Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	16143	17825	19671	19348	20652	22608	24487	26123	27780	30368	32576	33194	31928	33498	37137	39391	41419	45839	46825	44118	46717	50457	49397	49188	51047	54505	60652	65423	69996	74566	25043	28586
NOx	1A3bi	288471	306442	336118	288184	268450	241182	240362	226150	224758	211934	198802	186107	189910	196016	193139	194466	196725	199900	189931	184544	181537	175199	164502	162296	160562	161953	164275	162473	163414	159577	125766	139201
NOx	5C2	34618	30510	33569	29486	26498	20364	38985	45797	36845	34925	42468	49354	39867	54989	42859	37369	46309	46279	43282	49317	50993	53297	34761	61578	39915	51294	50502	47695	65145	46791	57868	57868
NMVOC	2D3a	91054	91246	91527	91789	92010	92194	92371	92569	92839	93259	93970	94962	96736	98500	100001	101838	102561	103681	104473	104423	103928	103372	102464	101141	99894	98870	106494	114179	122155	104859	154116	113729
NMVOC	3B1a	23209	22574	21554	20478	19946	21974	21968	21581	22404	20707	21296	21975	21457	20758	19684	19521	18116	17346	16850	15846	19633	19424	20330	20700	20942	21797	21350	21187	21115	20961	20855	21058
SOx	1A2a	28501	33461	24877	26312	38963	37902	25954	19012	13211	10189	10351	11540	13663	7765	7922	7008	7075	5991	9636	6419	7149	6188	11039	5303	6751	6375	6846	6811	6579	6648	17183	13946
SOx	1A2b	18541	18729	19554	19125	19212	17906	18018	19409	18470	18434	19186	20198	22312	17228	13942	16092	14111	13720	12746	12446	12895	11310	12605	11005	11441	8431	7971	7668	7965	7735	7484	7757
NH3	3B1a	38056	36893	35280	33524	32687	34504	34539	33957	35301	32669	32977	34035	33290	32262	30620	32418	30024	28756	27921	26258	31376	30625	31933	32371	32747	32067	31403	31154	31042	30815	30660	30954
CO	1A2a	130188	135046	120709	123571	126502	90566	81438	57549	47738	75938	99769	99934	98829	87342	95823	96875	92581	97551	95132	72257	89084	86653	74199	81971	95290	97163	91558	97244	90605	89201	57568	85812
CO	5C2	436786	385083	423670	372103	334308	256874	491411	577280	464416	440176	535175	621924	502370	692931	540071	470891	583554	583168	545401	621456	642577	671607	438035	775958	502981	646372	636385	601011	820912	589617	729202	729202

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A1a	10051	9392	10729	9286	9374	9805	8848	9621	4815	3115	2358	3626	4442	4843	5177	5005	3837	4524	3747	2883	2968	3242
PM10	1A1a	22497	20573	24058	20660	20278	19930	17262	17841	7696	4280	3034	4904	6128	6428	6814	6738	5197	6003	4986	3585	3761	4061
TSP	1A1a	35529	31855	37482	31788	31194	29217	24961	25093	10017	5079	3578	5821	7271	7921	8245	8466	6629	7814	6542	4729	5192	5622

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	2860436	2768509	3918091	2225224	2233891	3118410	2371590	5167149	3843512	4500502	4321952	4641226	5645273	3962108	4283042	4440288	3380056	2582683	1929619	1701867	1558802	1714609	2188404	1951561	1862242	2308777	1732491	1734395	1714126	760929	540689	432866
Pb	1A2a	4977080	5398805	3647515	3236139	5806369	6507781	6015148	5522443	4843298	4976485	6356456	6466176	6891648	6695720	7738982	7666755	7769747	8544220	8256403	5437555	6975586	7471504	7207063	6491308	6817116	7227680	7611458	7678298	7716916	7565971	7815225	7740706
Pb	1A2f	18353054	18100757	17426497	16784629	17913069	32399493	33711189	34256372	33452849	31268500	16054062	4526713	4210957	3866637	3416670	2733564	2044758	1410560	1262718	1132856	1155128	1140663	945450	735892	694212	695170	688508	692365	733458	727352	658440	645840
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	5776938	6302116	4722913	4722911	119	131	4455295	5224681	5426164	4512851	4810927	5432180	5646276	5584555	4926628	4519463	4831915	4652769	4192015	4035420	3487197	3215634	2932840	2740738	1708826	2066740	1906676	2232752	2329763	2653973	2211483	2769254
Pb	1A3bii	135233372	78002346	45980750	35953672	32229471	23570213	19767003	16161571	13377680	10060836	6441012	3268771	2447283	2457965	2312822	1980333	2022081	2184795	1879005	1629148	1594316	1296471	1223383	1305912	1235359	1178317	1132117	1215660	1247794	1356803	896878	1301363
Pb	1A3biv	128276676	89893808	48941029	42664382	44014540	31332880	21315476	18014412	14821024	13198233	8877861	3631263	2830196	3400069	3590270	3413742	3969915	4351156	4492165	4776305	4490862	773364	679830	1576223	1800529	95	80	69	232997	1776034	1278491	1526071
Pb	2C1	36143502	36779021	34249085	35118145	35758225	29730990	27149247	25213420	24858988	30826152	36930945	37801805	37593180	36772800	39322179	37683552	39471768	41171315	39944570	31775255	37327358	35782111	32477150	34717433	37476512	42111274	37306656	33690688	34818090	33357772	23880078	33065612
Pb	2C7a	2875882	2973832	2804972	2806268	2867276	2617866	4356552	5101996	4943134	4889342	4867182	4520180	4772360	4663960	3763850	4555010	4333366	4242500	4510078	4351803	4234000	3302800	2021259	1261000	1004000	609000	833419	510719	663000	557000	444909	550000
Pb	5C1biv	855606	1016887	1157439	1328732	1920428	1991728	2014300	1821716	1995832	2015055	3487825	2745516	3447328	3842248	1962826	1990302	2057096	4603564	4536632	3085612	3164144	3121954	3764998	2481826	2667650	2783622	2620770	2604892	2555316	2272063	2362900	2362347
Pb	5C2	4594610	4037284	4444097	3906480	3519444	2709280	5220378	6131889	4935551	4682254	5700082	6626730	5352857	7383326	5754571	5017448	6217895	6213784	5811367	6621749	6846795	7156115	4667355	8268005	5359370	6887237	6780817	6403902	8746991	6282497	7769801	7769801
Cd	1A1a	1237219	1581996	2399201	1137685	1082328	1650880	1086250	1009879	1534446	2465756	2233030	2543213	3199231	1892496	1892646	2119835	1508493	890592	723805	545467	530153	637435	648457	491529	474550	481506	509183	497926	468678	298699	208099	365145
Cd	1A2e	8359	8337	8062	7911	10755	13330	7545	7004	5982	141468	116979	120352	148216	160914	159647	158174	165150	149716	186642	140095	108762	133995	146664	96994	58809	94925	199857	224900	228564	268136	255294	232670
Cd	1A2f	14798370	13122586	10883338	9618932	10161113	11057987	9971909	9605039	9032139	7976130	5607986	4315782	4040146	3709689	3320453	2242288	1293014	332936	168515	136139	133085	128787	111192	96533	81771	101044	87030	90947	95298	96835	89472	95855
Cd	1A2gviii	675962	517546	342701	363275	350696	343625	355272	278239	394819	251183	242182	257461	280577	339953	339086	339327	249512	284712	300337	238561	199042	236246	249737	180640	108031	193488	234744	267240	265721	326271	297444	280230
Cd	1A4bi	1154100	1169449	1183002	1174084	1172248	1098606	1097872	1097682	1093510	1086619	1086947	1091867	1092115	1090165	1104773	1107851	1109821	1110500	1120863	1328002	1334886	1332913	1350040	1353442	1361082	1349788	976438	975374	977331	983238	983158	985174
Cd	2C1	1042947	1040317	1021805	1041023	1092188	1170544	1064554	1275789	1394804	1478479	1649849	1724422	1724489	1752264	1879545	1764282	1881235	1932460	1859845	1486670	1694378	1560957	1399008	1427674	1464210	1522118	1358961	1384810	1392143	1348098	1101365	1370350
Cd	2C7a	180840	161823	152636	152708	152181	146464	224255	263269	247119	240297	241005	215430	225590	221220	186290	215500	210244	207440	230098	94100	142700	312910	209500	132200	97000	56000	67300	81800	62000	45000	36183	46000
Cd	2G	103289	103272	103248	103223	103193	103158	110407	44115	73059	233278	113620	216168	221386	298700	542534	550331	500656	609979	563733	667688	411456	696915	260115	431290	431039	381884	331149	346523	396513	369606	316546	300851
Cd	3F	5278499	5295545	4779087	4681735	4036753	3258774	4859699	4533999	4830058	4535619	2066274	686732	752204	753078	457333	411064	199887	165502	102268	101607	129262	230141	187595	151531	295466	300884	207462	244786	291791	260499	238922	238922
Cd	5C1biv	273794	325404	370381	425194	614537	637353	644576	582949	638666	644818	1116104	878565	1103145	1229519	628104	636897	658271	1473141	1451722	987396	1012526	999025	1204799	794184	853648	890759	838646	833565	817701	727060	756128	755951
Cd	5C2	480034	421806	464309	408140	367703	283059	545413	640645	515655	489191	595531	692345	559254	771392	601224	524211	649631	649201	607158	691825	715337	747654	487634	863821	559934	719562	708444	669064	913865	656380	811770	811770
Hg	1A1a	3378737	3677118	4943002	3643320	3507618	4778900	2202014	2287059	2940241	3685280	3555905	3833219	4622314	3346711	3293499	3471585	2715960	2255406	1667993	1362113	1172453	1494271	1874243	1433147	1489073	1645573	1775514	1646435	1617726	628266	383789	285164
Hg	1A2a	28189	88226	16075	12751	142565	170496	117353	49570	18717	2827	1861	6379	22235	5869	12637	3108	2072	1904	2561	8836	3104	2524	56597	1442	10632	5509	3118	2839	3150	6729	142832	93517
Hg	1A2f	1488664	1516586	1530596	1507867	1666745	2954755	3135208	3221757	3248127	3124592	1904092	899054	885591	844316	811664	772082	772425	571897	488063	383712	401415	369343	352438	307995	379405	423538	431753	431095	443444	421235	377311	405591
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593	215729	256787
Hg	2C1	837238	845041	816408	843452	878188	825745	774089	821168	854088	895699	993251	1039531	1039973	1060205	1136513	1081528	1153721	1183169	1138034	910969	1033750	949794	849322	863148	880298	907877	810812	840147	842381	816609	674954	832047
Hg	3F	1022715	1020172	885814	901000	771360	614551	943488	870464	944752	851394	380052	123652	137464	137556	72758	65397	31800	26330	16270	16165	20564	36613	29845	24107	47006	47868	33005	38943	46421	41443	38010	38010
Hg	5C1a	662494	444374	459494	363409	370124	147792	152813	28448	30918	41952	41600	41700	41650

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	2C1	69814	71329	66633	68963	70437	56118	52867	45953	43562	51611	60667	62457	62202	61483	65829	63003	66374	68905	66752	53075	61978	58712	53155	56156	59827	66026	58615	54396	55830	53629	39740	53499
DIOX	5C2	68576	60258	66330	58306	52529	40437	77916	91521	73665	69884	85076	98906	79893	110199	85889	74887	92804	92743	86737	98832	102191	106808	69662	123403	79991	102795	101206	95581	130552	93769	115967	115967
HCB	1A2gviii	258567	198356	131118	137019	132158	131550	135898	106378	150459	94750	91294	97343	106093	128694	128930	129307	94980	108011	115242	91980	76801	91172	96298	69622	41331	74043	89935	102483	101885	125173	114152	107586
HCB	3Df	53564096	50435319	47603438	49075944	56192673	55954037	67500631	76259522	80921343	84382652	13448270	13819781	14213486	12431395	13105479	2503741	2571114	2614901	2880491	2527706	10525021	11011397	9702725	6208979	10071341	8570320	10319479	10432479	11052647	11032595	6723230	44653
PCB	2K	2157342588	2162478149	2167320083	2171941113	2174003083	2178059282	2183829322	2189735326	2195739199	2163518227	2016831502	1861210700	1736762761	1630171540	1541133383	1404585749	1267840185	1131270064	941692535	823753905	687399981	649794572	614207153	620589678	599701404	556570996	544966405	520101248	487820544	459517514	416553312	415741261
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2185299259	2195228871	2201610111	2204640787	2210728610	2220712268	2222899051	2222580114	2229347872	2197220412	2053275929	1899474277	1775852045	1670232859	1582989023	1444276967	1310238402	1174536430	983177122	858148309	725207477	684216679	646338963	651096344	630209503	586948952	572486988	549886555	517579251	488025446	443356073	450952983
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2185299259	2195228871	2201610111	2204640787	2210728610	2220712268	2222899051	2222580114	2229347872	2197220412	2053275929	1899474277	1775852045	1670232859	1582989023	1444276967	1310238402	1174536430	983177122	858148309	725207477	684216679	646338963	651096344	630209503	586948952	572486988	549886555	517579251	488025446	443356073	450952983
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2185299259	2195228871	2201610111	2204640787	2210728610	2220712268	2222899051	2222580114	2229347872	2197220412	2053275929	1899474277	1775852045	1670232859	1582989023	1444276967	1310238402	1174536430	983177122	858148309	725207477	684216679	646338963	651096344	630209503	586948952	572486988	549886555	517579251	488025446	443356073	450952983