Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EU28 Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	6B	1452267	1427584	1425635	1407062	1490775	1511777	1372678	1515918	1419617	1547740	1480237	1448327	1411049	1790559	1462398	1562589	1684816	1391246	1391179	1535032	1437765	1533590	1479768	1496429	1518270	1603829	1555414
SOx	1A2a	592271	526170	460237	444138	435860	447466	404179	384595	313408	259841	304265	235502	216043	210243	217393	199882	200620	191618	174220	111912	128131	156492	126555	113560	122411	118121	105304
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	25078239	22842321	20849018	19736248	18251550	16585852	15319432	13927483	12669885	10999478	10035135	9593448	9077815	8679194	8109184	7677256	7433154	7045737	5411991	4496042	4201326	4104894	3702210	3241298	2967411	2801773	2378184

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2a	335304413	315346886	292615122	270501878	286799666	280286445	263023751	216638663	183350656	171884667	179529919	171770828	162582033	176170023	172453804	173919105	175152803	163241428	146829016	92688246	125272094	126272848	118250983	112396218	123039803	110894274	105008930
Cd	1A2a	10432294	9553721	8957408	9358335	9816131	9742441	9172380	9066171	7896387	7271817	7575682	6804811	6569505	6880087	6836382	6121916	5889316	6015736	5527240	3376634	4083357	4376543	4228837	4006737	4383569	4089802	4090197
Cd	1A2c	1144708	1190656	1085438	1366877	1077360	3292944	3320966	2938781	2646980	2216724	2169835	2112002	1918019	1340284	1315291	1352891	1289397	1167385	2483648	2278924	3073428	1865451	1778854	1707321	1669454	1560738	2493453
Cd	1A2gviii	7590814	6573079	4802611	3874654	4482659	3446184	2529078	2346989	2383587	2009604	1461988	1480345	1515735	1737110	1696203	1722636	1593594	1645818	1519179	1505539	1660729	1635976	1575615	1555090	1655893	2012936	2078172
Cd	2A3	8388420	9182196	10010607	8028575	6436395	9980180	9340243	10667277	8056634	6888176	7309412	7378994	5224957	5923658	6784276	5899814	5629463	1236638	1401871	1390116	1333874	1399676	1469942	1366601	1219324	1206704	1261731
Cd	2C7a	8025996	8033221	8542894	8815139	9024971	7877252	9148964	7874850	7654382	7489414	7941793	6355371	6652330	5610992	5156905	4342009	5444390	5373312	5262390	4807397	6492644	6452754	6111225	6140961	6152133	6314950	6368297
Cd	2C7c	9182388	5924372	6128027	6210600	3565830	3441094	2301090	3034909	1482780	1210807	600532	710576	586693	593762	661063	622578	452414	373455	327207	229471	250184	254457	261286	205752	245469	221997	189054
Cd	2G	4669488	4824264	4803503	4888442	4939958	4849527	5243398	5191478	5120734	5829099	3864232	4518669	4104932	4105481	3948815	3601157	3580013	3444772	3324272	3556256	3429502	3197440	3324283	3074680	2901027	2960740	2933799
Cd	3F	16835337	13816858	14569800	15895651	14287755	13755016	13868396	13105225	12959766	12706338	6212742	1699264	1677917	1548711	1337206	1243613	1108255	1388436	1174708	1198506	1177175	1194793	1207353	1179603	1205895	1171796	1056768
Cd	5C1a	10166365	10138383	9670312	3304782	2698494	2228297	1526809	1071453	880529	653991	596455	430385	367574	272381	205633	187962	147286	161118	161698	141714	131520	124634	122102	163222	100041	157300	1449107
Hg	1A1c	6969120	5289030	3211144	2484382	2041216	1523726	1416472	1238303	1108657	1009974	910319	867235	726546	852966	774612	670622	650815	691889	588068	477557	530589	552147	393923	355461	330686	329308	330304
Hg	1A2a	7145241	6607024	5966339	5564952	5435961	5606451	5417989	5378177	5324058	5147227	5866955	4941694	4354571	3859316	4369416	4163881	4861650	4445568	4345057	1894218	2390736	2538999	2340489	2303864	2442061	2263669	2168737
Hg	1A2gviii	7381048	4884066	3831753	2773306	2309669	2349943	1965083	1988014	1731952	1684292	1534651	1401565	1437024	1383780	1156042	1268566	1254873	1189890	1293022	1173778	1379204	1247877	1337942	1601733	1510797	1402070	1196299
Hg	1A4ai	2626814	2776807	2268758	2121482	1834087	1736040	1637878	1590888	1450519	1496694	1544041	1677081	1617530	1779497	2263479	2334423	2325157	3079113	3095193	3007707	2747068	2309800	2525999	2685841	2753278	2867056	3111451
Hg	1B2d	3396904	3355195	3647080	3865818	3615459	3638703	3986144	4137498	4465656	4674493	4993072	4795103	4954959	5666591	2741390	2179276	2555658	1682353	1665110	1225507	1327957	1257059	2467840	1419496	2135441	1060680	397440
Hg	2C7a	12201769	8198029	4194961	3301822	2409042	133314	3913181	4259543	3646828	282643	91448	78510	30356	48367	29511	17585	20718	19276	22233	35384	40725	40456	21855	20027	19088	22196	22604
Hg	2C7c	5452816	4717452	5060290	4828906	4081417	3466866	2934742	2301569	1738832	1306336	951603	895224	839358	847766	736847	679625	587570	486357	462143	284089	330376	361524	340594	337151	302670	273608	299990
Hg	5C1a	10790269	10206638	9472516	3357303	2861147	2550491	2306282	1484803	908728	689593	658975	391546	380635	213666	136332	147777	131715	116641	98579	91772	86510	78456	67016	93842	49518	71808	540525
Hg	5C1biii	4202072	3959381	3748071	3610449	3363044	3478271	3321397	3406681	2777414	2599945	2344941	2078111	2062528	2300178	1642062	3542930	1462179	1597347	2431999	1955768	2439370	1218346	969070	712936	1194058	949439	1372895

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1B2aiv	82911	73858	77224	64535	80577	85476	103086	104512	106265	92351	111432	109959	106553	109825	106869	106830	108156	109851	103006	98186	110978	94493	117361	113867	118696	124280	132735
DIOX	2C1	753536	700859	648172	631213	634178	636037	584901	598784	572089	452276	444077	383897	357358	354431	374582	361705	364860	340383	322467	228460	283221	274765	259495	231760	238713	241146	231892
DIOX	5C1bi	96099	92896	78490	72518	80913	73324	76316	69851	71895	72366	68512	45752	43644	49631	74070	64901	176604	55531	54984	36249	26215	47918	58708	42972	20502	22772	22765
DIOX	5C1bv	20425	20719	20605	21924	21335	21827	21735	21500	13801	13731	13325	13605	12969	12907	12232	12172	12019	11942	12204	12011	19575	12733	12287	10632577	12399	13322	13227
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	9183277	8874916	8512255	8022804	7485995	7142908	6389401	5952168	5453954	4828979	4415934	3941276	3765146	3732983	3740386	3644002	3559833	3582812	3579131	3677320	3477560	3280278	3219918	13664533	3233531	3076498	2990689
HCB	1A2b	1126041347	1146239652	1172321510	555886326	2850629	3051158	2947427	2854259	2291436	247768	147580	118278	92252	161201	273671	416820	506700	728733	633038	392775	357709	554525	384037	284198	423186	497507	699123
HCB	1A2f	1634999	1591035	1502026	1372365	1445958	1461122	1419504	1431586	1454415	1437341	1457691	1410564	1436578	1438044	1510567	1568393	1614927	1681764	1581804	1292044	1305748	1322978	25348271	103496473	108986179	1151275	1140278
HCB	2B10a	965630672	841313511	653062610	632953664	388712664	342681098	328787482	291376563	315970155	263654017	258553026	210418570	209228114	235876249	162727259	180394252	69880187	83045944	55298382	36899032	5400000	20500000	3060000	11800000	14870000	10230000	52050000
HCB	2C1	20278578	18615454	14474844	14044841	11634871	12810770	11499004	12732696	12927253	13232812	13638195	14203595	12722338	12623060	11822688	11771878	11210864	11251150	11658100	4479411	6944981	23195721	12505398	5314295	5202446	5018807	4951971
HCB	2C3	2493614294	2464029543	2793864289	3325866289	3779706763	3954171236	4007917669	4112746556	4385336644	87364946	99876922	76163032	102162398	116204853	51197947	107483261	123977464	91247905	118267165	96610118	112231206	113846377	130176671	112573713	84310205	88467720	49176329
HCB	3Df	277489461	285317442	191892093	155085324	134590045	131185021	145241174	140063653	108267162	93482939	56162182	32386724	28644021	39102821	49357466	56053016	53275197	42275550	41541947	35899462	36995755	27914932	23486822	16763546	22270053	21046150	23710315
HCB	5C1biv	67602171	67706940	67817362	75243529	83648674	82351949	80211585	76062999	65494922	54826146	45746614	39660899	32793174	27424276	21746216	14417007	14492412	14730788	13797121	4819947	4747475	10055017	15279336	14328177	14251228	13843902	14009552
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	5308709930	5144028821	5179276611	5040249957	4679308035	4824648189	4859171113	4847237440	5073964798	672856338	613300634	522695496	526635631	571578308	425174038	497374221	401648363	365237146	364892298	301864078	300026585	320322541	344445981	393612400	374001264	268787664	278242917
PCB	1A4bi	633546142	720984989	666472341	810796230	739009143	717019482	686309316	607643700	493772164	497756679	408038791	450963844	472345272	461939365	459453048	486273233	526646802	501141680	525234349	529354647	621542803	560948868	579133045	581938956	518071878	513637245	524840179
PCB	2C1	2353113367	1985470579	2520519866	2470939970	2572147934	2543223337	2441873676	2496350029	2269822101	2181909213	2284199440	1049787805	621560658	614230648	643159617	603174276	641809912	646782847	625238508	404186398	490341149	502879626	455031655	438173466	441805325	428205414	401872617
PCB	2C5	677536805	622510404	591734593	547768181	531208756	452234607	304747226	368694616	339183755	282777907	248174927	180081105	122244961	68198676	11160767	11126571	11083262	11153623	29479405	26829242	26859366	26911260	26894865	26847984	26805046	26801694	27687672
PCB	5E	177051314	168217332	165979345	160673896	157831060	165645924	159150824	150487956	142695561	148840719	141204800	149873344	174651363	183532463	146984607	130676583	131788251	108416880	104092280	94441442	81478287	80252774	77950188	72651465	68524514	72403683	69754457