Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: ES      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3dii	86143	91146	90698	92194	88411	84481	82705	62796	66764	60718	50259	52524	53227	60940	56680	53641	58520	51207	43515	35874	31269	24686	26117	14582	10027	13527	20878	36403	37643	40789
NMVOC	1A3bv	82468	83339	88049	80057	83060	71260	64311	60595	51884	43673	35852	30139	24347	22115	16976	13026	10492	8480	6786	6158	4646	4284	3836	1562	1621	1652	1732	1826	1715	1817
NMVOC	3B1a	26981	26176	24951	23666	23026	24955	24917	24437	25336	23396	23738	24455	23838	23034	21809	21457	19879	19005	18432	17307	20979	20739	21703	22093	22351	23234	22758	22583	22506	22343
NH3	3B1a	39289	37982	36225	34332	33385	34633	34576	33904	35153	32446	32257	33204	32391	31309	29637	30939	28579	27301	26438	24799	29300	28609	29831	30242	30593	29950	29330	29097	28993	28781
NH3	3B2	11524	11286	11226	11529	10150	8559	12315	11115	11526	10610	13349	13931	12661	12773	11558	11453	12877	12192	12270	13225	12466	9989	10967	10577	10205	10964	10101	10181	10186	9827
NH3	3B4giv	12982	15625	14739	13548	14256	14372	14814	15668	16273	16539	17572	18730	16558	16502	17735	17054	16590	19904	14983	13440	12949	13640	13545	12953	12420	12911	13158	13022	13797	13216
NH3	5D3	20181	19316	18465	17605	16732	15849	14961	14072	13190	12322	11481	10658	9895	9095	8239	7378	6111	5542	5629	3529	1424	1390	643	641	1986	1984	1986	1988	1996	2011
CO	1A2a	130173	135031	120693	123554	126485	90550	81421	57528	47721	75921	99748	99913	98806	87352	95836	96882	92582	97545	95132	72268	89082	86651	74209	82002	95311	97097	91518	97220	90611	89147
CO	5C2	310050	273720	301086	264348	237229	182142	347413	408140	328276	311022	377946	439134	354718	489271	381339	332492	412042	411769	385102	438804	453717	474215	309292	547897	355150	456397	449345	424368	579638	579638

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A1a	10218	9392	10908	9483	9558	10045	9194	10257	4938	3221	2356	3625	4438	4840	5176	5159	3833	4506	3711	2865
PM2.5	1A2gviii	3402	3634	3966	4826	4532	4426	3235	3775	3774	2722	2556	2764	2919	2185	1329	2303	2161	2536	2566	2970
PM10	1A1a	22595	20573	24162	20774	20404	20087	17463	18212	7768	4341	3033	4903	6123	6425	6812	6830	5193	5980	4940	3564
TSP	1A1a	35529	31855	37482	31788	31194	29217	24961	25093	10017	5078	3576	5820	7263	7915	8242	8468	6624	7783	6477	4711

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	2860436	2768509	3918091	2225224	2233891	3118410	2371590	5167149	3843512	4500502	4321952	4641226	5645273	3962108	4283042	4440288	3380056	2582683	1929619	1701867	1558802	1714609	2186005	1949732	1861169	2308036	1731524	1726409	1697043	729253
Pb	1A2a	4977267	5399051	3647605	3236139	5806369	6507781	6015124	5522442	4843291	4976485	6356590	6466293	6891787	6695838	7739135	7666900	7769908	8543819	8256494	5437955	6975462	7471311	7206965	6495298	6817199	7227374	7611457	7678272	7716943	7522102
Pb	1A2f	18353743	18101889	17426678	16782815	17910781	32394849	33706070	34249110	33444751	31259142	16041503	4513519	4198074	3853144	3402298	2721024	2036183	1404419	1256656	1120580	1146535	1133512	937187	728193	688822	690370	707310	725315	769968	778307
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	5776938	6302116	4722913	4722911	119	131	4455295	5224681	5426164	4512851	4810927	5432180	5646276	5584555	4926628	4519463	4831915	4652769	4192015	4035420	3487197	3215634	2932840	2740738	1708826	2066740	1906676	2232752	2329763	2653973
Pb	1A3biv	72464532	51433318	34282664	30161389	32043879	28304615	26088863	23828161	23549298	19997309	14011230	6347752	1232293	1387486	1330701	1517351	1648861	1857400	1813675	1871850	1897162	362807	340254	833351	861134	13017	15611	15707	137881	975568
Pb	2C7a	2875882	2973832	2804972	2806268	2867276	2617866	4356552	5101996	4943134	4889342	4867182	4520180	4772360	4663960	3763850	4555010	4333366	4242500	4510078	4351803	4234000	3302800	2021259	1261000	1004000	609000	833419	510719	663000	557000
Pb	5C2	1996943	1754714	1931526	1697863	1529646	1177527	2268919	2665086	2145125	2035036	2477411	2880158	2326498	3208995	2501094	2180720	2702467	2700680	2525779	2877993	2975804	3110243	2028560	3593501	2329328	2993381	2947128	2783311	3801681	3801681
Cd	1A1a	1237219	1581996	2399201	1137685	1082328	1650880	1086250	1009879	1534446	2465756	2233030	2543213	3199231	1892496	1892646	2119835	1508493	890592	723805	545467	530153	637435	647302	490648	474034	481101	508718	494081	460453	270737
Cd	1A2f	14800309	13124682	10885041	9619653	10162059	11058175	9972071	9604712	9031993	7976397	5607099	4314662	4039207	3708667	3319331	2241433	1291907	331886	167739	132384	131912	127762	109371	94951	80405	99776	97117	107588	113602	121807
Cd	1A2gviii	676376	518087	343134	363555	350986	343980	356306	279450	396604	252397	243176	258479	281571	340562	339706	339930	250259	285492	300785	222489	200277	237495	251022	182434	110305	195809	181459	218844	220625	257124
Cd	1A4bi	1174573	1192267	1205941	1197015	1195182	1120297	1119509	1119314	1115132	1108249	1108609	1113530	1113779	1111830	1126697	1129763	1132220	1133282	1144128	1355674	1363096	1361051	1379856	1381608	1390138	1378029	1383522	1387093	1384657	1387237
Cd	2C1	1042947	1040317	1021805	1041023	1092188	1170544	1064554	1275789	1394804	1478479	1649849	1724422	1724489	1752264	1879545	1764282	1881235	1932460	1859845	1486670	1694378	1560957	1399008	1427674	1464210	1522118	1358961	1384810	1392143	1351241
Cd	2C7a	180840	161823	152636	152708	152181	146464	224255	263269	247119	240297	241005	215430	225590	221220	186290	215500	210244	207440	230098	94100	142700	312910	209500	132200	97000	56000	67300	81800	62000	45000
Cd	2G	103289	103272	103248	103223	103193	103158	110407	44115	73059	233278	113620	216168	221386	298700	542534	550331	500656	609979	563733	667688	411456	696915	260115	431290	431039	381884	331149	346523	396513	369606
Cd	3F	8124016	8108011	6852164	6824794	6005610	4900260	7538056	7107668	7677758	6756268	2864932	960968	1054847	1052517	457333	411064	199887	165502	102268	101607	129262	230141	187595	151531	295466	300884	207462	244786	291791	291791
Cd	5C2	811258	712852	784682	689757	621419	478370	921748	1082691	871457	826733	1006448	1170064	945140	1303654	1016069	885917	1097877	1097151	1026098	1169185	1208920	1263536	824102	1459860	946290	1216061	1197271	1130720	1544433	1544433
Hg	1A1a	3378737	3677118	4943002	3643320	3507618	4778900	2202014	2287059	2940241	3685280	3555905	3833219	4622314	3346711	3293499	3471585	2715960	2255406	1667993	1362113	1172453	1494271	1874192	1433102	1489048	1645550	1775487	1646266	1617359	593704
Hg	1A2f	1489340	1517274	1531112	1507938	1666737	2954302	3134480	3220493	3246382	3122594	1901545	896395	882860	841277	808053	768408	769519	569123	485412	381793	399153	367145	349749	305468	377364	421050	429507	429274	442033	420336
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593	215729	256787
Hg	2C1	837238	845041	816408	843452	878188	825745	774089	821168	854088	895699	993251	1039531	1039973	1060205	1136513	1081528	1153721	1183169	1138034	910969	1033750	949794	849322	863148	880298	907877	810812	840147	842381	816609
Hg	3F	1292457	1289911	1090117	1085763	955438	779587	1199236	1130765	1221461	1074861	455785	152881	167817	167446	72758	65397	31800	26330	16270	16165	20564	36613	29845	24107	47006	47868	33005	38943	46421	46421
Hg	5C1a	662494	444374	459494	363409	370124	147792	152813	28448	30918	41952	41600	41700	41650

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	2C1	69814	71329	66633	68963	70437	56118	52867	45953	43562	51611	60667	62457	62202	61483	65829	63003	66374	68905	66752	53075	61978	58712	53155	56156	59827	66026	58615	54396	55830	53629
DIOX	5C2	3120	2742	3018	2653	2390	1840	3545	4164	3352	3180	3871	4500	3635	5014	3908	3407	4223	4220	3947	4497	4650	4860	3170	5615	3640	4677	4605	4349	5940	5940
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	3Df	53564096	50435319	47603438	49075944	56192673	55954037	67500631	76259522	80921343	84382652	13448270	13819781	14213486	12431395	13105479	2503741	2571114	2614901	2880492	2527706	10525021	11011397	9702725	6208979	10071341	8570320	10319479	10432479	10756021	10709985
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	381196316	274761698	114690562	315294826	258529268	207163431	206487471	275046637	306627665	259635636	192343952	175418686	182830555	210480481	134453314	135523100	22132894	32442694	30964181	13519607	12052225	12546914	11346001	7758483	11647061	10161379	12125955	12230517	12946849	12889388
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	381196316	274761698	114690562	315294826	258529268	207163431	206487471	275046637	306627665	259635636	192343952	175418686	182830555	210480481	134453314	135523100	22132894	32442694	30964181	13519607	12052225	12546914	11346001	7758483	11647061	10161379	12125955	12230517	12946849	12889388
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	381196316	274761698	114690562	315294826	258529268	207163431	206487471	275046637	306627665	259635636	192343952	175418686	182830555	210480481	134453314	135523100	22132894	32442694	30964181	13519607	12052225	12546914	11346001	7758483	11647061	10161379	12125955	12230517	12946849	12889388
PCB	1A2a	447588	1572538	213979	156085	2600722	3140160	2165228	873670	279456	4	1	61641	380454	42496	139826					120242			1025927		197480	84358	37124	130840	169991	138487
PCB	1A2c	268788	265661	327171	694130	1256562	3519083	3048367	183391	56396	44	47	151441	320902	616375	222451	55	50	49	55	15524	24	25	41261	23	24	26	26	25	26	26