Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3bi	12989	13104	5115	5759	9044	8083	8604	9097	8493	7674	7591	8410	7015	5865	5230	5220	5364	5144	4198	3908	3499	3358	3241	3125	2992	3300	3295	3172
NMVOC	11B	58	17	536	194	137	56	174	344	16	331	205	19	625	62	114	26	929	88	384	18	7	6	1	24	23	25	37	10
NMVOC	1A2gviii	620	610	280	250	290	230	470	330	390	390	112	387	891	928	883	860	620	547	879	412	632	524	378	517	470	810	572	757
NMVOC	1A3bi	10329	10593	3957	4598	7181	6238	7144	7472	7338	6582	6659	7019	5764	4692	3946	3912	3820	3486	2839	2568	2234	1829	1681	1370	1135	1102	1097	985
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	64860	61971	42273	34030	36563	40952	41914	43558	40028	37011	37138	36107	35502	34138	34355	32313	30769	28241	26438	23816	23342	23152	22937	22372	22090	21707	21516	22245
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	64860	61971	42273	34030	36563	40952	41914	43558	40028	37011	37138	36107	35502	34138	34355	32313	30769	28241	26438	23816	23342	23152	22937	22372	22090	21707	21516	22245
SOx	1A2f											940	264	2339	3265	2495	1973	1970	1061	1086	289	1006	1017	1048	836	529	271	223	325
NH3	3Da2c	10	10	11	11	12	13	9	16	3	9	28	26	24	99	96	137	142	281	262	300	285	195	217	268	188	219	298	247
CO	11B	582	174	5361	1941	1369	558	1737	3440	162	3310	2051	185	6245	620	1137	260	9287	877	3839	178	74	58	8	236	233	249	369	99
CO	1A3bi	100941	104261	37337	43571	66720	56652	66902	70425	72936	65126	60177	63945	52691	43345	35946	35127	33790	30843	25361	22961	20317	16579	15539	12791	10870	10530	10677	9764
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	236466	228956	134982	128404	162585	212214	244916	247945	218824	203055	198626	200472	190011	182820	173814	155447	141669	157593	156563	155924	156765	131862	141984	134329	128876	128915	140086	138286
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	236466	228956	134982	128404	162585	212214	244916	247945	218824	203055	198626	200472	190011	182820	173814	155447	141669	157593	156563	155924	156765	131862	141984	134329	128876	128915	140086	138286

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	11B	931	85	2921	287	526	122	4422	423	1904	90	38	29	4	119	116	124	183	49
PM2.5	1A1a	7307	7047	6406	4051	4966	4196	2537	5406	3198	2896	6315	11720	3131	5961	3703	3029	2308	2325
PM2.5	1A1c	360	280	310	243	160	290	230	300	200	305	536	220	218	148	189	4	4	5
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	15342	16263	16658	14309	15445	14224	9793	12714	11932	9641	13930	18227	8689	12128	8916	9634	7770	9222
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	15342	16263	16658	14309	15445	14224	9793	12714	11932	9641	13930	18227	8689	12128	8916	9634	7770	9222
PM10	11B	1138	104	3570	351	643	149	5405	518	2327	110	46	36	5	145	142	151	224	60
PM10	1A1a	20577	19747	14486	10776	10556	8406	4967	11356	6135	5201	12674	25096	5918	11286	7391	5205	3648	4049
PM10	1A1c	820	730	730	663	420	550	460	590	380	606	924	437	459	309	401	117	4	6
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	32087	31996	28077	24355	24906	22497	16336	22808	19032	15516	23393	34442	14115	20415	15392	14540	11920	13911
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	32087	31996	28077	24355	24906	22497	16336	22808	19032	15516	23393	34442	14115	20415	15392	14540	11920	13911
TSP	11B	1759	160	5517	543	994	230	8353	800	3596	169	71	55	7	224	220	234	346	92
TSP	2A6	645	993	1117	1285	1390	1280	1379	1500	1067	26	14	23	25	23	20	19	19	29
BC	11B	84	8	263	26	47	11	398	38	171	8	3	3	0	11	10	11	16	4
BC	1A1a	889	858	780	493	604	511	308	658	389	352	769	1427	332	602	346	393	390	329
BC	1A3bii	116	70	85	76	84	82	71	68	58	43	44	40	39	34	30	28	28	26

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2gviii	62460004	61070004	40790002	29950002	42650001	25340002	7770002	837002	753002	613001	254917	690537	773538	925358	809008	905408	505131	582858	1358613	825167	722184	481111	323396	416584	406921	669615	379860	697472
Pb	1A3bi	49397777	49858251	19104658	21822338	34751060	20898220	18357781	7617364	5591558	5626778	4152171	5042510	4654641	1744987	1681050	1765179	1126021	1186742	1185098	1093835	34533	32586	31324	29357	492	502	523	539
Pb	1A3biii	17412286	10674003	8002474	7845330	5740939	1686821	1227592	671448	553417	558439	343350	290636	224810	55933	26840	20529	18693	15498	12373	7743	337	257	230	208	102	101	94	94
Pb	5C2	794873	794873	899766	773282	983090	1085962	1174584	1233977	1158887	1173670	1186811	829317	897883	938321	489685	484055	489067	411117	380255	322797	301000	304425	288939	306509	317029	330126	337844	340739
Cd	1A1a	1130009	1000009	870005	660002	650003	620004	630004	610004	550004	530004	500004	470004	480004	560003	540003	520004	510004	610004	522615	425439	612585	610727	532433	708794	631498	492250	548514	534029
Cd	1A2f											26870	27190	25480	9330	1000	400	2807	1930	9629	717	1032	1660	2729	5694	4634	3369	2267	549
Cd	1A2gviii	3230001	3160001	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	3131	12811	24521	20671	9001	19601	7194	28071	47394	20581	19431	11217	11180	11063	12011	17600	10216	19785
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4504147	4296274	3088616	2311431	3005043	2179732	1307006	1345286	1224376	1158992	778853	755335	777262	847120	785750	759739	739633	908681	827751	708640	895754	858657	792315	964979	897030	746715	809442	803646
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	4504147	4296274	3088616	2311431	3005043	2179732	1307006	1345286	1224376	1158992	778853	755335	777262	847120	785750	759739	739633	908681	827751	708640	895754	858657	792315	964979	897030	746715	809442	803646
Hg	1A1a	1013581	903675	761980	590796	581118	551430	561716	561611	501456	481473	471472	461520	461401	551311	521365	501425	501500	611437	520726	417742	607097	610114	532534	642909	629571	494281	561938	531353
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1162132	1051077	862134	677825	683214	642202	640087	646161	578960	557737	556286	543438	547120	637872	582257	561763	563123	692396	605474	473982	659401	662752	584826	695035	686148	547941	615565	587152
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1162132	1051077	862134	677825	683214	642202	640087	646161	578960	557737	556286	543438	547120	637872	582257	561763	563123	692396	605474	473982	659401	662752	584826	695035	686148	547941	615565	587152

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A3bi	188	189	79	92	146	136	134	145	136	134	138	178	176	181	188	202	233	251	223	226	220	227	227	222	214	232	221	212
DIOX	1A4bi	3128	3229	1446	1114	814	2282	2858	2910	2172	2500	2273	1988	2013	1783	1908	1599	1418	1469	1472	1388	1389	1226	1215	1125	1048	923	855	846
DIOX	5C1bi	53	53	52	51	50	49	49	26	55	41	116	136	134	129	160	117	13	263	426	508	255	295	140	220	250	638	639	802
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	195647	190036	166494	143891	215585	334254	370680	383304	331344	316286	318929	325246	300066	312682	344479	292255	261575	322358	334592	307840	347730	314130	329070	335468	280411	279669	283641	309707
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	195647	190036	166494	143891	215585	334254	370680	383304	331344	316286	318929	325246	300066	312682	344479	292255	261575	322358	334592	307840	347730	314130	329070	335468	280411	279669	283641	309707
PCB	1A4bi	600585	637963	206486	119458	24087	106261	190188	198702	144229	257739	208936	160785	186088	129986	185545	165886	131012	76397	82001	53794	61775	79010	69502	69461	62469	39327	15197	18930
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8375370	8538918	5608772	5047951	5149404	4122568	4724781	4317155	4350138	3773131	2620614	4197387	4002636	4752608	3709908	3723970	3045419	1806404	2801772	3056834	4175012	3618193	3479816	3939587	4222074	4232328	4193539	5042369
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	8375370	8538918	5608772	5047951	5149404	4122568	4724781	4317155	4350138	3773131	2620614	4197387	4002636	4752608	3709908	3723970	3045419	1806404	2801772	3056834	4175012	3618193	3479816	3939587	4222074	4232328	4193539	5042369