Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3bi	12989	13103	5114	5758	9044	8083	8603	9096	8492	7674	7590	8409	7014	5864	5230	5217	5360	5141	4195	3906	3496	3356	3238	3122	2989	3297	3269
NMVOC	1A2gviii	620	610	280	250	290	230	470	330	390	390	112	387	891	928	883	860	620	547	879	412	632	524	378	517	470	810	572
NMVOC	1A3bi	10329	10592	3956	4598	7180	6237	7144	7471	7337	6581	6658	7019	5763	4691	3946	3911	3818	3484	2838	2567	2233	1829	1680	1369	1135	1102	1069
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	65873	62972	43336	35105	37644	42052	43058	44685	41124	38107	38246	37195	36609	35239	35458	33424	31984	29396	27543	24864	24396	24190	24017	23428	23145	22783	22461
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	65873	62972	43336	35105	37644	42052	43058	44685	41124	38107	38246	37195	36609	35239	35458	33424	31984	29396	27543	24864	24396	24190	24017	23428	23145	22783	22461
NH3	3B4giv	1197	1014	626	591	573	533	426	476	482	332	298	341	384	428	471	266	351	120	376	299	358	488	434	182	480	452	452
CO	11B	582	174	5361	1941	1369	558	1737	3440	162	3309	2051	186	6245	620	1137	260	9287	877	3839	178	74	58	8	236	233	249	369
CO	1A3bi	100939	104258	37335	43568	66716	56646	66896	70418	72930	65120	60169	63938	52683	43337	35939	35118	33776	30833	25354	22955	20312	16579	15532	12786	10867	10527	10391
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	236464	228953	134979	128400	162581	212208	244910	247938	218819	203049	198618	200464	190003	182812	173806	155441	141658	157585	156553	155918	156760	131827	141979	134326	128931	129034	139895
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	236464	228953	134979	128400	162581	212208	244910	247938	218819	203049	198618	200464	190003	182812	173806	155441	141658	157585	156553	155918	156760	131827	141979	134326	128931	129034	139895

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11B	891	81	2781	276	505	117	4296	410	1847	87	37	29	4	117	115	123	181
PM2.5	1A1a	7307	7047	6406	4051	4966	4196	2537	5406	3198	2896	6315	11720	2642	4639	2704	2462	1979
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	15336	16257	16653	14303	15445	14224	9791	12712	11931	9641	13930	18227	8201	10807	7929	9288	7484
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	15336	16257	16653	14303	15445	14224	9791	12712	11931	9641	13930	18227	8201	10807	7929	9288	7484
PM10	11B	1089	99	3399	337	618	144	5251	501	2257	107	45	35	5	143	141	150	221
PM10	1A1a	20577	19747	14486	10776	10556	8406	4967	11356	6135	5201	12674	25096	4850	8386	5214	4016	2943
PM10	1A1c	820	730	730	663	420	550	460	590	380	606	924	437	459	309	401	4	4
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	32079	31987	28070	24346	24906	22498	16332	22804	19030	15517	23393	34441	13048	17516	13228	14027	11186
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	32079	31987	28070	24346	24906	22498	16332	22804	19030	15517	23393	34441	13048	17516	13228	14027	11186
TSP	11B	1683	153	5253	521	954	222	8115	774	3488	165	70	54	7	221	217	232	342
TSP	1A1a	52827	50477	28776	24716	21996	14486	8537	13656	7936	6549	14675	29257	7248	9597	6939	4543	3359
TSP	2A6	660	1010	1130	1299	1390	1280	1380	1500	1067	26	14	23	25	23	20	19	19
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	70148	68349	48495	44485	43142	35740	27245	32869	28437	22626	30176	42712	19603	23430	19626	21080	16473
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	70148	68349	48495	44485	43142	35740	27245	32869	28437	22626	30176	42712	19603	23430	19626	21080	16473
BC	11B	891	81	2781	276	505	117	4296	410	1847	87	37	29	4	117	115	123	181
BC	1A1a	889	858	780	493	604	511	308	658	389	352	769	1427	321	573	324	380	383
BC	1A3bii	116	70	85	76	84	82	71	68	57	43	43	40	39	34	30	28	28

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2gviii	62460004	61070004	40790002	29950002	42650001	25340002	7770002	837002	753002	613001	254917	690537	773538	925358	809008	905408	505131	582858	1358613	825167	722184	481111	323396	416584	406921	669615	379860
Pb	1A3bi	49396727	49856951	19103468	21820875	34748897	20896321	18356141	7616648	5591152	5626272	4151640	5041946	4653961	1744680	1680714	1764796	1125608	1186394	1184788	1093570	344351	324910	312015	292298	492	501	512
Pb	1A3biii	17411916	10673725	8001976	7844804	5740582	1686668	1227482	671385	553377	558389	343306	290604	224777	55923	26835	20525	18687	15494	12370	7741	2436	1604	1306	1138	103	101	94
Pb	5C2	794873	794873	899766	773282	983090	1085962	1174584	1233977	1158887	1173670	1186811	829317	897883	938321	489685	484055	489067	411117	380255	322797	301000	304425	288939	306509	317029	330126	337844
Cd	1A1a	1130009	1000009	870005	660002	650003	620004	630004	610004	550004	530004	500004	470004	480004	560003	540003	520004	510004	610004	522615	425439	612585	610727	532433	708794	631498	492250	548514
Cd	1A2f											26870	27190	25480	9330	1000	400	2807	1930	9629	717	1032	1660	2729	5694	4634	3369	2267
Cd	1A2gviii	3230001	3160001	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	3131	12811	24521	20671	9001	19601	7194	28071	47394	20581	19431	11217	11180	11063	12011	17600	10216
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4503147	4295274	3087616	2310430	3004043	2178732	1305005	1343285	1222376	1156992	778852	755334	777263	847120	785749	759738	739631	908677	827749	708636	895752	858645	792299	964978	896691	746772	809447
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	4503147	4295274	3087616	2310430	3004043	2178732	1305005	1343285	1222376	1156992	778852	755334	777263	847120	785749	759738	739631	908677	827749	708636	895752	858645	792299	964978	896691	746772	809447
Hg	1A1a	1013581	903675	761980	590796	581118	551430	561716	561611	501456	481473	471472	461520	461401	551311	521365	501425	501500	611437	520726	417742	607097	610114	532534	642909	629571	494281	561938
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1160922	1049867	860984	676675	682094	641082	637877	643981	576780	555579	556076	543277	546992	637635	582062	561497	562643	691885	604875	473741	659160	662879	585221	694834	685627	547650	615191
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1160922	1049867	860984	676675	682094	641082	637877	643981	576780	555579	556076	543277	546992	637635	582062	561497	562643	691885	604875	473741	659160	662879	585221	694834	685627	547650	615191

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A3bi	188	189	79	92	146	135	134	145	136	134	138	178	176	181	188	202	233	251	223	225	220	226	227	222	214	232	220
DIOX	1A4bi	3128	3229	1446	1114	814	2282	2858	2910	2172	2500	2273	1988	2013	1783	1908	1599	1418	1469	1472	1388	1389	1226	1215	1125	1048	923	855
DIOX	5C1bi											120	140	80	130	160	120	10	260	430	508	255	295	140	220	250	638	639
PCB	1A4bi	600585	637963	206486	119458	24087	106261	190188	198702	144229	257739	208936	160785	186088	129986	185545	165886	131012	76397	82001	53794	61775	79010	69502	69461	62469	39327	15197
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8375104	8538652	5608582	5047761	5149252	4122416	4724515	4316927	4349910	3772931	2620348	4197135	4002273	4753276	3709616	3723659	3044960	1805758	2801012	3056530	4174708	3618078	3479796	3939400	4221790	4232058	4193291
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	8375104	8538652	5608582	5047761	5149252	4122416	4724515	4316927	4349910	3772931	2620348	4197135	4002273	4753276	3709616	3723659	3044960	1805758	2801012	3056530	4174708	3618078	3479796	3939400	4221790	4232058	4193291