Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A3bi	288415	306361	336031	288140	268409	241128	240333	226107	224705	211893	198746	186023	189801	195945	193017	194341	196631	199776	189812	184484	181449	175750	165355	163496	163459	164622	166576	166289	168095	166798	130797
NOx	1A3dii	86143	91146	90698	92194	88411	84481	82705	62796	66764	60718	50259	52524	53227	60940	56680	53641	58520	51207	43515	35874	31269	24686	26117	14582	10027	13527	20878	36403	37643	40789	29284
NOx	5C2	34618	30510	33569	29486	26498	20364	38985	45797	36845	34925	42468	49354	39867	54989	42859	37369	46309	46279	43282	49317	50993	53297	34761	61578	39915	51294	50502	47695	65145	46791	46791
NMVOC	2D3a	67250	66388	65584	64761	63903	63016	62120	61234	60390	59637	59056	58634	58664	58649	58441	58394	58166	58142	57909	49781	49840	49873	49736	49396	45234	41189	47397	53533	57872	52290	61105
NMVOC	3B1a	26981	26176	24951	23666	23026	24955	24917	24437	25336	23396	23738	24455	23838	23034	21809	21457	19879	19005	18432	17307	20979	20739	21703	22093	22351	23234	22758	22583	22506	22343	22229
SOx	1A2b	18541	18730	19554	19125	19212	17906	18018	19410	18470	18434	19186	20198	22313	17228	13943	16118	14137	13732	12755	12454	12925	11320	12616	11021	11441	8431	7971	7668	7965	7735	7551
NH3	3B1a	38056	36795	35093	33259	32343	34045	33989	33328	34555	31895	32102	33045	32236	31159	29495	31134	28759	27472	26604	24955	29727	29013	30253	30668	31024	30381	29752	29516	29409	29194	29047
NH3	5D3	20181	19316	18465	17605	16732	15849	14961	14072	13190	12322	11481	10658	9895	9095	8239	7378	6111	5542	5629	3529	1424	1390	3159	3146	2561	2558	2468	2471	2480	2499	2512
CO	1A2a	130189	135047	120710	123571	126502	90566	81439	57549	47738	75938	99770	99935	98829	87343	95824	96875	92581	97545	95132	72257	89081	86652	74198	81971	95291	97082	91496	97191	90582	89084	54341
CO	5C2	436786	385083	423670	372103	334308	256874	491411	577280	464416	440176	535175	621924	502370	692931	540071	470891	583554	583168	545401	621456	642577	671607	438035	775958	502981	646372	636385	601011	820912	589617	589617

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A1a	10218	9392	10908	9483	9558	10045	9194	9899	4938	3222	2358	3626	4442	4843	5177	5152	3836	4523	3746	2882	2884
PM10	1A1a	22595	20573	24162	20774	20404	20087	17463	18003	7768	4342	3034	4904	6128	6428	6814	6823	5196	6002	4985	3585	3653
TSP	1A1a	35529	31855	37482	31788	31194	29217	24961	25093	10017	5079	3578	5821	7271	7921	8245	8462	6628	7813	6541	4730	5045

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	2860436	2768509	3918091	2225224	2233891	3118410	2371590	5167149	3843512	4500502	4321952	4641226	5645273	3962108	4283042	4440288	3380056	2582683	1929619	1701867	1558802	1714609	2188404	1951561	1862242	2308777	1732491	1734395	1714126	761361	546066
Pb	1A2a	4977267	5399051	3647605	3236139	5806369	6507781	6015124	5522442	4843291	4976485	6356487	6466196	6891673	6695743	7739010	7666779	7769773	8543724	8256379	5437509	6975352	7471311	7206965	6491308	6817199	7227374	7611439	7678249	7716920	7521153	6241541
Pb	1A2f	18353743	18101889	17426678	16782815	17910781	32394849	33706070	34249110	33444751	31259142	16041419	4513366	4197891	3853004	3402209	2720899	2035941	1404132	1256410	1126449	1146248	1133512	937337	728328	688906	690489	683322	688513	731053	725396	658552
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	5776938	6302116	4722913	4722911	119	131	4455295	5224681	5426164	4512851	4810927	5432180	5646276	5584555	4926628	4519463	4831915	4652769	4192015	4035420	3487197	3215634	2932840	2740738	1708826	2066740	1906676	2232752	2329763	2653973	2211483
Pb	1A3bii	135177048	77966951	45961212	35939437	32216053	23560136	19760131	16155393	13372993	10057464	6438126	3267170	2445946	2457049	2311423	1979090	2020799	2183076	1877455	1628125	1593097	1290792	1218139	1302628	1232128	1176602	1128325	1211768	1239246	1349571	893850
Pb	1A3biv	129424282	90691447	49417923	43017821	44361220	31581957	21495557	18182654	14962435	13309313	8956209	3660427	2852173	3426655	3616943	3442599	4032170	4427636	4569618	4857404	4566708	785747	690913	1601048	1826560	95	79	68	234923	1859808	1292597
Pb	2C7a	2875882	2973832	2804972	2806268	2867276	2617866	4356552	5101996	4943134	4889342	4867182	4520180	4772360	4663960	3763850	4555010	4333366	4242500	4510078	4351803	4234000	3302800	2021259	1261000	1004000	609000	833419	510719	663000	557000	444909
Pb	5C2	4594610	4037284	4444097	3906480	3519444	2709280	5220378	6131889	4935551	4682254	5700082	6626730	5352857	7383326	5754571	5017448	6217895	6213784	5811367	6621749	6846795	7156115	4667355	8268005	5359370	6887237	6780817	6403902	8746991	6282497	6282497
Cd	1A1a	1237219	1581996	2399201	1137685	1082328	1650880	1086250	1009879	1534446	2465756	2233030	2543213	3199231	1892496	1892646	2119835	1508493	890592	723805	545467	530153	637435	648457	491529	474550	481506	509183	497926	468678	298907	211955
Cd	1A2e	8383	8369	8074	7911	10755	13330	7540	7004	5983	141891	117354	120725	148623	161100	159828	158355	165568	150094	187099	140266	109406	134684	147750	98168	59719	96040	202519	229194	236510	271287	266506
Cd	1A2f	14800309	13124682	10885041	9619653	10162059	11058175	9972071	9604712	9031993	7976397	5607097	4314657	4039202	3708662	3319328	2241429	1291900	331877	167752	135234	131904	127762	109443	95016	80445	99833	85567	89869	94865	96339	92503
Cd	1A2gviii	676376	518087	343134	363555	350986	343980	356306	279450	396604	252397	243151	258449	281535	340533	339676	339896	250226	285461	301106	238878	200248	237495	251613	182852	110549	196038	237185	272216	274760	329923	310845
Cd	1A4bi	1174573	1192267	1205941	1197015	1195182	1120297	1119509	1119314	1115132	1108249	1108609	1113530	1113779	1111830	1126697	1129763	1132220	1133282	1144128	1355674	1363096	1361051	1378711	1381877	1389700	1377839	996063	994895	996266	1001340	1000280
Cd	2C1	1042947	1040317	1021805	1041023	1092188	1170544	1064554	1275789	1394804	1478479	1649849	1724422	1724489	1752264	1879545	1764282	1881235	1932460	1859845	1486670	1694378	1560957	1399008	1427674	1464210	1522118	1358961	1384810	1392143	1348098	1101365
Cd	2C7a	180840	161823	152636	152708	152181	146464	224255	263269	247119	240297	241005	215430	225590	221220	186290	215500	210244	207440	230098	94100	142700	312910	209500	132200	97000	56000	67300	81800	62000	45000	36183
Cd	2G	103289	103272	103248	103223	103193	103158	110407	44115	73059	233278	113620	216168	221386	298700	542534	550331	500656	609979	563733	667688	411456	696915	260115	431290	431039	381884	331149	346523	396513	369606	316546
Cd	3F	5278499	5295545	4779087	4681735	4036753	3258774	4859699	4533999	4830058	4535619	2066274	686732	752204	753078	457333	411064	199887	165502	102268	101607	129262	230141	187595	151531	295466	300884	207462	244786	291791	260499	260499
Cd	5C2	480034	421806	464309	408140	367703	283059	545413	640645	515655	489191	595531	692345	559254	771392	601224	524211	649631	649201	607158	691825	715337	747654	487634	863821	559934	719562	708444	669064	913865	656380	656380
Hg	1A1a	3378737	3677118	4943002	3643320	3507618	4778900	2202014	2287059	2940241	3685280	3555905	3833219	4622314	3346711	3293499	3471585	2715960	2255406	1667993	1362113	1172453	1494271	1874243	1433147	1489073	1645573	1775514	1646435	1617726	628285	386957
Hg	1A2f	1489340	1517274	1531112	1507938	1666736	2954302	3134480	3220493	3246382	3122594	1901544	896393	882858	841275	808052	768406	769515	569119	485409	381915	399149	367145	349752	305471	377366	421053	429009	428510	441227	418989	374908
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593	215729	256787
Hg	2C1	837238	845041	816408	843452	878188	825745	774089	821168	854088	895699	993251	1039531	1039973	1060205	1136513	1081528	1153721	1183169	1138034	910969	1033750	949794	849322	863148	880298	907877	810812	840147	842381	816609	674954
Hg	3F	1022715	1020172	885814	901000	771360	614551	943488	870464	944752	851394	380052	123652	137464	137556	72758	65397	31800	26330	16270	16165	20564	36613	29845	24107	47006	47868	33005	38943	46421	41443	41443
Hg	5C1a	662494	444374	459494	363409	370124	147792	152813	28448	30918	41952	41600	41700	41650

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	5C2	68576	60258	66330	58306	52529	40437	77916	91521	73665	69884	85076	98906	79893	110199	85889	74887	92804	92743	86737	98832	102191	106808	69662	123403	79991	102795	101206	95581	130552	93769	93769
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	3Df	53564096	50435319	47603438	49075944	56192673	55954037	67500631	76259522	80921343	84382652	13448270	13819781	14213486	12431395	13105479	2503741	2571114	2614901	2880491	2527706	10525021	11011397	9702725	6208979	10071341	8570320	10319479	10432479	11052647	11032595	11255306
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	381196365	274761703	114690547	315294754	258529200	207163379	206487493	275046671	306627490	259635484	192343995	175418734	182830618	210480532	134453035	135523063	22132957	32442765	30964242	13520021	12052293	12546986	11346714	7758694	11647088	10161223	12032548	12138398	13153048	13116552	13362595
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	381196365	274761703	114690547	315294754	258529200	207163379	206487493	275046671	306627490	259635484	192343995	175418734	182830618	210480532	134453035	135523063	22132957	32442765	30964242	13520021	12052293	12546986	11346714	7758694	11647088	10161223	12032548	12138398	13153048	13116552	13362595
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	381196365	274761703	114690547	315294754	258529200	207163379	206487493	275046671	306627490	259635484	192343995	175418734	182830618	210480532	134453035	135523063	22132957	32442765	30964242	13520021	12052293	12546986	11346714	7758694	11647088	10161223	12032548	12138398	13153048	13116552	13362595
PCB	1A2a	447588	1572538	213979	156085	2600722	3140160	2165228	873670	279456	4	1	61641	380454	42496	139826					120242			1025927		197480	84358	37124	130840	169991	138487
PCB	1A2c	268788	265661	327171	694130	1256562	3519083	3048367	183391	56396	44	47	151441	320902	616375	222451	55	50	49	55	15527	24	25	41261	23	24	26	27	28	31	31	33