Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A1a	228066	236660	250385	243877	253343	270429	229917	281126	254655	290381	311888	281114	325591	301671	324289	329097	300698	313884	205995	168629	113587	167228	180464
NOx	1A3bi	328702	346202	377108	358687	344988	306469	305834	290104	274625	260765	241772	229644	224610	221095	209784	204830	196675	190037	176315	169321	166373	160541	152099
NMVOC	4F	57886	60669	57836	59954	58205	55888	59951	66451	58178	52440	54372	56462	42969	64822	53068	39285	50434	51679	47704	55684	58435	61468	61468
SOx	1A1b	134294	145647	143792	142789	134340	123316	127331	126479	119829	115019	106639	95828	84533	73575	72559	63512	63927	61945	47337	42275	35769	26169	16932
NH3	2B5a	15096	14800	12327	10218	13719	13924	15346	16455	17308	17646	14836	14082	14302	14474	13718	13488	12842	14051	11371	8124	12203	10521	12465
NH3	6D	2123	1571	1215	1292	1466	1727	1982	2494	2525	2796	3514	3937	4945	5375	6416	6816	7159	7710	9427	10091	12510	11850	12789
CO	1A2a	96590	97873	82019	81760	81927	81939	76161	50814	39555	71082	84540	87451	89286	88019	96611	96422	91673	96550	93596	71167	87649	85693	72508
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974	118576
CO	4F	412731	432578	412381	427476	415011	398488	427455	473801	414819	373902	387681	402578	306377	462186	378384	280107	359604	368474	340134	397031	416647	438275	438275

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A4ai	1390	1354	1353	1390	1418	1372	1405	1354	1477	2974	1170	1196	1236

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A2a	49537113	50956887	45735530	47229116	48617256	32393448	32002804	19616775	13805515	19839138	25850528	25835556	25864573	24511466	26554436	25933616	26383219	28316702	27631413	20759072	25634784	26343244	23951527
Pb	1A3biv	78291600	55308843	36861614	32309565	34363007	30358855	28405840	26112162	26000302	22469832	15989054	7392287	1330942	1488689	1432468	1616705	1627564	1832330	1806738	1882596	1896266	1732151	1662622
Cd	1A1a	2183504	2557942	3454409	2193600	2147395	2727041	2229748	2101038	2699040	3746862	3546454	3901819	4505244	3324419	3423071	3524378	2846347	2219190	2074033	1869092	1793060	1788719	1801803
Cd	1A1b	1846648	1917253	2020330	1981959	1991954	1983592	2049317	2146615	2122335	2145450	2160255	2061632	2009711	1920830	1850641	1813403	1804418	1820637	1704932	1403449	1184446	896049	622435
Cd	1A2a	1220833	1257359	1146413	1185102	1245664	819666	785493	454535	280227	321147	397559	394476	408694	397065	405037	391747	392298	404468	399392	297517	357367	361997	324000
Cd	1A2fi	15604270	13934447	11673633	10617340	11255766	12124781	10835358	10586795	10104244	9059635	6628529	5366477	5180785	4989469	4525891	4222514	4055852	1324100	1320216	1061944	1022835	944276	896453
Cd	2C1	945694	944369	934600	962547	1016053	1061453	975452	1182325	1291627	1309903	1427419	1503099	1505717	1548939	1668095	1659614	1797981	1807636	1771407	1369823	1514313	1443416	1247195
Hg	1A1b	1846191	1917121	2019950	1981587	1991353	1983144	2049041	2147175	2122994	2146402	2160790	2062345	2010657	1922324	1852218	1815257	1806160	1822564	1707355	1405955	1187460	900118	627503
Hg	1A2fi	1842991	1787009	1674864	1773213	1997144	3265970	3315396	3631481	3741961	3625808	2362930	1372811	1385224	1385420	1328991	1335817	1279987	795038	777151	608895	714192	644083	591583
Hg	1A3di(i)	110500	114300	118840	92100	81440	88300	130160	162850	157370	154750	152010	167620	169420	171800	175810	192040	201190	207340	223260	221030	216610	215820	207320
Hg	2B5a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863	245035
Hg	2C1	571324	568887	564486	580430	613615	663865	609886	738970	807147	818409	891547	938547	940170	966867	1041143	1035874	1121750	1127970	1105298	854724	944961	900782	778450
Hg	6Cc	709815	476115	519594	416646	442866	203727	213789	60633	63279	75102	74724	74832	74778	30000
Hg	6Ce	1563345	1846775	2121763	2066546	1700229	750946	605575	450376	440787	412869	330897	58482	71092	77623	41314	41799	42940	94405	93024	64372	65491	64909	78626

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A2a	35538	36795	32932	33759	34021	23919	21871	15286	12669	20272	26594	26522	26244	24426	25988	25171	25685	27291	26867	21169	25795	26053	23966
HCB	2E	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	326146342	223140812	66236407	265472603	201380158	149748195	139389839	199891112	226699932	176360509	179956499	162664175	169892213	198707274	122881756	134696441	21271070	32224468	30675102	13358150	3977004	4359649	4264772
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	326300617	223291597	66413788	265637234	201557757	149880072	139585110	200075998	226888571	176554109	180132821	162823998	170053271	199869752	123094246	134962571	21416729	32372922	30751724	13562047	4014892	4390646	4295739