Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FI Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A4bi	6153	6042	6070	6013	5777	5844	6032	6032	6171	5963	5680	6244	6290	6253	6217	5990	6052	5926	6007	6267	6939	5711	6128	5536	5545	5165	5552
NMVOC	1A4bi	14199	14294	14328	14429	14520	15028	15736	15785	16269	15582	14789	16589	17049	17210	17314	17339	17839	17972	19642	20716	23009	18282	19732	18082	18309	17284	18834
SOx	1A2b	8098	4355	3983	4081	3904	2483	3337	3083	3156	3542	2670	722	3403	3103	2979	2972	3481	3609	3886	3025	3443	3086	3589	2504	3021	3048	3047
SOx	2B10a	13894	11392	9291	9295	9195	8464	7458	7046	7582	7456	6560	14474	5982	5407	3198	5537	6639	6448	6261	2827	2647	3662	2085	2193	2118	2196	1737
NH3	2C7c	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2550	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CO	1A2d	29503	25358	22448	26510	29017	28401	26653	28693	29128	29310	29413	26721	27149	26519	28823	23834	26426	23580	19631	14246	17883	17691	18124	19355	19511	17740	18278
CO	1A3dii	22554	23187	23289	23099	22934	23464	23330	23654	24095	24644	23473	23193	23347	22743	22598	22947	23764	24001	19831	19836	21110	16328	17480	18904	19479	19796	19127
CO	1A4bi	83085	84066	84272	84906	85112	88555	92721	93038	95915	91860	87585	98274	101046	102018	102664	102851	105853	106692	117299	123743	137427	111953	120857	110765	112162	105867	115317

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A4bi	8311	9314	9566	9660	9717	9723	10002	10083	11098	11695	12992	10323	11136	10196	10313	9725	10569
PM10	1A4bi	8638	9677	9937	10032	10090	10092	10380	10460	11501	12118	13462	10695	11536	10560	10680	10070	10940
PM10	3Dc	1688	1670	1753	1742	1615	1698	1648	1627	1716	1620	1366	1502	1490	1589	1595	1464	1441
TSP	1A4bi	9030	10115	10385	10484	10543	10543	10843	10925	12007	12650	14053	11164	12042	11022	11146	10509	11415
TSP	3Dc	1688	1670	1753	1742	1615	1698	1648	1627	1716	1620	1366	1502	1490	1589	1595	1464	1441
BC	1A4bi	2518	2824	2902	2930	2948	2950	3036	3059	3339	3522	3913	3096	3342	3061	3099	2923	3182
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	7557	7705	7584	7313	7036	6501	6257	6084	6082	5918	6281	5295	5430	4991	4881	4517	4697

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	7480358	6105647	3939326	4173431	3586688	2222461	2510208	2625835	2301109	1906628	2062325	2236269	2101319	3263587	2656844	2121464	2378973	2312662	2648614	2144187	2581283	2553799	2599213	2439894	2115641	2106953	2036387
Pb	1A1b	2096106	2029604	2195885	2810130	3097033	3035062	3382560	956995	3429360	3243970	3353340	3270797	3722232	3535961	3767424	3532659	3153472	3681294	3744927	3589223	3416781	3674207	3340945	3753335	3785476	3133818	3492974
Pb	1A2d	6199193	6184953	5377439	5115145	5750233	5305557	4914043	5386076	5348231	5478129	5049884	4567465	5860238	4170206	5104381	5061309	5659092	4663096	4079854	2640362	3414964	3382142	3411724	3382506	3708921	3501368	3533008
Pb	1A2f	2868152	1998141	2325899	2002794	2071174	2362165	2396164	2746927	2825219	2912536	3032369	3085017	3229079	3010646	3063153	3152385	3146247	3117609	3196864	1668692	2250955	2328120	1841356	1888006	1727002	1530690	1678880
Pb	1A2gviii	623356	460295	396227	935573	1186758	775379	438983	350494	275132	1443788	279482	955376	269660	277948	272816	250793	250880	245723	238429	229877	283965	248186	234055	240250	185087	167954	192697
Pb	1A3bvi	10833975	10549657	10503419	10500304	10466706	10584853	10735286	11069629	11329377	10078981	8589521	7149495	5635560	4039961	2382722	643708	650336	664394	662641	625686	606200	614535	581790	576065	554226	529105	535428
Pb	1A4bi	811950	666400	776750	654100	985650	541100	558250	547950	554750	524950	508150	557350	556300	557120	558620	557870	572120	572720	597005	625615	695685	584640	627550	572740	576370	543720	585950
Pb	1A5a	261944	346435	143807	173344	140944	189655	217611	203194	215465	457809	216736	288930	493404	413998	507150	508493	415358	357663	435650	502691	548346	599974	663993	575603	637734	621932	757607
Pb	2C1	34463226	16209473	30744363	32831303	40613400	47814170	23703730	5433394	10142714	8211759	7974043	7581211	7675760	4552150	5523760	2503460	5386030	2675060	1278880	2103340	3916490	2616730	400090	271820	494780	261730	331550
Pb	2C7c	80081000	45196700	9064000	6171200	3140600	566800	1970800	3978130	2420472	1069914	342872	97996	649620	319600	1050360	893110	720390	632890	350420	404830	424610	625090	342480	465430	783200	445340	479190
Pb	2G	310273	355575	736359	815431	1349291	1111409	634236	1018465	892001	1766707	1073962	1111823	1399112	1197770	1353671	1457545	1700462	1969688	1827946	1227780	1334072	1110914	1452870	1066049	1155724	1173281	1181068
Cd	1A1b	47675	46194	49987	63965	70311	68854	76966	21658	77570	72613	73576	73292	83667	79298	84702	79437	71757	83800	85242	81682	77739	83613	76062	91276	92643	77789	87590
Cd	1A2d	352554	342799	314266	324939	372887	341154	315741	355200	351676	358880	473269	439570	365974	323790	388644	349984	394342	315613	269235	171820	238806	218419	224603	259797	247088	273831	273566
Cd	1A4bi	117905	116228	119123	117152	125163	119346	124681	124745	128493	122707	119739	134135	137646	139015	139947	140276	144479	145826	159797	168547	187326	159818	172545	158026	159956	150852	164040
Cd	2C1	390235	222028	521680	666126	899140	997940	499700	51778	104558	63562	124535	127149	125420	60360	93400	98600	121250	42160	24890	62350	150340	132440	22170	19590	18810	21640	8500
Cd	2C6	850040	850026	750003	760004	39004	70004	120001	102000	110000	150000	93000	87180	56860	63380	100100	104000	107000	105300	77500	46400	53600	63000	23540	20300	22700	24240	13630
Cd	2C7c	4203000	1624450	1002200	902100	600000	20000	229100	326740	425760	271070	63531	550	101570	112350	252580	141650	71120	50060	61930	57800	61000	55040	36240	13620	4410	1880	15080
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6490962	3638574	3155803	3215854	2544655	1969889	1749841	1375209	1536617	1376635	1262897	1597586	1224986	1178025	1465489	1313196	1280272	1115918	1250352	1196243	1328334	1263356	1212009	1117485	925430	927393	976183
Hg	1A2f	16961	16914	28184	24341	21770	33200	20204	13352	23674	14186	17288	16222	18338	15750	45512	33662	69701	25582	19929	34785	42943	23141	25816	21006	20225	22065	18309
Hg	1A4bi	21260	20314	20527	20413	21902	20910	21877	21838	22477	21463	20883	23382	23974	24219	24353	24387	25087	25308	27245	28680	31887	27092	29201	26717	27012	25477	27683
Hg	2C1	5000	3900	4000	5000	6000	6000	5000	16000	68700	40000	43120	57960	41540	147090	163340	345500	409320	329010	297630	241020	303130	254620	207520	159020	167020	121320	118120
Hg	2C6						70000	70000	100000	10000	10000	900	500	270	2500	3200	5500	5000	7000	6600	6460	2430	2910	1150	1280	1850	860	940
Hg	2C7a												6500		26700	10
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1096255	940006	902464	778822	820491	816780	881197	816648	705142	644730	609676	688893	676068	822876	756245	891978	1034445	871576	821161	762878	885656	751562	740723	759898	705982	619276	590774

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	1309	1381	1275	1527	1859	1860	2161	2114	1951	1924	1836	2437	2724	3292	3152	2825	3400	3269	5681	2936	3677	3062	3826	3903	3848	3728	4556
DIOX	1A2gviii	399	1758	530	297	219	274	221	320	270	255	923	281	273	231	241	211	390	236	236	233	218	223	322	730	632	825	618
DIOX	1A4bi	780	784	784	791	792	825	863	865	892	853	832	933	959	969	975	976	1005	1013	1104	1164	1294	1104	1192	1091	1104	1041	1132
DIOX	2C1	4552	4098	4440	4586	4902	5060	3073	3224	3251	3258	3273	3242	3222	1318	1317	1328	901	891	841	391	2871	1011	1440	1300	1570	540	790
HCB	1A4bi	188705	188556	192339	190456	199729	195765	204569	204873	211176	201730	196980	220834	226842	229155	230755	231355	238355	240657	264684	279299	310398	265070	286284	262255	265540	250420	272421
HCB	2B10a	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	8190000	2480000	460000	16700000	23010000	26600000	30700000	10300000	20000000	1500000	18800000	1960000	10200000	13970000	8930000	52000000
PCB	1A4bi	2180791	2209430	2214873	2232166	2237346	2330828	2438876	2444863	2522901	2411832	2354617	2643392	2720123	2749442	2768574	2775526	2859464	2888087	3174448	3349610	3722746	3179015	3433433	3145101	3184715	3003373	3267889