Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3bi	13082	13149	5192	5828	9221	8243	9011	9326	6280	7844	7765	8564	7153	5968	5310	5304	5370	5156	4279	3924	3528	3301	3260	3172	3044	3302
NMVOC	1A1c	702	718	663	455	314	368	458	386	331	238	163	242	365	412	369	394	118	137	50	71	63	76	66	69	146	748
NMVOC	1A2gviii	620	610	280	250	290	230	470	330	390	390	112	387	891	928	883	860	620	547	879	412	632	524	378	517	470	810
NMVOC	1A3bi	10315	10552	3986	4618	6827	6314	6572	7603	5346	6681	6482	6806	5604	4557	3833	3800	3641	3324	2715	2455	2126	1725	1607	1350	1134	1076
NMVOC	2H2	1788	1541	1097	899	837	839	713	745	742	646	619	650	715	734	768	724	779	808	799	747	720	766	740	720	653	655
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	65404	62717	42874	34828	37303	42219	42867	45278	39236	38984	37971	37387	36641	35249	34968	32936	31322	29077	26876	24278	23956	23576	23324	22807	22573	22917
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	65404	62717	42874	34828	37303	42219	42867	45278	39236	38984	37971	37387	36641	35249	34968	32936	31322	29077	26876	24278	23956	23576	23324	22807	22573	22917
NH3	3B3	2355	2177	1473	1170	1256	1225	820	858	913	866	935	1029	1027	1023	990	1008	1015	1113	1051	1047	1076	1063	1075	1037	1047	874
NH3	3B4giv	1197	1014	626	591	573	533	426	476	482	332	298	341	384	428	471	266	351	120	376	299	358	488	434	182	480	452
NH3	3Da2a	4646	4256	3446	2860	2776	2551	2244	2286	2255	2160	2018	2073	2159	2386	2397	2521	2531	2620	2595	2611	2692	2716	2765	2874	2795	2977
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	21744	19286	16312	11978	11527	10773	9583	9771	9662	8830	8574	8835	8812	9746	9859	9624	9765	10158	10879	10366	10613	10695	11037	11087	11143	11645
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	21744	19286	16312	11978	11527	10773	9583	9771	9662	8830	8574	8835	8812	9746	9859	9624	9765	10158	10879	10366	10613	10695	11037	11087	11143	11645
CO	11B	582	174	5361	1941	1369	558	1737	3440	162	3309	2051	186	6245	620	1137	260	9287	877	3839	178	74	58	8	236	233	249
CO	1A3bi	102595	105877	38333	44606	63488	58314	60440	73013	53490	67414	58170	61580	50915	41790	34637	33920	31926	29136	23999	21734	19196	15537	14791	12530	10818	10239
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	215002	215150	120695	121827	157647	212389	235815	248316	195739	203911	194893	197129	186495	176586	169493	153430	138767	154685	155010	153917	154769	130282	140411	133616	128226	128086
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	215002	215150	120695	121827	157647	212389	235815	248316	195739	203911	194893	197129	186495	176586	169493	153430	138767	154685	155010	153917	154769	130282	140411	133616	128226	128086

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	11B	914	82	2772	272	495	115	4201	401	1811	86	36	28	4	115	114	121
PM2.5	1A1a	7300	7040	6400	4045	4960	4190	2530	5400	3192	2892	6310	11716	2638	4636	2700	2460
PM2.5	1A1c	360	280	310	243	160	290	230	300	199	305	536	220	218	148	189	3
PM2.5	1A4ai	330	700	870	683	570	610	570	570	359	332	503	402	244	351	197	280
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	15325	16246	16635	14285	15427	14193	9761	12683	11928	9620	13894	18170	8164	10786	7904	9151
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	15325	16246	16635	14285	15427	14193	9761	12683	11928	9620	13894	18170	8164	10786	7904	9151
PM10	11B	1117	100	3388	332	605	140	5135	490	2214	105	44	35	4	141	139	147
PM10	1A1a	20570	19740	14480	10770	10550	8400	4960	11350	6129	5197	12669	25091	4845	8382	5210	4014
PM10	1A1c	820	730	730	663	420	550	460	590	380	606	924	437	459	309	401	4
PM10	1A4ai	450	980	1090	900	770	830	710	700	448	406	572	469	282	388	233	309
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	32069	31978	28053	24329	24889	22468	16303	22776	19031	15496	23359	34383	13013	17497	13204	14006
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	32069	31978	28053	24329	24889	22468	16303	22776	19031	15496	23359	34383	13013	17497	13204	14006
TSP	11B	1726	155	5236	514	936	217	7936	757	3422	162	68	54	7	218	215	228
TSP	1A4ai	630	1590	1540	1385	1220	1350	1030	1040	697	612	784	603	428	480	337	386
TSP	2A6	660	1010	1130	1299	1390	1280	1380	1500	1067	26	14	23	25	23	20	19
BC	11B	914	82	2772	272	495	115	4201	401	1811	86	36	28	4	115	114	121
BC	1A1a	889	857	779	493	604	510	308	658	389	352	768	1427	321	573	324	380
BC	1A4ai	93	197	245	192	160	171	160	160	101	93	141	113	69	100	55	79

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A2gviii	62460000	61070000	40790000	29950000	42650000	25340000	7770000	837000	753000	613000	254910	690530	773530	925350	809000	905400	505128	582850	1358602	825160	722177	481104	323324	416577	406915	669610
Pb	1A3bi	49969509	50380257	19444437	22189290	35173638	21130891	18449734	7651621	4121243	5593965	4219169	5075016	4689099	1755421	1686239	1769566	1130400	1192062	1248781	1101369	250975	219614	208858	180780	18330	19461
Pb	1A3biii	17400455	10710593	8089717	7882035	5814144	1807179	1385114	748261	567172	654885	316732	263502	199238	48444	22711	17278	15555	12713	10448	6208	1380	816	642	504	10057	10011
Pb	5C2	794873	794873	899766	773282	983090	1085962	1174584	1233977	1158887	1173670	1186811	829317	897883	938321	489685	484055	489067	411117	380255	322797	301000	304425	288939	306509	317029	330126
Cd	1A1a	1130000	1000000	870000	660000	650000	620000	630000	610000	550000	530000	500000	470000	480000	560000	540000	520000	510000	610000	522612	425437	612582	610725	532430	708792	631496	492248
Cd	1A2f											26870	27190	25480	9330	1000	400	2807	1930	9627	717	1032	1660	2729	5694	4634	3369
Cd	1A2gviii	3230000	3160000	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	3130	12810	24520	20670	9000	19600	7193	28070	47392	20580	19430	11216	11179	11062	12010	17599
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4505279	4297127	3088515	2311410	2975384	2179782	1306233	1344574	1222913	1158315	774469	745348	771198	841258	786193	761860	728652	900864	828900	709380	896649	859334	793128	965724	897392	747095
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	4505279	4297127	3088515	2311410	2975384	2179782	1306233	1344574	1222913	1158315	774469	745348	771198	841258	786193	761860	728652	900864	828900	709380	896649	859334	793128	965724	897392	747095
Hg	1A1a	1010000	900000	760000	590000	580000	550000	560000	560000	500000	480000	470000	460000	460000	550000	520000	500000	500000	610000	519399	416688	605899	609115	531530	642080	628811	493658
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1154317	1043835	857389	673605	676331	636803	633451	639323	572022	546525	550284	534716	538952	619411	569335	548095	549908	678970	597722	467665	652766	656773	578940	688929	679722	541811
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1154317	1043835	857389	673605	676331	636803	633451	639323	572022	546525	550284	534716	538952	619411	569335	548095	549908	678970	597722	467665	652766	656773	578940	688929	679722	541811

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A3bi	190	190	80	72	149	138	141	148	108	137	140	181	178	183	191	204	234	252	230	227	223	222	230	225	218	233
DIOX	1A4bi	3128	3229	1446	1114	814	2282	2858	2910	2172	2500	2273	1988	2013	1783	1908	1599	1418	1469	1472	1388	1389	1226	1215	1125	1048	923
DIOX	5C1bi											120	140	80	130	160	120	10	260	430	508	255	295	140	220	250	638
HCB	1A2gviii	63592	62176	41593	30416	43433	45965	47513	52351	53039	47456	59849	80634	67511	65024	90123	91127	74464	93911	106685	48791	68068	77011	79649	77558	22678	34947
PCB	1A4bi	600585	637963	206486	119458	24087	106261	190188	198702	144229	257739	208936	160785	186088	129986	185545	165886	131012	76397	82001	53794	61775	79010	69502	69461	62469	39327
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	8375231	8538780	5608633	5047815	5149340	4122493	4724604	4317018	4349964	3773007	2620412	4197207	4002329	4755608	3711264	3725131	3045724	1806508	2802525	3058486	4175897	3618701	3480460	3939409	4221980	4232298
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	8375231	8538780	5608633	5047815	5149340	4122493	4724604	4317018	4349964	3773007	2620412	4197207	4002329	4755608	3711264	3725131	3045724	1806508	2802525	3058486	4175897	3618701	3480460	3939409	4221980	4232298