	172545	158026	159956	150852	164040	160576
Cd	2A3	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	180000	240000	140000	160000	260010	160010	31429
Cd	2C1	390235	222028	521680	666126	899140	997940	499700	51778	104558	63562	124535	127149	125420	60360	93400	98600	121250	42160	24890	62350	150340	132440	22170	19590	18810	21640	8500	5456
Cd	2C6	850040	850026	750003	760004	39004	70004	120001	102000	110000	150000	93000	87180	56860	63380	100100	104000	107000	105300	77500	46400	53600	63000	23540	20300	22700	24240	13630	13260
Cd	2C7c	4203000	1601450	1000000	900100	600000	20000	229100	326150	425420	269230	63481	400510	101500	111630	251910	141490	71000	50050	61920	57780	60990	55010	36090	13470	4400	1880	15030	10060
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6669986	3795431	3311114	3372205	2699925	2125247	1904956	1527658	1687570	1525900	1408261	1739032	1371207	1321454	1608097	1455436	1422146	1256687	1212106	1159886	1290322	1224615	1174150	1079272	919083	890236	938086	955890
Hg	1A2f	16961	16914	28184	24341	21770	33200	20204	13352	23674	14186	17288	16222	18338	15750	45512	34062	70201	25982	22529	35385	44743	25541	28026	21876	21195	23075	19489	26929
Hg	1A4bi	21260	20314	20527	20413	21902	20910	21877	21838	22477	21463	20883	23382	23974	24219	24353	24387	25087	25308	27245	28680	31887	27092	29201	26717	27012	25477	27683	27087
Hg	2C1	5000	3900	4000	5000	6000	6000	5000	16000	68700	40000	43120	57960	41540	147090	163340	345500	409320	329010	297630	245920	303130	254620	207520	159020	167020	121320	118120	91340
Hg	2C6						70000	70000	100000	10000	10000	900	500	270	2500	3200	5500	5000	7000	6600	6460	2430	2910	1150	1280	1850	860	940	700
Hg	2C7a	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	6500	10	26700	10	10	9	8	7	5	6	5	3	3	3	3	3	4
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1100174	943941	906310	782649	824325	820544	884888	820083	708420	647790	612428	684412	672137	818708	752100	887767	1030177	867197	816784	751958	881197	747042	736201	755760	701627	615390	586237	578899

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	1338	1409	1299	1549	1881	1880	2180	2128	1960	1928	1836	2437	2724	3292	3152	2825	3400	3269	5681	2936	3677	3062	3826	3903	3848	3728	4556	3391
DIOX	1A2gviii	399	1758	530	297	219	274	221	320	270	255	923	281	273	231	241	211	390	236	236	233	218	223	322	730	632	825	618	537
DIOX	1A4bi	795	799	798	806	806	840	879	880	908	868	847	950	976	986	992	993	1022	1031	1127	1188	1320	1125	1215	1112	1125	1061	1154	1129
DIOX	2C1	4552	4098	4440	4586	4902	5060	3073	3224	3251	3258	3273	3242	3222	1318	1317	1328	901	891	841	391	2871	1011	1440	1300	1570	540	790	557
DIOX	2C3	526	485	599	658	678	738	739	841	892	951	954	754	616	520	542	445	477	504	547	60	494	493	445	200	460	451	10	885
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	18070	18816	17863	18397	18723	19294	17657	17837	17995	18131	18616	15616	15735	14205	14363	13910	14516	14271	16973	12200	16419	14157	15021	15049	16125	14409	15235	13402
HCB	1A4bi	188705	188556	192339	190456	199729	195765	204569	204873	211176	201730	196980	220834	226842	229155	230755	231355	238355	240657	264684	279299	310398	265070	286284	262255	265540	250420	272421	266776
HCB	2B10a	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	8190000	2480000	460000	16700000	23010000	26600000	30700000	10300000	20000000	1500000	18800000	1960000	10200000	13970000	8930000	52000000	25500000
PCB	1A4bi	2180791	2209430	2214873	2232166	2237346	2330828	2438876	2444863	2522901	2411832	2354617	2643392	2720123	2749442	2768574	2775526	2859464	2888087	3174448	3349610	3722746	3179015	3433433	3145101	3184715	3003373	3267889	3200306