Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3bi	328702	346202	377108	358687	344988	306469	305834	290104	274625	260765	241772	229644	224610	221095	209784	204830	196675	190037	176315	169321	166373	160541	152099	153029
NOx	1A3dii	99520	104560	107360	110980	117400	111635	118560	92880	97098	92252	80697	80279	81291	91115	91454	86682	97724	84856	76715	63834	60372	48163	49147	30155
NMVOC	1A3bv	86752	87519	92339	83856	87048	74994	69019	65119	55493	47425	38998	33058	26778	23981	18545	14223	11275	9097	7305	6565	4993	4635	4310	1631
NMVOC	1B2ai	27544	32307	33236	29119	28603	26243	23665	21706	25478	21025	19631	21327	20867	21172	20653	19218	18925	18168	18168	16120	16422	15961	18449	22028
SOx	1A1b	134294	145647	143792	142789	134340	123316	127331	126479	119829	115019	106639	95828	84533	73575	72559	63512	63927	61945	47337	42275	35769	26169	16932	12711
NH3	2B10a	15096	14800	12327	10218	13719	13924	15346	16455	17308	17646	14836	14082	14302	14474	13718	13488	12842	14051	11371	8124	12203	10521	12465	11646
NH3	5B1	2123	1571	1215	1292	1466	1727	1982	2494	2525	2796	3514	3937	4945	5375	6416	6816	7159	7710	9427	10091	12510	11850	12329	12329
CO	1A2a	96577	97860	82015	81757	81923	81935	76157	50809	39550	71077	84533	87444	89279	88002	96589	96399	91650	96517	93575	71146	87615	85664	72496	62742
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974	118576	128362

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A2gviii	1729	1796	1932	2203	1914	2030	1629	1647	2122	2274	2217	2577	2020	761
PM2.5	1A4ai	1390	1354	1353	1390	1418	1372	1405	1354	1477	2974	1170	1196	1233	1248
PM10	1A2gviii	2180	2322	2452	2792	2403	2508	2017	2036	2938	3413	3430	3974	3018	1085

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A2a	49537113	50956887	45735530	47229116	48617256	32393448	32002804	19616775	13805515	19839138	25850528	25835556	25864573	24511466	26554436	25933616	26383219	28316702	27631413	20759072	25634784	26343244	23951527	26077744
Pb	1A2gviii	4179480	4297670	4383673	5871591	7091473	21797106	23323173	27274541	27456183	26290553	11939908	550886	642091	765285	636142	759956	546320	453791	519394	375173	347178	256634	241315	238487
Pb	1A3biv	78291600	55308843	36861614	32309565	34363007	30358855	28405840	26112162	26000302	22469832	15989054	7392287	1330942	1488689	1432468	1616705	1627564	1832330	1806738	1882596	1896266	1732151	1662622	1594215
Cd	1A1a	2183504	2557942	3454409	2193600	2147395	2727041	2229748	2101038	2699040	3746862	3546454	3901819	4505244	3324419	3423071	3524378	2846347	2219190	2074033	1869092	1793060	1788719	1801798	1541945
Cd	1A1b	1846648	1917253	2020330	1981959	1991954	1983592	2049317	2146615	2122335	2145450	2160255	2061632	2009711	1920830	1850641	1813403	1804418	1820637	1704932	1403449	1184446	896049	622435	312573
Cd	1A2a	1220833	1257359	1146413	1185102	1245664	819666	785493	454535	280227	321147	397559	394476	408694	397065	405037	391747	392298	404468	399392	297517	357367	361997	324000	346399
Cd	1A2f	14987058	13306294	11053679	9869609	10373151	10040625	8694600	8089864	7544465	6563347	5397732	5105092	4872276	4616282	4221197	3110758	2077168	1091498	905276	759917	790263	771830	741770	670791
Cd	1A2gviii	659003	672044	668348	798914	940615	2144780	2203403	2567134	2629780	2573204	1315179	338117	383717	447763	384684	463642	363010	314337	354074	256779	233163	181630	169685	165900
Cd	2C1	945694	944369	934600	962547	1016053	1061453	975452	1182325	1291627	1309903	1427419	1503099	1505717	1548939	1668095	1659614	1797981	1807636	1771407	1369823	1514313	1443416	1247195	1251440
Hg	1A1b	1846191	1917121	2019950	1981587	1991353	1983144	2049041	2147175	2122994	2146402	2160790	2062345	2010657	1922324	1852218	1815257	1806160	1822564	1707355	1405955	1187460	900118	627503	317893
Hg	1A2f	1400388	1304075	1165519	1144079	1264518	1278414	1200199	1222005	1287086	1267902	1242298	1209201	1205506	1170615	1141896	1089923	1057454	854584	764203	618844	645279	616428	569379	500104
Hg	1A2gviii	509423	550322	577107	695602	802796	2060015	2185712	2487760	2531415	2440626	1208654	244372	258079	288417	269203	328435	301529	279998	306481	224904	198586	169557	158842	151878
Hg	2B10a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035	245035
Hg	2C1	571324	568887	564486	580430	613615	663865	609886	738970	807147	818409	891547	938547	940170	966867	1041143	1035874	1121750	1127970	1105298	854724	944961	900782	778450	781460
Hg	5C1a	709815	476115	519594	416646	442866	203727	213789	60633	63279	75102	74724	74832	74778	30000
Hg	5C2	1545755	1825970	2098099	2039476	1661393	710667	564832	410348	397809	370712	258514

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A2a	35538	36795	32932	33759	34021	23919	21871	15286	12669	20272	26594	26522	26244	24426	25988	25171	25685	27291	26867	21169	25795	26053	23966	26858
DIOX	1A3dii	6640	7000	7200	7400	7800	7496	8000	6400	6672	6320	5504	5480	5516	6172	6352	6092	6664	5780	5236	4344	4160	3268	3384	2004
HCB	2B10a	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	326300617	223291597	66413788	265637234	201557757	149880072	139585110	200075998	226888571	176554109	180132821	162823998	170053271	199869752	123094246	134962571	21416729	32372922	30751724	13562047	4014892	4390646	3964155	3828667
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	326173621	223169123	66271819	265504445	201411508	149774811	139462258	199969818	226780564	176451275	180044051	162756065	169985563	199797024	123042528	134916379	21364688	32332787	30715571	13531677	3986842	4367669	3941206	3813728
PCB	1A2a	6	1268573	54528	158724	283806	382708	195011	62029	5	4	1	1	0	0	1
PCB	1A2c	57979	126497	211553	671723	1080355	3352194	2888466	99444	20	44	48	48	54	57	54	55	50	50	56	31	25	29	31	28
PCB	1A2gviii	6102	2836655	5735126	4446748	3679301	5542710	6003430	718114		1079	834	847	926	1000	955	962	882	957	1121	897	741	976	970	318