Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A3bi	13400	13427	5381	6111	9151	8246	8951	9321	8705	7859	6845	8609	7189	6001	5341	5322	5391	5162	4300	3936	3544	3360	3248	3118	2968	3282	3272	3091	3029	2969	2955
NOx	1A3dii	550	471	392	392	314	314	550	471	471	392	550	550	864	706	628	628	864	1334	1570	628	628	392	314	314	471	471	392	514	504	418	503
NOx	1A4cii	3158	3146	2441	2180	1145	973	1182	1115	1202	527	817	2037	2276	2358	2000	1927	1642	1586	1464	1275	1224	1511	1516	1405	1554	1378	1210	1185	1126	1014	882
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	73226	65343	44178	39695	44540	47154	51788	51501	49424	44970	44676	48959	48414	49268	45760	42608	40810	45420	42667	36598	42466	40766	37691	36987	35134	30975	31513	32113	31095	26014	23758
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	73226	65343	44178	39695	44540	47154	51788	51501	49424	44970	44676	48959	48414	49268	45760	42608	40810	45420	42667	36598	42466	40766	37691	36987	35134	30975	31513	32113	31095	26014	23758
NMVOC	11B	58	17	536	194	137	56	174	344	16	331	205	19	625	62	114	26	929	88	384	18	7	6	1	24	23	25	37	10	101	15	36
NMVOC	11C	35438					34730					39621					38348	38166	38281	38163	37567	37313	37821	37889	38541	39312	39840	40616	40616	40975	41130	41130
NMVOC	1A3bi	10660	10858	4166	4885	7267	6366	7435	7658	7523	6742	5537	7190	5915	4811	4044	4006	3839	3496	2867	2586	2281	1831	1685	1389	1146	1126	1124	986	915	893	685
NMVOC	1A3biii	2553	1693	1221	1246	1013	700	682	808	897	773	716	715	670	499	439	388	389	356	345	230	226	216	190	167	149	140	119	107	91	84	66
CO	11B	582	174	5361	1941	1369	558	1737	3440	162	3310	2051	185	6245	620	1137	260	9287	877	3839	178	74	58	8	236	233	249	369	99	1015	150	357
CO	1A3bi	104183	106887	39312	46291	67512	57810	69622	72167	74760	66676	51794	65476	54035	44392	36782	35912	33868	30861	25479	23008	20657	16491	15363	12836	10848	10633	10826	9775	9141	9066	6874
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	250929	240409	148898	141230	174988	220780	259428	256209	222170	204618	189233	201626	185860	187460	169939	153651	141180	159432	157854	157333	157149	131297	142184	135982	131223	130201	144285	139941	140444	139034	138266
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	250929	240409	148898	141230	174988	220780	259428	256209	222170	204618	189233	201626	185860	187460	169939	153651	141180	159432	157854	157333	157149	131297	142184	135982	131223	130201	144285	139941	140444	139034	138266
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	250929	240409	148898	141230	174988	220780	259428	256209	222170	204618	189233	201626	185860	187460	169939	153651	141180	159432	157854	157333	157149	131297	142184	135982	131223	130201	144285	139941	140444	139034	138266

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	11B	865	78	2635	259	477	109	3940	375	1666	78	33	26	3	109	108	115	171	46	465	68	160
PM2.5	1A1a	5185	5248	5575	4450	3572	3521	2996	6029	2099	2302	6032	11587	3143	5823	4448	3204	3229	3421	3363	2374	2310
PM2.5	1A1c	360	280	310	243	160	290	230	300	200	305	536	220	218	148	189	120	150	126	107	176	142
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	12019	12054	12571	11269	10529	10054	8866	12282	8473	7918	11895	16658	7875	10335	8853	7428	6888	7127	6980	5856	5901
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	12019	12054	12571	11269	10529	10054	8866	12282	8473	7918	11895	16658	7875	10335	8853	7428	6888	7127	6980	5856	5901
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	12019	12054	12571	11269	10529	10054	8866	12282	8473	7918	11895	16658	7875	10335	8853	7428	6888	7127	6980	5856	5901
PM10	11B	1057	95	3220	317	583	134	4816	458	2036	96	41	32	4	133	132	141	209	56	568	83	196
PM10	1A1a	18372	18027	13707	11215	8758	7566	5197	12246	4302	4336	12273	24984	6130	11228	8457	5406	4674	5057	4620	2886	2638
PM10	1A1c	820	730	730	663	420	550	460	590	380	606	924	437	459	309	401	258	321	270	226	375	303
PM10	2A6	213	325	369	424	459	422	455	480	352	9	5	8	8	8	7	6	6	9	12	0
PM10	2B10a	163	129	79	122	326	266	232	184	446	50	12	11	11	170	11	2	2	1	2	2	3
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	27632	27213	23382	20814	18951	17424	14620	22092	14246	12886	20844	32574	13393	18494	15493	12184	11012	11594	11246	9127	8890
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	27632	27213	23382	20814	18951	17424	14620	22092	14246	12886	20844	32574	13393	18494	15493	12184	11012	11594	11246	9127	8890
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	27632	27213	23382	20814	18951	17424	14620	22092	14246	12886	20844	32574	13393	18494	15493	12184	11012	11594	11246	9127	8890
TSP	11B	1634	147	4977	489	901	206	7443	708	3147	148	63	50	6	206	204	218	323	87	878	129	303
TSP	2A6	645	993	1117	1285	1390	1280	1379	1500	1067	26	14	23	25	23	20	19	19	29	32	0
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	63660	62310	42592	38864	35571	27992	22451	30449	24490	19576	27268	40600	19228	24210	20490	16604	15281	16561	16686	13631	13162
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	63660	62310	42592	38864	35571	27992	22451	30449	24490	19576	27268	40600	19228	24210	20490	16604	15281	16561	16686	13631	13162
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	63660	62310	42592	38864	35571	27992	22451	30449	24490	19576	27268	40600	19228	24210	20490	16604	15281	16561	16686	13631	13162
BC	11B	78	7	237	23	43	10	355	34	150	7	3	2	0	10	10	10	15	4	42	6	14

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	57814451	50775788	42952953	32658733	32134408	29885753	30858616	28450454	25219918	20835662	20543032	16679678	14766276	10707494	6957829	3597717	1358487	4323740	2003220	1258979	4571655	7243754	2235308	2778740	2440353	1714891	1879274	2077272	1891828	1219304	1004559
Pb	1A2f	61839456	60451779	40479795	29577113	42191503	25084667	7459160	540783	552178	498668	526400	583564	505034	478273	554163	86483	108983	172708	179798	93139	45789	38147	48981	50466	93407	28482	21678	9054	38576	125416	52732
Pb	1A3bi	50589167	50828725	19909884	22963816	34862467	20977773	18693583	7614689	5585763	5623229	4150212	5040269	4652784	1744351	1679785	1760196	1122528	1183092	1187901	1090772	35242	32565	31129	29168	458	465	484	503	526	534	459
Pb	1A3biii	17847868	10890402	8353125	8268863	5770254	1697186	1253143	672762	554490	559555	344312	291528	225445	56104	26920	20557	18732	15534	12471	7766	339	257	225	203	97	96	90	89	87	84	75
Pb	2G	2030	3099	4728	7267	11177	17179	23177	53198	70624	86594	54118	65645	77367	100063	150042	260541	304899	386168	245510	100125	217169	230059	308903	344770	405685	288080	333555	339406	412884	385001	83634
Cd	1A1a	987588	867772	739769	569164	582428	529279	549482	520958	469295	405412	392295	340160	319937	265768	221535	171648	126561	192111	143118	117333	201671	236806	155272	230052	221061	194845	211660	232234	229440	174366	154168
Cd	1A2f	3216509	3144922	2103267	1538625	2192727	1301282	386147	27450	28254	25527	26906	27854	25742	24411	27574	2623	3827	4532	5148	2473	2566	2908	4363	7395	5603	3157	2465	2068	1643	1668	1765
Cd	1A4ai	31517	32401	24471	17940	26630	5313	5957	9609	9081	12086	12833	16601	13730	16079	18030	23725	19434	19359	22019	19424	18428	25403	22959	21982	16255	17384	14603	17705	14975	14765	16476
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4453032	4264994	3061820	2332566	3035933	2175233	1337421	950032	834502	765490	761051	718030	687975	659138	604327	518881	459327	583399	523932	498700	584635	597312	527164	597911	580173	554504	563667	587929	578486	516431	503692
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4453032	4264994	3061820	2332566	3035933	2175233	1337421	950032	834502	765490	761051	718030	687975	659138	604327	518881	459327	583399	523932	498700	584635	597312	527164	597911	580173	554504	563667	587929	578486	516431	503692
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	4453032	4264994	3061820	2332566	3035933	2175233	1337421	950032	834502	765490	761051	718030	687975	659138	604327	518881	459327	583399	523932	498700	584635	597312	527164	597911	580173	554504	563667	587929	578486	516431	503692
Hg	1A1a	1018648	901099	749654	569745	560297	508676	525252	488374	431659	360400	354387	292941	269977	204750	145567	88360	50563	106355	64175	51140	116350	159572	78432	133975	134018	116885	126526	132849	125719	99070	106826
Hg	1A1c	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	2000	2000	2000	2000	5001	10000	10022	10039	5022	5000	4025	4036	220	734	705	422	504	25	26	8	23	21	47	1457	2036
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1203375	1087707	887765	686672	691950	642272	646120	596463	536310	465316	464432	409008	381056	313208	249703	185404	147158	209588	164051	144477	208114	250879	170787	226253	226489	207976	217046	224018	228111	201895	204791
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1203375	1087707	887765	686672	691950	642272	646120	596463	536310	465316	464432	409008	381056	313208	249703	185404	147158	209588	164051	144477	208114	250879	170787	226253	226489	207976	217046	224018	228111	201895	204791
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1203375	1087707	887765	686672	691950	642272	646120	596463	536310	465316	464432	409008	381056	313208	249703	185404	147158	209588	164051	144477	208114	250879	170787	226253	226489	207976	217046	224018	228111	201895	204791

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A3bi	167	167	66	76	117	109	123	132	126	121	129	162	156	163	157	173	210	231	216	215	212	218	221	217	211	230	219	210	204	200	199
DIOX	1A4ai	248	241	187	159	245	28	25	105	101	108	104	137	122	130	183	160	144	154	141	104	113	113	87	101	75	60	61	52	65	71	82
DIOX	1A4bi	5292	5298	3139	2435	2052	3452	4121	3550	2495	2505	2285	1987	1946	1785	1885	1603	1418	1470	1475	1381	1392	1213	1219	1123	1035	915	852	835	789	738	729
HCB	5C1biii	1190	1188	1178	1145	1119	1097	1080	1625	1602	1076	1575	1264	1511	1929	1864	2270	279	1059	4888	14186	12586	12585	12957	3316	13982	16150	16474	20849	21764	21825	55022
PCB	1A1c	78739	48778	55449	76677	72396	81870	92585	103199	91047	95955	119409	131041	128502	121743	93445	70245	81472	108331	25966	22374	22297	11973	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PCB	1A4ai	10913	5473	26	23	5475	5442	2721	48966	49305	44206	39445	48968	42508	45228	44215	52200	31972	35033	23983	19219	16500	11911	14287	23636	14285	5106	8505	6	7485	6806	7317