Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3bi	328653	346150	377051	358631	344932	306415	305778	290045	274561	260697	241703	229573	224533	221011	209699	204742	196585	189947	176229	169235	166288	160457	152019	154205	165851	174655
NOx	1A3dii	130630	137695	141620	145585	153475	147435	157320	125760	131118	124214	108194	107719	108450	121355	124781	119624	130997	113625	102923	85398	81744	64252	66497	39431	25268	33844
SOx	1A4ai	6162	8109	9230	6633	6956	8211	7727	8038	7686	8192	9887	10032	10309	11245	12621	12744	10609	9368	9074	9588	9517	10082	9458	9319	7610	5984
NH3	2B10a	15096	14800	12327	10218	13719	13924	15346	16455	17308	17646	14836	14082	14302	14474	13718	13488	12842	14051	11371	8124	12203	10521	12465	11643	11520	12228
CO	1A2a	96581	97855	81993	81736	81923	81774	76056	50806	39539	71077	84473	86776	88955	86941	95208	95859	91650	96517	93575	71131	87614	85664	72496	61324	67916	75116
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974	118576	128362	142109	124988

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	3F	31316	3736	3667	3834	2292	2235	1608	3355	1354	1508	1626	1726	1791	1633	1910	1910
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	182393	153840	154478	156194	153920	152976	149027	149847	138095	139119	135424	133213	130645	125643	124521	124512
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	178175	150292	150903	152386	150230	149553	145736	146841	135112	136670	133282	131283	128850	124004	123107	123046
PM10	3F	33055	3944	3870	4047	2419	2359	1697	3541	1429	1592	1716	1822	1891	1724	2016	2016
TSP	3F	33635	4013	3938	4118	2461	2401	1727	3604	1454	1620	1746	1854	1924	1754	2051	2051
BC	3F	2900	346	340	355	212	207	149	311	125	140	151	160	166	151	177	177

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2a	49537106	50956813	45735450	47229048	48617294	32393455	32002848	19616805	13805478	19839148	25850547	25835569	25864563	24511466	26554436	25933616	26383219	28316702	27631413	20759072	25634784	26343244	23951527	26077327	28930019	33966432
Pb	1A2gviii	4258290	4381672	4455082	5927835	7152589	21847091	23376559	27322693	27518916	26350523	11991584	613893	689786	795468	662235	776066	567350	478712	538429	395290	356464	281484	249651	294327	251223	298226
Pb	1A3biv	78281337	55301593	36856782	32305330	34358503	30354876	28402117	26108739	25996894	22466887	15986958	7391319	1330768	1488495	1432281	1616494	1627352	1832091	1806503	1882303	1896087	1731935	1662405	1648203	1843636	1991387
Cd	1A1a	2110844	2492407	3357104	2092756	2054425	2620603	2120097	2099571	2691470	3739585	3540620	3900978	4506559	3326164	3424221	3524523	2844501	2218698	2068133	1866922	1792946	1790214	1798896	1542114	1459417	1525400
Cd	1A1b	1846654	1917213	2020238	1981968	1991805	1983527	2049396	2146709	2122319	2143493	2160183	2060707	2009642	1920852	1989923	1814616	1801774	1820735	1690051	1403395	1184456	875029	528670	312571	207881	188507
Cd	1A2a	1220845	1257351	1146459	1185159	1245632	819597	785521	454521	280237	321122	397551	394492	408688	397065	405037	391747	392298	404468	399392	297517	357367	361997	324000	346190	386385	448264
Cd	1A2c	399616	488860	427625	443105	588166	713077	398461	356264	298744	200426	150122	145380	176031	181216	135737	124361	72454	49344	74889	57807	54913	36033	35615	33337	31993	111062
Cd	1A2f	14889520	13205610	10962663	9790490	10289662	9961949	8615873	8009573	7451513	6467805	5304864	5009821	4787569	4548361	4149722	3043150	2011653	1023172	845784	705646	737436	710506	692957	634414	674387	637817
Cd	1A2gviii	719615	736654	723297	842190	987630	2183223	2244471	2604169	2678025	2619334	1354647	384102	416290	466344	400297	475567	378076	330604	366192	270309	239865	196814	170331	188482	170652	184810
Cd	2C1	945694	944369	934600	962547	1016053	1061453	975452	1182325	1291627	1309903	1427419	1503099	1505717	1548939	1668095	1659614	1797981	1807636	1771407	1369823	1514313	1443416	1247195	1223148	1240573	1249475
Hg	1A1b	1846178	1916862	2019919	1981592	1991386	1983058	2049125	2147078	2122925	2144078	2160889	2061195	2010624	1922275	1991683	1816456	1803319	1822722	1692401	1405892	1187605	879125	533650	318422	226922	192427
Hg	1A2b	373417	370545	199586	217181	218695	221027	235550	264871	265545	264362	278537	297933	321333	320071	327508	359676	346608	344420	340494	322885	330823	324720	292950	286421	228856	57571
Hg	1A2f	1302595	1203147	1074169	1064551	1180582	1199263	1121059	1141242	1193696	1171916	1148858	1112879	1119307	1104699	1068739	1021621	990936	784827	703417	563436	591736	552887	518623	460910	515630	518043
Hg	1A2gviii	570291	615180	632364	739283	850247	2098926	2227182	2525244	2580093	2487185	1248698	291402	292144	308623	286459	341034	317329	297372	319494	239140	205629	185910	161075	161569	153655	148701
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	236198	238057	213593
Hg	2C1	571324	568887	564486	580430	613615	663865	609886	738970	807147	818409	891547	938547	940170	966867	1041143	1035874	1121750	1127970	1105298	854724	944961	900782	778450	763835	774787	780529
Hg	3F	2534496	2030212	2168320	2386980	2121960	2045049	2056875	1932986	1905375	1867423	811883	96865	95064	99392	59415	57948	41686	86984	35093	39099	42145	44745	46441	42347	49510	49510

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A2a	35538	36795	32932	33759	34021	23919	21871	15286	12669	20272	26594	26522	26244	24426	25988	25171	25685	27291	26867	21169	25795	26053	23966	26803	30327	36396
HCB	1A3dii	156798	164003	167998	175001	186001	174399	184000	140001	146943	140198	123399	122621	125197	140660	136281	126937	149479	130003	117199	97918	90997	74181	74160	47759	30899	41059
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	326717052	223443512	66305851	265490999	201602944	150477985	138464745	198226311	225050669	174503348	178116311	160750859	167728963	197108220	120268475	131949174	18519328	28857617	27146880	9951211	492728	471429	593975	565900	536117	544227
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	326564728	223301642	66152829	265315122	201406180	150280672	138097000	197911929	224762804	174248570	177900644	160567718	167574722	196977732	120187562	131902609	18466975	28817228	27110369	9920453	464266	448004	570543	550509	526124	530683
PCB	1A2a	6	1268607	54521	158731	283806	382706	195013	62027	5	4	1	1	0	0	1
PCB	1A2gviii	6104	2836654	5735122	4446744	3679299	5542712	6003429	718113	0	1079	834	847	926	1000	955	962	882	957	1121	897	741	976	970	1259	1060	1401