Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A3bi	12995	13110	5122	5766	9053	8096	8619	9112	8509	7690	7611	8432	7037	5888	5254	5246	5393	5164	4225	3936	3520	3375	3267	3127	2984	3291	3281	3088	3017	3024
NOx	1A3dii	550	471	392	392	314	314	550	471	471	392	550	550	864	706	628	628	864	1334	1570	628	628	392	314	314	471	471	392	514	504	418
NMVOC	11B	58	17	536	194	137	56	174	344	16	331	205	19	625	62	114	26	929	88	384	18	7	6	1	24	23	25	37	10	101	15
NMVOC	11C	35438					34730					39621					38348	38166	38281	38163	37567	37313	37821	37889	38541	39312	39840	40616	40616	40975	41130
NMVOC	1A2gviii	620	610	280	250	290	230	470	330	390	390	112	387	891	928	883	575	621	547	879	412	632	524	378	517	470	810	572	757	411	508
NMVOC	1A3bi	10332	10597	3961	4603	7186	6246	7155	7483	7350	6594	6673	7034	5780	4709	3963	3932	3843	3501	2860	2592	2254	1850	1709	1400	1164	1136	1135	984	902	894
NMVOC	1A3biii	2490	1668	1173	1189	1006	697	672	803	889	765	799	710	666	497	439	389	389	355	329	229	226	216	191	167	149	141	119	106	91	80
SOx	1A2f											940	264	2339	3265	2495	1973	1970	1061	1086	289	1006	1017	1048	836	529	271	223	325	263	550
CO	11B	582	174	5361	1941	1369	558	1737	3440	162	3310	2051	185	6245	620	1137	260	9287	877	3839	178	74	58	8	236	233	249	369	99	1015	150
CO	1A3bi	100966	104294	37361	43598	66759	56709	66985	70506	73041	65220	60275	64045	52788	43440	36034	35231	33902	30915	25456	23064	20402	16669	15596	12948	11032	10743	10939	9744	8993	9051
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	254286	247473	154164	143579	170323	220964	254403	252877	221481	203528	198949	200674	185147	183027	172508	152901	141685	157476	156358	155873	156809	131126	141635	133888	128673	128636	140094	138143	130968	130800
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	254286	247473	154164	143579	170323	220964	254403	252877	221481	203528	198949	200674	185147	183027	172508	152901	141685	157476	156358	155873	156809	131126	141635	133888	128673	128636	140094	138143	130968	130800
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	254286	247473	154164	143579	170323	220964	254403	252877	221481	203528	198949	200674	185147	183027	172508	152901	141685	157476	156358	155873	156809	131126	141635	133888	128673	128636	140094	138143	130968	130800

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	11B	741	68	2340	231	426	98	3550	339	1511	71	30	24	3	99	98	105	156	42	424	62
PM2.5	1A1a	7307	7047	6406	4051	4966	4309	2537	5406	3198	2896	6315	11720	3131	5961	3703	3029	2308	2325	1824	1153
PM2.5	1A1c	360	280	310	243	160	290	230	300	200	305	536	220	218	148	189	120	150	126	107	176
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	15385	16292	16538	14341	15417	12976	9771	12645	11836	9573	13845	18183	8637	12010	8749	9557	7762	9197	6643	5880
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	15385	16292	16538	14341	15417	12976	9771	12645	11836	9573	13845	18183	8637	12010	8749	9557	7762	9197	6643	5880
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	15385	16292	16538	14341	15417	12976	9771	12645	11836	9573	13845	18183	8637	12010	8749	9557	7762	9197	6643	5880
PM10	11B	905	83	2859	282	521	120	4339	414	1846	87	37	29	4	121	120	129	191	51	519	76
PM10	1A1a	20577	19747	14486	10776	10556	8529	4967	11356	6135	5201	12674	25096	5918	11286	7391	5205	3648	4049	2993	1614
PM10	1A1c	820	730	730	663	420	550	460	590	380	606	924	437	459	309	401	258	321	270	226	375
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	32134	32028	27967	24400	24889	21199	16326	22750	18938	15451	23310	34402	14069	20299	15226	14492	12089	14071	11108	9237
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	32134	32028	27967	24400	24889	21199	16326	22750	18938	15451	23310	34402	14069	20299	15226	14492	12089	14071	11108	9237
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	32134	32028	27967	24400	24889	21199	16326	22750	18938	15451	23310	34402	14069	20299	15226	14492	12089	14071	11108	9237
TSP	11B	1399	128	4419	437	805	185	6706	640	2853	135	57	45	6	187	185	199	294	79	802	118
TSP	2A6	645	993	1117	1285	1390	1280	1379	1500	1067	26	14	23	25	23	20	19	19	29	32	0
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	70199	68386	48385	44539	43132	34395	27248	32820	28343	22560	30092	42677	20757	26560	21878	19539	16908	19513	16767	13936
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	70199	68386	48385	44539	43132	34395	27248	32820	28343	22560	30092	42677	20757	26560	21878	19539	16908	19513	16767	13936
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	70199	68386	48385	44539	43132	34395	27248	32820	28343	22560	30092	42677	20757	26560	21878	19539	16908	19513	16767	13936
BC	11B	67	6	211	21	38	9	320	31	136	6	3	2	0	9	9	9	14	4	38	6
BC	1A1a	889	858	780	493	604	551	308	658	389	352	769	1427	332	602	346	393	390	329	281	233

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A2gviii	62460004	61070004	40790002	29950002	42650001	25340002	7770002	837002	753002	613001	278717	714337	797338	949158	1047008	875608	710132	798158	1351613	825167	722184	481111	323396	416584	406921	669615	379860	697472	369502	371667
Pb	1A3bi	49389791	49855003	19099405	21816077	34740175	20893100	18353424	7615362	5589393	5624824	4150552	5040522	4653023	1744417	1680435	1764641	1125574	1186167	1171704	1092567	33127	31543	30167	28366	440	457	479	498	489	500
Pb	1A3biii	17424730	10681777	8013093	7855585	5750013	1690336	1230341	672822	554850	559713	344340	291542	225457	56106	26930	20608	18782	15573	12301	7778	323	252	222	200	97	96	90	89	83	73
Pb	2G	2029	3099	4728	7266	11176	17179	23176	53197	70624	86593	54117	65645	77367	100062	150042	260541	304898	386168	245509	100125	217168	230060	308904	344771	405686	288080	333555	339406	412884	385004
Pb	5C2	794873	794873	899766	773282	983090	1085962	1174584	1233977	1158887	1173670	1186811	829317	897883	938321	489685	484055	489067	411117	380255	322797	301000	304425	288939	306509	317029	330126	337844	340739	357990	362664
Cd	1A1a	1130009	1000009	870005	660002	650003	620004	630004	610004	550004	530004	500004	470004	480004	560003	540003	520783	510004	610004	522615	425439	612585	610727	532433	708794	631498	492250	548514	534029	484207	219852
Cd	1A2gviii	3230001	3160001	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	3131	12811	24521	20671	9001	12106	7194	28071	47394	20581	19431	11217	11180	11063	12011	17600	10216	19785	11517	12580
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4566402	4367229	3170115	2395264	3083522	2259704	1388046	1425944	1305606	1240722	866501	839275	847289	924193	856832	822868	811636	982707	902701	782406	968978	930603	866844	1039279	973661	823262	887984	894196	825368	551537
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4566402	4367229	3170115	2395264	3083522	2259704	1388046	1425944	1305606	1240722	866501	839275	847289	924193	856832	822868	811636	982707	902701	782406	968978	930603	866844	1039279	973661	823262	887984	894196	825368	551537
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	4566402	4367229	3170115	2395264	3083522	2259704	1388046	1425944	1305606	1240722	866501	839275	847289	924193	856832	822868	811636	982707	902701	782406	968978	930603	866844	1039279	973661	823262	887984	894196	825368	551537
Hg	1A1a	1013581	903675	761980	590796	581118	551430	561716	561611	501456	481473	471472	461520	461401	551311	521365	501536	501500	611437	520726	417742	607097	610114	532534	642909	629571	494281	561938	531353	481565	207718
Hg	1A2f											3590	3670	3600	8400	6467	4534	2601	5534	4346	24	10	496	25	33	38	74	9	1476	10835	10001
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1217093	1109455	920946	737794	743755	705983	705356	708148	639884	617439	618611	602701	602940	691202	639037	613140	613042	743621	657277	525480	709783	713927	636971	747703	738665	600415	668143	639748	600235	327232
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1217093	1109455	920946	737794	743755	705983	705356	708148	639884	617439	618611	602701	602940	691202	639037	613140	613042	743621	657277	525480	709783	713927	636971	747703	738665	600415	668143	639748	600235	327232
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1217093	1109455	920946	737794	743755	705983	705356	708148	639884	617439	618611	602701	602940	691202	639037	613140	613042	743621	657277	525480	709783	713927	636971	747703	738665	600415	668143	639748	600235	327232

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A3bi	162	163	63	72	116	107	119	129	124	118	127	159	153	161	155	171	210	231	210	214	211	219	221	218	211	230	219	210	204	203
DIOX	1A4bi	5292	5298	3139	2450	2059	3452	4122	3550	2496	2509	2288	1987	1946	1785	1888	1603	1418	1470	1475	1381	1392	1213	1219	1123	1035	915	852	835	789	738
DIOX	5C1bi	53	53	52	51	50	49	49	26	55	41	116	136	134	129	160	117	13	263	426	508	255	295	140	220	250	638	639	802	348	342
PCB	1A1c	78739	48778	55449	76677	72396	81870	92585	103199	91047	95955	119409	131041	128502	121743	93445	70245	81472	108331	25966	22374	22297	11973	0	0	0	0	0	0	0