Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: ES      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A3dii	86143	91146	90698	92194	88411	84481	82705	62796	66764	60718	50259	52524	53227	60940	56680	53641	58520	51207	43515	35874	34176	24686	26117	14582	10027	13527	20878	36790	37707
NOx	5C2	24352	21490	23640	20757	18635	14311	27321	32097	25818	24464	29733	34548	27907	38493	30001	26158	32417	32395	30297	34522	35695	37308	24333	43105	27941	35906	35351	33386	33386
NMVOC	3B1a	26981	26176	24951	23666	23026	24955	24917	24437	25336	23396	23738	24455	23838	23034	21809	21457	19879	19005	18432	17307	20979	20739	21703	22093	22351	23234	22758	22583	22506
NH3	3B1a	39289	37982	36225	34332	33385	34633	34576	33904	35153	32446	32257	33204	32391	31309	29637	30939	28579	27301	26438	24799	29300	28609	29831	30242	30593	29950	29330	29097	28993
NH3	3B2	11524	11286	11226	11529	10150	8559	12315	11115	11526	10610	13349	13931	12661	12773	11558	11453	12877	12192	12270	13225	12466	9989	10967	10577	10205	10964	10101	10181	10186
CO	1A2a	130178	135040	120700	123563	126491	90549	81407	57514	47699	75898	99717	99882	98781	87351	95818	96866	92581	97544	95131	72268	89078	86651	74193	82001	95311	97096	91518	97225	90599
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974	118576	128362	142109	124988	116859	132876	127783
CO	5C2	307424	271413	298546	262116	235218	180594	344430	404636	325455	308346	374688	435347	351659	485052	378050	329624	408488	408218	381781	435020	449804	470125	306625	543171	352087	452461	445470	420708	420708

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A1a	10213	9387	10903	9477	9552	10040	9189	10251	4933	3215	2345	3612	4425	4821	5153	5138	3810	4477	3683
PM2.5	1A2gviii	3408	3638	3970	4820	4524	4421	3225	3763	3766	2723	2553	2765	2923	2182	1320	2286	2143	2515	2507
PM10	1A1a	22588	20565	24155	20767	20397	20080	17456	18205	7761	4334	3019	4887	6107	6402	6784	6801	5164	5943	4900

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	2860439	2768512	3918094	2225227	2233894	3118413	2369483	5165042	3840277	4497267	4318717	4637991	5642088	3958856	4279792	4437035	3377125	2579221	1926156	1698405	1553121	1708454	2179827	1941153	1850761	2296561	1719302	1711318	1673494
Pb	1A2a	4977267	5399051	3647605	3236139	5806369	6507781	6015123	5522442	4843291	4976485	6356439	6466170	6891602	6695623	7738845	7666654	7769674	8543633	8256279	5437934	6975429	7471294	7206954	6495283	6817153	7227350	7611427	7678238	7716506
Pb	1A2f	18346477	18094724	17420377	16778602	17905386	32390420	33701876	34246049	33441535	31254854	16039110	4511335	4195423	3850260	3399718	2718002	2033570	1401486	1253294	1118140	1143924	1130851	936742	727621	687250	687121	704152	721432	764201
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	5724064	6244434	4679436	4679435	120	132	4414283	5176586	5376215	4471317	4766649	5382183	5594309	5533163	4881292	4477942	4785870	4605720	4164374	4016494	3455606	3163137	2886413	2667418	1663633	2023612	1873300	2195651	2274826
Pb	1A3biv	72464532	51433318	34282664	30161389	32043879	28304615	26088863	23828161	23549298	19997309	14011230	6347752	1232293	1387486	1330701	1517351	1648861	1857400	1813675	1871850	1897162	362807	340254	833351	860468	13012	15604	15684	137804
Pb	2C7a	2875882	2973832	2804972	2806268	2867276	2617866	4356552	5101996	4943134	4889342	4867182	4520180	4772360	4663960	3763850	4555010	4333366	4242500	4510078	4351803	4234000	3302800	2021259	1261000	1004000	609000	833419	510719	663000
Pb	5C2	3216230	2826101	3110871	2734539	2463613	1896498	3654268	4292326	3454889	3277581	3990061	4638715	3747004	5168334	4028204	3512217	4352531	4349653	4067961	4635229	4792762	5009286	3267152	5787609	3751563	4821071	4746576	4482736	4482736
Cd	1A1a	1237219	1581997	2399201	1137686	1082328	1650880	1085503	1009132	1533156	2464466	2231740	2541915	3197935	1891198	1891348	2118537	1507204	889288	722501	544163	527781	634824	644691	486882	469387	475938	503150	487131	449430
Cd	1A2a	97201	100140	73135	65214	101910	111843	106626	104509	94915	98342	124755	126483	132829	130660	152574	149892	151685	166732	161062	105109	135675	145261	134430	126363	131690	140228	147932	149405	150134
Cd	1A2d	112667	128217	128737	117569	140495	143956	138881	139633	141490	141538	147831	157116	170654	177720	174217	167434	232161	226967	141073	113016	101792	95252	112615	110043	127382	114348	117141	108131	93396
Cd	1A2e	8383	8369	8074	7911	10755	13330	7540	7004	5982	141479	116977	120351	148210	160901	159630	158159	165141	149706	186415	130343	108776	133918	146644	96989	58419	94539	89819	107173	108609
Cd	1A2f	14796677	13121100	10881892	9617547	10159362	11055961	9969975	9603181	9030385	7974255	5605963	4313663	4038022	3707377	3318139	2240043	1290796	330681	166311	131191	130645	126439	109155	94676	80034	99034	96316	106716	111921
Cd	1A2gviii	680008	521669	346284	365662	353683	346195	357685	280263	396962	253724	243421	258575	281864	341298	340350	340761	250673	285906	301367	223025	200214	237360	249783	180655	108126	192947	178389	215580	214609
Cd	2C1	1077330	1077061	1055118	1077028	1128317	1170956	1064931	1276213	1395248	1478903	1650272	1724850	1724901	1752264	1879545	1764282	1881235	1932460	1859845	1486670	1694378	1560956	1399008	1427674	1464209	1512772	1358961	1384809	1423663
Cd	2C7a	180840	161823	152636	152708	152181	146464	224255	263269	247119	240297	241005	215430	225590	221220	186290	215500	210244	207440	230098	94100	142700	312910	209500	132200	97000	56000	67300	81800	62000
Cd	2G	103289	103272	103248	103223	103193	103158	110407	44115	73059	233278	113620	216168	221386	298700	542534	550331	500656	609979	563733	667688	411456	696915	260115	431290	431039	381884	331149	346523	396513
Cd	3F	8124016	8108011	6852164	6824794	6005610	4900260	7538056	7107668	7677758	6756268	2864932	960968	1054847	1052517	457333	411064	199887	165502	102268	101607	129262	230141	187595	151531	295466	300884	207462	244786	244786
Cd	5C2	336024	295264	325016	285698	257392	198142	381789	448452	360959	342434	416872	484642	391478	539975	420857	366948	454742	454441	425011	484278	500736	523358	341344	604676	391954	503694	495911	468346	468346
Hg	1A1a	3378736	3677119	4943005	3643324	3507624	4778909	2201986	2287031	2940189	3685228	3555853	3833167	4622261	3346654	3293443	3471527	2715902	2255349	1667933	1362052	1172337	1494142	1874064	1432935	1488834	1645309	1775233	1645553	1616861
Hg	1A2f	1488098	1516046	1530035	1507212	1665809	2953535	3133701	3219955	3245820	3121867	1901114	896039	882455	840848	807657	767873	769128	568703	484928	381394	398757	366744	349707	305441	377169	420647	429154	428858	441469
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593	215729	256787
Hg	2C1	835948	843631	815129	842062	876798	826079	774393	821510	854446	896040	993592	1039877	1040305	1060205	1136513	1081528	1153720	1183169	1138035	910969	1033749	949794	849322	863148	880298	901958	810813	840147	862343
Hg	2D3a	209223	209666	210310	210912	211419	211842	212249	212704	213325	214291	215923	218203	222280	226334	229781	225646	221105	216773	211511	204821	196732	188475	179997	170371	160930	152324	143608	102973	103343
Hg	3F	1292457	1289911	1090117	1085763	955438	779587	1199236	1130765	1221461	1074861	455785	152881	167817	167446	72758	65397	31800	26330	16270	16165	20564	36613	29845	24107	47006	47868	33005	38943	38943
Hg	5C1a	662494	444374	459494	363409	370124	147792	152813	28448	30918	41952	41600	41700	41650

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	2C1	69814	71329	66633	68963	70437	56118	52867	45953	43562	51611	60667	62457	62202	61483	65829	63003	66374	68905	66752	53075	61978	58712	53155	56156	59827	65793	58615	54396	56618
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	3Df	53564096	50435319	47603438	49075944	56192673	55954037	67500631	76259522	80921343	84382652	13448270	13819781	14213486	12431395	13105479	2503741	2571114	2614901	2880492	2527706	10525021	11011397	9702725	6208979	10071341	8570320	10319479	10433330	10573434
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	381190122	274755327	114686058	315290483	258524645	207158734	206482604	275042029	306622427	259629504	192338276	175413459	182825614	210475478	134448622	135518559	22127844	32437722	30951100	13471867	12007438	12491599	11285606	7710008	11607195	10135901	12101794	12206391	12744729
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	381190122	274755327	114686058	315290483	258524645	207158734	206482604	275042029	306622427	259629504	192338276	175413459	182825614	210475478	134448622	135518559	22127844	32437722	30951100	13471867	12007438	12491599	11285606	7710008	11607195	10135901	12101794	12206391	12744729
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	381190122	274755327	114686058	315290483	258524645	207158734	206482604	275042029	306622427	259629504	192338276	175413459	182825614	210475478	134448622	135518559	22127844	32437722	30951100	13471867	12007438	12491599	11285606	7710008	11607195	10135901	12101794	12206391	12744729
PCB	1A2a	447588	1572538	213979	156085	2600722	3140160	2165228	873670	279456	4	1	61641	380454	42496	139826					120242			1025927		197480	84358	37124	130840	169991
PCB	1A2c	268788	265661	327171	694130	1256562	3519083	3048367	183391	56396	44	48	151449	320897	616371	222450	55	50	49	56	15526	25	29	41265	25	25	27	27	28	30
PCB	1A2gviii	386894	834416	781723	645612	871665	1946871	805845	318840	96748	1121	1073	46687	76936	118741	17193	1521	1119	1274	1349	1002	893	1069	1137	812	477	867	808	980	967