Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EU12 Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A4bi	389368	423151	393712	397446	371341	365065	391415	364004	357847	345701	331113	349069	323710	329045	317657	312290	302150	276749	297251	286425	300823	254240	267233	268391	224601	237122	237587	233156	226983
NOx	3Da1	254038	249090	239726	225469	223014	227309	231609	228990	231225	238167	238823	220968	213407	219225	215869	201698	201394	192779	184259	168073	178603	180165	180692	183648	188298	193229	189699	190855	180905
NMVOC	11C	1858006	1865869	1894334	1923906	1957753	1913595	1906868	1943361	1953738	1969905	1982209	1984827	1992709	2051122	2025943	2047117	2074900	2085891	2072769	2091764	2087294	2112818	2129245	2120469	2141664	2155360	2165991	2190662	2192942
NMVOC	2H2	206556	204142	208918	206651	209129	203705	202729	203600	206937	206465	206403	208270	208640	207110	211662	209967	214150	212766	208148	211763	214687	216588	220089	221634	221537	228878	233730	246586	247080
NMVOC	6B	1447957	1423519	1421510	1402882	1486818	1507459	1368303	1511568	1415179	1543188	1475799	1443498	1406198	1785935	1458207	1558845	1680206	1386290	1386219	1529998	1432465	1528342	1474318	1490556	1512174	1597541	1548953	1610162	1607754
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	16087321	14459799	13409136	12228593	11037906	9777898	8754348	7937353	7457595	6593721	5964376	5662525	5427786	4888611	4654402	4374967	4061636	3813717	2744168	2231326	2000638	1847025	1811607	1599602	1432950	1355643	1162296	1153385	1088278
CO	5C2	395010	370638	391303	354859	327967	272268	436697	496504	419265	403218	463986	523355	442930	573552	477409	422519	499328	498884	474707	524076	537553	556350	393715	627380	433243	538530	533318	505589	503478

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM10	11C	38484	32566	27099	36880	31813	28959	28193	58824	34517	37865	31818	36612	48022	23915	28781	26174	27378	35148	35216

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bii	1064056176	787683824	586977061	507852980	439069288	372922509	316718859	281274936	240988629	185167004	88750754	15185174	1990675	2036200	2000376	1842693	1879517	2082690	1923174	1706400	1577819	1382809	1248953	1274873	1272546	1253697	1224953	1301027	1320051
Pb	2C1	681077799	648103810	604168983	579022787	596055981	594964448	580784869	617375606	544820432	529289048	534755539	490390746	456788374	423188771	414597669	379218751	367337490	338289070	313085174	208628881	252472161	237568716	230531277	220243753	218048445	225331192	212651482	214938415	204345880
Cd	1A1c	4125036	2946662	1571337	999581	546540	157272	142027	114183	106440	99447	95047	87082	87508	94294	98151	94796	95472	93321	95302	84897	88827	91622	60254	59664	44294	28077	27805	27805	27421
Cd	1A2a	3662809	3869285	3614026	3611931	3787565	3922493	3521484	3772943	3771184	3694183	3604509	3384702	3421260	3440508	3220453	3269194	3096284	3196005	3439789	1949702	2607856	2777828	2609183	2354882	2520021	2135054	2393843	2253744	1935558
Cd	1A2b	5532085	6290576	6049239	5771596	5425276	4837519	5037039	5023706	4381917	3826288	4046523	3598336	2076392	999466	998487	908943	847800	649403	678474	516332	636264	511013	448820	409933	394873	344502	333364	361538	352303
Cd	1A2c	704156	796566	772088	696621	627541	557519	538033	512331	535485	299644	348535	340428	264996	247826	243232	266096	229961	213908	1001057	856738	1512269	300019	220668	135474	135242	139723	1032488	125727	130164
Cd	1A2gviii	3928387	3017478	2335585	1977086	1913824	1792627	1723102	1543728	1558393	1237348	1129360	1114868	1087354	1198441	1316868	1328946	1153826	1163741	1099511	1121002	1250126	1214084	1085270	1046382	1198447	1370359	1378828	1574276	1682608
Cd	1A4ai	920941	985502	921148	996405	977641	1054659	1074442	1067091	1041628	1118931	1235411	1467754	1410206	1544163	2028032	2128535	1741850	1396158	1073574	669560	343868	354294	317291	347616	340218	360078	369861	388871	386349
Cd	2C6	3166801	3238651	3223196	3352910	3026028	2991938	2237200	2820730	1512167	1761385	1541189	1285517	1409069	607361	340952	344654	347821	343434	317458	214583	233413	242862	239922	230176	314284	344942	347046	401752	2182760
Cd	2C7a	6962289	7059544	7497511	7819126	7978571	6802954	8140688	7347820	7222431	6876183	6678480	6007579	6108863	5066934	4689249	4042920	5093696	4940749	4955084	4648480	6333064	6486241	6170010	6158912	6079533	6169326	6156355	6362464	6136260
Cd	2C7c	3670406	3492639	4399791	4840361	2807567	3271525	1943391	2553079	921021	903245	515511	570000	423954	424065	343984	409272	290178	214985	211318	120755	163025	155464	168912	160175	163034	177188	153835	131252	150982
Cd	2G	4635274	4792635	4761321	4865167	4976930	4902006	5337466	5220570	5171779	6103978	4051930	4789011	4424112	4478657	4618044	4242072	4188800	4205052	4007734	4129377	3924467	3982136	3616791	3486178	3539653	3586858	3339608	3318650	3307932
Cd	3F	12121876	11960300	9947377	8180957	7365195	6211542	8895280	8428458	9055175	8097219	4218068	2191385	2282792	2113667	1591047	1457475	1211711	1163419	1231991	1210304	1194624	1293726	1268755	1236398	1329829	1335671	1180024	1266153	1256885
Cd	5C2	862290	1018949	963217	930473	897626	832550	1017216	1067105	1010306	1025977	1044218	1092866	1025926	1138861	1181817	1040276	1090806	1069573	1102900	1081214	1108135	1128539	932239	1195844	944151	1113211	1118043	1049790	1035140
Hg	1A1c	7113089	5402170	3302526	2404292	1691663	1150211	1025550	854794	761470	715613	702907	672811	627040	655025	667415	599858	524306	484907	373487	319621	411560	408334	278955	252596	208697	181389	172561	179343	172481
Hg	1A2a	1783832	2246022	1890587	1506841	1751220	1946490	1780368	1717584	1580230	1407118	1456299	1240291	1260006	1276934	1329187	1400005	1511819	1555360	1361718	879125	1281302	1406202	1337883	1144289	1074382	955358	917458	984116	1053074
Hg	1A2b	3928278	4263886	4214323	4176656	4012619	4127510	4271850	4156434	3843863	3240785	3470691	3329691	3518052	973941	930459	890194	855483	866025	1168563	1049450	692018	720434	631641	753944	895490	736786	754484	686578	662245
Hg	1A2gviii	6622544	4177663	3252223	2238821	1802044	1917816	1583841	1651909	1472099	1430660	1227183	1100905	1060187	1061172	947780	977555	973954	929547	1012693	956408	1139103	987897	1036195	1318023	1236087	1100395	1080820	993776	921665
Hg	1A4ai	1662697	1748113	1384013	1298767	1113464	1150880	1140057	1171234	1072780	1141745	1210632	1352828	1290841	1439297	1928809	2024060	1712013	1440756	1130762	834678	556215	603062	554760	557128	498407	484261	474240	478831	450773
Hg	1A4bi	3640402	3857111	2925102	2859602	2657283	2429968	2419303	2183264	2067745	2025541	1846244	1915590	1669097	1590829	1474743	1479561	1466264	1486421	1570242	1451229	1590770	1532737	1414960	1410438	1199792	1290192	1240720	1247347	1174191
Hg	1B2d	3396904	3355195	3647080	3865818	3615459	3638703	3986144	4137498	4465656	4674493	4993072	4795103	4954959	5666591	2741390	2179276	2555658	1682353	1665110	1225507	1327957	1257059	2467840	1419496	2135441	1060680	471974	936399	805522
Hg	2A1	1272150	1184094	1230422	1229506	1283353	1176013	1134528	1180572	1209872	1235436	1204064	1107852	1161448	1256598	1455393	1085332	1108109	1271904	1214987	1237240	902980	956556	929397	876410	914943	785715	950299	721831	776994
Hg	2C6	3297662	3406925	3436758	3594365	3289728	3327086	2788783	2268993	1755803	690865	1107769	1136026	652921	489463	438165	415100	415191	403896	369707	357501	360209	364753	363490	361985	363755	366910	368613	369774	368102
Hg	2C7c	5244622	4539926	4919605	4759192	4036786	3412328	2828204	2224002	1666516	1105050	837159	797048	755883	772648	661265	634934	558332	421808	431162	239981	300457	335282	314034	309026	265607	237213	303457	302489	305518
Hg	5C1bv	676087	716830	749411	816266	826500	896162	950621	993124	1026747	1080275	1131623	1161628	1226912	1258893	1265295	1319577	1350990	1381780	1436533	1331382	1263581	1018616	982375	938629	971338	1022522	994301	998617	996612

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A3bi	222007	205005	195909	183645	170169	156414	149895	142073	127973	109835	80475	79958	80176	78985	79688	78226	79019	79507	79083	77764	74217	68683	61119	57345	53989	50104	46364	42178	37455
DIOX	5C1biii	639911	621891	608048	595255	574448	582322	624121	694358	516613	446636	305978	142623	124397	101914	77208	4844	418	1307	1642	1433	1852	1021	725	651	523	402	652	620	2223
DIOX	5E	173248	169215	171579	172699	171731	180661	179760	168215	159127	167034	162356	163267	166866	177868	153142	152525	153690	150113	144989	135645	121763	127816	124413	118833	116303	122643	123122	121178	122484
HCB	1A2b	1126077258	1146240677	1172269188	555959832	2910080	3126129	3072640	2946868	2403201	331925	235569	268980	261973	257163	241943	241444	246627	242364	254165	236209	211237	210615	176618	6278	3703	3715	3063	2793	3014
HCB	2A1	8672400	8765750	9376430	9291320	9622780	9271950	8579370	9040050	9001430	8864320	9341600	8929870	8371980	7826170	7734410	8368340	8708740	8650670	8369240	7597110	7111150	6042740	6000880	2501920	2851140	936330	547890	29320980	1254340
HCB	2B10a	920370672	796953511	608882610	588953664	344712664	298681098	284787482	247376563	271970155	219654017	220553026	198128570	200048114	223016249	144527259	154984252	40180187	48745944	43698382	9299032
HCB	2C1	12411076	11449968	10110104	10640327	9390285	11294818	9643520	10447521	11472274	11642564	11046749	12089271	9871864	9811013	8893060	8378454	7829385	7710996	7867018	1769769	3100115	19154043	8552798	1192185	1248505	1227700	1101774	2218281	1221892
HCB	2C3	5277414348	5172829540	5472664289	5364966289	5968806763	6048271236	6092017669	6269896556	6857486644	2661699946	2959211922	3190536945	101575224	552457	418494	498811	764197	831336	850144	213419	245691	234817	38941	40416	39042	37759	38587	40955	37683
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	7924039010	7701258223	7748368012	6984159882	6807178747	6852599416	6889260884	6981603077	7529194367	3230057182	3392927789	3581868860	477455234	403567116	318975642	312827157	192977319	188882928	189427095	142259673	131389922	134335355	119457981	93446074	109267653	103948601	114916139	149409853	117706493
PCB	1A1a	473691991	484929386	491819068	492828452	480435240	442058165	404026652	391939554	382336685	382054175	362467635	309865871	254633061	203965405	133793261	140233393	149383295	144594915	144650165	143736359	147776659	143499418	158561228	159282414	149301545	141116982	129424951	123693791	108628208
PCB	2A1	4068928	3930578	4075809	4017759	4212418	4182774	3939852	4086520	4063582	4002110	4201152	3915490	3741973	3619415	3608693	3753474	3880108	3931567	3792076	3380475	71455988	46083759	4453531	3334935	8742492	1968530	3981824	1624045	3513882
PCB	2C1	1037168351	922165556	903933658	897599585	875079997	874818948	779085848	819923120	765801801	591967359	593581320	556685176	509417970	490828213	508316529	472986821	502579939	505959572	496161037	320229655	385640965	390705414	350581274	337015318	337545759	320706015	296148862	306023699	309072021
PCB	2C5	658370061	615649975	589057979	545090258	531202224	452228072	304742012	368689435	339178575	282772726	248169741	180072516	122240518	68196436	11155672	11120320	11078204	11147393	29473407	26822402	26853403	26903410	26890327	26842655	26799132	26795030	26842625	27641453	33789293
PCB	2C6	196560632	235224660	272916753	333594767	355104698	276865523	250294784	210586018	187302030	156151406	123615661	93070133	65825649	33908067	420911	369171	377971	369254	321885	169066	182595	187682	187138	179238	184999	188524	186352	194154	195932
PCB	2K	6791895195	6367869201	5978163943	5636231193	5330766817	4949301713	4692331092	4444605094	4177588434	3969149004	1563506118	1480757617	1393109898	1307810439	1227048146	1169431304	1099846248	994830796	889652191	846040323	739207153	641121102	591443114	468603507	410900971	376175790	347399164	327689143	309951600
PCB	5E	177231358	168397386	166159404	160853962	158011128	165826000	159330909	150643391	142843857	148991350	141205092	149520697	173945774	182473936	145572926	128911962	130170696	106946387	102768843	93264918	81181703	80161879	77675004	72069856	68936531	70985882	68511619	68537969	68251217