Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3dii	101170	110500	109034	109443	106330	98601	100015	78234	81958	77389	64026	67601	69172	79896	80724	78778	83229	74390	63775	52565	51422	37060	39925	21277	14576	19962	29434	47097
NH3	3B1a	38253	36980	35270	33426	32504	33693	33638	32984	34199	31564	31368	32288	31499	30446	28821	30079	27784	26541	25702	24108	28462	27784	28971	29369	29710	29091	28489	28263
CO	1A2a	130169	135025	120686	123559	126492	90549	81405	57514	47699	75898	99715	99883	98780	87343	95817	96865	92581	97544	95131	72126	89078	86651	72986	82001	95311	97115	91678	97869
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974	118576	128362	142109	124988	116859	132876

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A2gviii	3408	3639	3970	4820	4524	4421	3226	3764	3767	2724	2554	2765	2924	2181	1320	2288	2144	2506
PM10	5E	1877	1796	1812	1783	1656	1910	1788	1620	1470	1365	1170	1426	1348	1295	1255	1248	5587	1196
BC	1A2gviii	807	868	941	1133	1118	1112	812	927	984	735	680	767	807	592	346	606	561	672

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	2860436	2768509	3918091	2225224	2233891	3118409	2369480	5165039	3840273	4497263	4318713	4637971	5642019	3958854	4279788	4437033	3376801	2579216	1926152	1698400	1553117	1708427	2179822	1941151	1850759	2296553	1719300	1711313
Pb	1A2a	4977394	5399187	3647702	3236139	5806678	6508153	6015484	5522746	4843573	4976485	6356439	6466255	6891790	6695647	7739012	7666654	7769661	8543644	8256280	5367203	6975431	7471294	6603456	6495283	6817154	7227356	7687411	7999451
Pb	1A2f	18346481	18094725	17420372	16778600	17905386	32390420	33701874	34246059	33441535	31254854	16039108	4511334	4195419	3850257	3399718	2718001	2033547	1401485	1253306	1118152	1143935	1130853	935072	724665	770533	865117	886053	882144
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	5724064	6244434	4679436	4679435	120	132	4414283	5176586	5376215	4471317	4766649	5382183	5594309	5533163	4881292	4477942	4785870	4605720	4164374	4016494	3455606	3163137	2886413	2667418	1663633	2023612	1873300	2195651
Pb	1A3biv	72468088	51431956	34275951	30157243	32037786	28296918	26089019	23830424	23548690	19994828	14017148	6356302	1208025	1352970	1302685	1473172	1598871	1799879	1762509	1789918	1771316	1638397	1600515	1558072	1599806	1561954	1915145	1922761
Pb	2C7a	2875882	2973832	2804972	2806268	2867276	2617866	4356552	5101996	4943134	4889342	4867182	4520180	4772360	4663960	3763850	4555010	4333366	4242500	4510078	4351803	4234000	3302800	2021259	1261000	1004000	609000	833419	510719
Cd	1A1a	1237219	1581996	2399201	1137685	1082328	1650880	1085503	1009132	1533156	2464466	2231740	2541915	3197933	1891198	1891348	2118537	1507195	889288	722501	544163	527781	634824	644690	486882	469386	475938	503150	487130
Cd	1A2e	8384	8369	8074	7911	10755	13330	7540	7004	5982	141479	116977	120351	148209	160900	159630	158159	165140	149706	186415	130208	108776	133964	146493	96988	58419	94540	89899	107028
Cd	1A2f	14796677	13121100	10881891	9617547	10159362	11055961	9969975	9603181	9030385	7974255	5605963	4313663	4038021	3707377	3318139	2240043	1290795	330681	166311	131191	130646	126439	112331	97301	96490	130123	128193	136192
Cd	1A2gviii	680009	521670	346285	365662	353683	346195	357686	280264	396963	253724	243420	258575	281863	341298	340350	340760	250670	285908	301368	223027	200215	237361	249784	180654	108126	192948	178390	214997
Cd	2C1	1077330	1077061	1055118	1077028	1128317	1170956	1064931	1276213	1395248	1478903	1650272	1724850	1724901	1752264	1879545	1764282	1881235	1932460	1859845	1486670	1694378	1560956	1399008	1427674	1464209	1512772	1358961	1382350
Cd	2C7a	180840	161823	152636	152708	152181	146464	224255	263269	247119	240297	241005	215430	225590	221220	186290	215500	210244	207440	230098	94100	142700	312910	209500	132200	97000	56000	67300	81800
Cd	2G	103289	103272	103248	103223	103193	103158	110407	44115	73059	233278	113620	216168	221386	298700	542534	550331	500656	609979	563733	667688	411456	696915	260115	431290	431039	381884	331149	346523
Cd	3F	6621584	6383022	6345042	5846810	5218260	5078040	4912679	4657706	4434911	4308611	1844906	349164	342687	355818	187598	182841	136170	142407	118666	134522	144026	151715	156760	145386	165640	141960	116483	116483
Hg	1A1a	3378726	3677107	4942991	3643308	3507606	4778889	2201966	2286315	2939583	3684496	3555294	3832896	4621940	3346348	3293004	3471109	2715591	2255328	1667913	1362033	1172292	1494061	1873966	1433258	1488798	1645275	1775244	1645587
Hg	1A2f	1488003	1515879	1529875	1507169	1665809	2953535	3133666	3219955	3245820	3121867	1901090	896042	882455	840811	807657	767868	769128	568703	484928	381395	398757	366744	334659	291578	335819	351988	359003	349594
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593	215729	256787
Hg	2C1	835948	843631	815129	842062	876798	826079	774393	821510	854446	896040	993592	1039877	1040305	1060205	1136513	1081528	1153720	1183169	1138035	910969	1033749	949794	849322	863148	880298	901958	810813	838590
Hg	3F	1053434	1015481	1009439	930174	830178	807870	781563	740999	705554	685461	293508	55549	54518	56607	29845	29088	21663	22656	18879	21401	22913	24136	24939	23130	26352	22585	18531	18531
Hg	5C1a	662494	444374	459494	363409	370124	147792	152813	28448	30918	41952	41600	41700	41650

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	2C1	69814	71329	66633	68963	70437	56118	52867	45953	43562	51611	60667	62457	62202	61483	65829	63003	66374	68905	66752	53075	61978	58712	53155	56156	59827	65793	58615	54334
HCB	1A2gviii	258664	198477	131250	137144	132312	131757	136113	106714	150895	95252	91698	97758	106508	129112	129382	129691	95169	108118	115159	85637	76857	91226	96339	69674	41411	73944	68308	82465
HCB	1A3dii	121661	131842	129573	131799	129105	116836	117169	87197	91965	87463	73129	77062	79981	92752	88250	83645	95108	85233	72740	60357	57308	42891	44580	25787	17848	24294	38571	66726
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	327657901	224357702	67125497	266263557	202402317	151277649	139055759	198854989	225778920	175323208	179021139	161699631	168740927	198184716	121418010	133090568	19634532	29993894	28239168	11060194	1601089	1597896	1721139	1643076	1677066	1705686	1939299	1928898
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	327657901	224357702	67125497	266263557	202402317	151277649	139055759	198854989	225778920	175323208	179021139	161699631	168740927	198184716	121418010	133090568	19634532	29993894	28239168	11060194	1601089	1597896	1721139	1643076	1677066	1705686	1939299	1928898
PCB	1A2a	447812	1572770	214128	156085	2601227	3140817	2165874	874212	279925	4	1	61772	380789	42566	140093										197480	84358	166306	676912
PCB	1A2c	268885	265759	327294	694224	1256606	3519129	3048427	183447	56490	44	48	151778	321170	617026	222898	55	50	49	56	31	25	29	30	25	25	27	8724	16884
PCB	1A2gviii	387079	834632	781938	645786	871722	1946934	805914	318944	96907	1121	1073	46789	76998	118864	17226	1521	1119	1274	1349	1002	893	1069	1137	812	477	867	808	975