Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A1a	228065	236660	250385	243877	253343	270429	229917	281126	254655	290383	311867	281117	325595	301674	324288	329100	300681	313836	205966	168858	113630	193391
NOx	1A3bi	326278	343663	375959	358813	345104	306540	305902	290144	274648	260767	241762	229602	224949	221404	209981	205112	196602	189906	176238	168944	162488	150569
NOx	1A3dii	33703	33468	33115	37362	41370	35014	35747	28192	27904	37164	39066	44850	49813	51701	52681	54798	60246	71084	72671	71681	77313	83117
NMVOC	4F	57886	60669	57836	59954	58205	55888	59951	66451	58178	52440	54372	56462	42969	64822	53068	39285	50434	51679	47704	55684	55684	55684
SOx	1A1b	134294	145647	143792	142789	134340	123316	127331	126479	119829	115019	106638	95826	84531	73555	72547	63506	63923	61930	47298	42261	35750	26162
SOx	1A2fi	129558	140255	131095	129492	134518	128161	104320	126995	120141	112405	98407	103540	98365	71716	65787	66672	67019	67666	65633	95313	114584	138554
NH3	6D	2123	1571	1215	1292	1466	1727	1982	2491	2510	2796	3514	3937	4945	5482	6519	6816	7159	7661	8892	9985	12487	14696
CO	1A2a	96685	97797	82085	81725	82056	82051	76192	51341	39920	71656	84614	87779	89521	87970	96974	98524	93317	96628	88201	62936	82163	82916
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692	120974
CO	4F	412731	432578	412381	427476	415011	398488	427455	473801	414819	373902	387681	402578	306377	462186	378384	280107	359604	368474	340134	397031	397031	397031

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A2a	49573097	50971403	45738976	47229104	48605768	32377669	32001435	19629684	13810947	19833746	25837038	25826116	25834833	24465709	26552450	25922931	26372257	28336741	27637574	20767953	25634816	26353794
Pb	1A3biv	80825481	57096176	37367997	32237708	34297387	30315878	28361672	26078281	25970269	22447396	15975179	7383669	1200408	1341539	1293454	1387916	1478673	1696969	1695979	2085627	1795591	1647625
Cd	1A1a	2183976	2564999	3454536	2193682	2147567	2727146	2229632	2100219	2679414	3732107	3590424	3926420	4515202	3333979	3434735	3541253	2854046	2228116	2084933	1869325	1793111	1971126
Cd	1A1b	1846648	1917253	2020330	1981959	1991954	1983592	2049317	2146615	2122335	2145450	2160255	2061632	2003581	1914875	1844634	1803388	1796764	1813996	1697744	1396974	1183495	896291
Cd	1A2a	1238818	1270733	1149065	1187802	1244761	818306	788135	462045	282941	318452	390817	383162	392501	374195	404044	386406	386819	414483	402472	301956	357383	367269
Cd	2C1	945694	944369	934600	962547	1016053	1061453	975452	1182325	1291627	1309903	1427419	1503099	1505717	1548939	1668095	1659614	1797981	1807636	1771407	1369823	1514313	1443416
Hg	1A1b	1846191	1917121	2019950	1981587	1991353	1983144	2049041	2147165	2122926	2146071	2160790	2062345	1992517	1902910	1838345	1797219	1785399	1810666	1695472	1396367	1184904	898279
Hg	1A2fi	1532723	1459036	1337485	1293170	1415500	1397504	1302987	1327617	1433764	1416315	1364817	1358397	1357368	1324748	1282552	1278442	1280154	824810	791559	627456	724995	680068
Hg	1A3di(i)	110500	114300	118840	92100	81440	88300	130160	162850	157370	154750	152010	167620	169420	171800	175810	192040	201190	207340	223260	221030	216610	215770
Hg	2B5a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210	254863
Hg	2C1	571324	568887	564486	580430	613615	663865	609886	738970	807147	818409	891547	938547	940170	966867	1041143	1035874	1121750	1127970	1105298	854724	944961	900782
Hg	6A	1545755	1825970	2098099	2039476	1661393	710667	564832	410348	397809	370712	258514	243766	185095	182852	176532	169016	97962	82566	67170	34768	15443	11174
Hg	6Cc	709815	476115	519594	416646	442866	203727	213789	60633	63279	75102	74724	74832	74778	30000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	1A2a	35547	36712	32925	33720	33967	23841	21827	15308	12689	20312	26594	26625	26264	24419	25984	25169	25683	27297	26865	21192	25797	26054
DIOX	1A3dii	1939	1922	1897	2142	2369	2023	2085	1662	1668	2234	2335	2647	2950	3062	3120	3243	3565	4206	4300	4242	4575	4918
HCB	2E	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	349651753	246550965	89528990	289408946	226728167	177422937	164835002	230748981	260413537	210582476	217283129	202142016	209406230	239369197	166672888	178264036	68430610	79651460	77159494	49321790	43724194	42265755
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	349805039	246692817	89689800	289555397	226883549	177523020	164999803	230918525	260584508	210772789	217457587	202323545	209592152	240550854	166905136	178554450	68595747	79839607	77282841	49578687	43823973	42372485