Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3dii	98560	105550	107371	107600	102409	96854	96790	78339	82235	77492	65333	67969	68519	77003	77652	75881	85115	78166	70685	58803	56246	43868	45717	27388	17461	23148	32999
SOx	1A2b	21635	22216	23509	23025	22742	21545	22867	24464	23511	23480	24162	25490	28143	23003	19091	21716	19505	18766	17586	17644	18000	16368	17728	15732	16538	14081	13342
CO	1A2a	97256	99461	82562	82208	84331	84591	78111	52427	40408	71243	84777	87377	89645	87349	95794	96251	91959	96831	94446	71608	88486	86129	72503	61254	67881	75071	97493
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974	118576	128362	142109	124988	116859

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	2860436	2768509	3918091	2225224	2233891	3118409	2369480	5165039	3840273	4497263	4318713	4617951	5642019	3958854	4279788	4437033	3376801	2579216	1926152	1698400	1553117	1708427	2179822	1940288	1850197	2296299	1718888
Pb	1A2a	49666943	51731891	45753289	47194379	50039378	34131049	33247404	20138806	13947934	19778982	25805571	25845672	26048241	24470795	26610941	25894848	26352814	28307524	27672203	20799942	25707774	26391841	23996948	26071719	29070024	34014742	31192718
Pb	1A2f	18434465	18192319	17521600	16877865	18002805	32486148	33802945	34348659	33584236	31403262	16194195	4694932	4385573	4046095	3601413	2980843	2317425	1676857	1559922	1337137	1333195	1297603	1085220	883632	922861	1002112	1028393
Pb	1A3biv	72468387	51432273	34276290	30157581	32038144	28297288	26089404	23830817	23549129	19995288	14017628	6356809	1208551	1353531	1303271	1473780	1599508	1800546	1763141	1790529	1771916	1638977	1601063	1558604	1600347	1562515	1920078
Cd	1A1a	1237219	1581996	2399201	1137685	1082328	1650880	1085503	1009132	1533156	2464466	2231740	2526514	3197933	1891198	1891348	2118537	1507195	889288	722501	544163	527781	634824	644690	486450	469106	475811	502944
Cd	1A2a	1130246	1172319	1056415	1102902	1146876	733110	738145	388681	214225	281540	355527	348972	356880	338514	368892	359125	363802	387384	380080	283355	342250	357249	320254	341780	376259	434878	407028
Cd	1A2b	1313666	1541316	1558979	1545735	1555262	1455115	2264814	2610943	2618257	2633950	2631223	2597494	2796282	2760186	2323742	2708851	2572445	2540570	2520266	2592700	2518046	2510414	2788242	2255420	2548876	2648053	2669699
Cd	1A2f	14863644	13192633	10959775	9693921	10234316	11129614	10047738	9682121	9140179	8088440	5725287	4454922	4184326	3858053	3473322	2442279	1509211	542544	401755	299365	273808	254257	227369	211356	210926	230984	229788
Cd	2C1	945694	944369	934600	962547	1016053	1061453	975452	1182325	1291627	1309903	1427419	1503099	1505717	1548939	1668095	1659614	1797981	1807636	1771407	1369823	1514313	1443416	1247195	1223148	1240573	1249475	1119296
Cd	3F	15666460	12490844	13358998	14733390	13067644	12584475	12658842	11914319	11747590	11525224	5007945	608865	597544	624751	373467	364244	262026	546756	220582	245767	264909	281256	291917	266179	311205	265366	265366
Hg	1A1a	3378726	3677107	4942991	3643308	3507606	4778889	2201966	2286315	2939583	3684496	3555294	3817496	4621940	3346348	3293004	3471109	2715591	2255328	1667913	1362033	1172292	1494061	1873966	1433112	1488703	1645222	1686478
Hg	1A2f	1555152	1588330	1607792	1583577	1740801	3027300	3211561	3299047	3355775	3236219	2020592	1037513	1028980	991714	963072	970314	987865	780877	720716	549814	541956	494747	449862	400750	445991	445709	452855
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593	215729
Hg	2C1	571324	568887	564486	580430	613615	663865	609886	738970	807147	818409	891547	938547	940170	966867	1041143	1035874	1121750	1127970	1105298	854724	944961	900782	778450	763835	774787	780529	699301
Hg	3F	2492391	1987180	2125295	2343948	2078943	2002076	2013907	1895460	1868935	1833558	796718	96865	95064	99392	59415	57948	41686	86984	35093	39099	42145	44745	46441	42347	49510	42217	42217
Hg	5C1a	662494	444374	459494	363409	370124	147792	152813	28448	30918	41952	41600	41700	41650

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A2a	35798	37429	33074	33819	35488	25657	23112	15858	12888	20273	26627	26612	26517	24502	26115	25203	25714	27320	26912	21196	25843	26082	23957	26809	30336	36407	32253
HCB	1A2c	39338	38276	39479	43186	46565	55436	52360	42938	42163	41237	43407	45542	50487	50569	45324	46136	47683	45806	46950	41205	41711	44112	47445	41860	46294	46609	45809
HCB	1A3dii	118523	125941	127596	129578	124348	114767	113392	87314	92275	87582	74623	77483	79221	89394	84889	80567	97263	89565	80615	67520	62683	50773	51044	33194	21384	28170	43243
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	327117957	223808856	66584443	265730349	201867378	150767986	138566657	198354171	225268566	174763918	178410831	161087346	168129215	197580054	120791611	132504550	19061727	29415338	27661708	10396024	938448	937398	1069166	992617	997272	1029289	1270813
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	327117957	223808856	66584443	265730349	201867378	150767986	138566657	198354171	225268566	174763918	178410831	161087346	168129215	197580054	120791611	132504550	19061727	29415338	27661708	10396024	938448	937398	1069166	992617	997272	1029289	1270813
PCB	1A2a	447812	1618365	255971	156085	2701981	3217497	2262214	957545	344544	4	5102	85797	419840	46500	169954										197480	84358	37124
PCB	1A2c	268885	285453	357930	729439	1264651	3524548	3057434	192140	69522	44	4318	211220	354102	674368	270399	55	50	50	56	31	25	29	30	27	25	30	29
PCB	1A2gviii	387079	875954	835469	708761	883212	1955014	817425	335030	118861	1121	5042	64672	84766	129773	20572	1521	1119	1274	1349	1002	894	1069	1137	973	621	1010	958