Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A3dii	12457	13995	13608	11968	10920	11497	12686	11843	10615	8736	10049	10915	12647	12587	10766	12720	11948	10538	13443	12626	11059	10905	11745	12190	9955	10769	11952	12250	11939
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981	1150	881	517	397	406	337	809	1172
NH3	3B1b	4716	4715	4751	4573	4269	4190	4148	4009	3850	3819	4385	4542	4427	4313	4449	2831	2982	3594	3629	3481	3390	3480	3464	3545	3464	3412	3383	3258	3225
CO	2A6	11381	11381	11381	11381	11381	11317	10920	10551	12058	12056	11430	10590	11582	11161	15598	12517	9290	6398	6544	2444	11	13	31	10	9	15	12	12	14

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	2A5b	229	165	299	179	225	270	213	168	716	234	259	211	211	213	299	108	78	105	184
PM10	2A5b	2288	1648	2986	1786	2244	2694	2134	1683	7130	2345	2580	2103	2103	2122	2980	1076	785	1046	1839
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	34599	34102	33580	33557	33953	35027	35258	36958	40635	33432	33732	31592	30173	29856	29184	28166	27894	28391	28573
PM10	NTCOMPL(NECD)	34599	34102	33580	33557	33953	35027	35258	36958	40635	33432	33732	31592	30173	29856	29184	28166	27894	28391	28573
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	34599	34102	33580	33557	33953	35027	35258	36958	40635	33432	33732	31592	30173	29856	29184	28166	27894	28391	28573
TSP	2A5b	7594	5450	9932	5913	7447	8954	7078	5568	23813	7784	8600	7005	7005	7065	9940	3573	2599	3476	6131
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	105184	103666	96773	94771	96889	99876	99212	99919	117076	97541	99341	96333	93739	92968	94627	88708	87725	94417	94170
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	105184	103666	96773	94771	96889	99876	99212	99919	117076	97541	99341	96333	93739	92968	94627	88708	87725	94417	94170
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	105184	103666	96773	94771	96889	99876	99212	99919	117076	97541	99341	96333	93739	92968	94627	88708	87725	94417	94170

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8579662	6664735	4546567	5118110	3815746	3537978	3154606	2954743	2870154	2631303	2232853	2085835	1705747	472596	538123	408039	352974	365011	368651	325559	379068	350872	334974	359819	367556	319883
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560	876120	525000	575400	634620	418320	664860
Pb	1A3bi	91660347	71383317	64685032	28045791	72417	73018	73368	75268	76127	76636	77082	76633	79266	82827	85929	85892	88420	93561	94951	95410	98169	102128	105415	108976	112764	118180	120749	122881	126638
Pb	1A3bii	6225280	4754493	4317593	1908035	21553	21515	21800	22130	22623	23533	24270	24968	25466	27306	29415	30954	34017	37189	37616	35517	35176	33689	32396	31160	30116	30293	29995	30004	30200
Pb	1A4bi	483591	595594	564842	578227	535255	494495	465459	468142	429675	425266	485495	557451	572206	645899	683870	793159	874781	1038888	1011775	1008141	1079307	972673	937702	971757	944789	1094325	1155165	1166861	1188730
Pb	2A3	475600	461100	420500	407450	435580	406000	406000	883000	523000	562000	330000	172000	220000	272000	436000	148000	12000	16000	18000	18000	24000	25000	116000	22000	9700	45149	48472	43348	45300
Pb	2C1	3281652	3225420	3220485	3322255	2377340	2021419	1103610	1169442	1104338	1137393	992865	1074127	327963	334026	360962	589709	274580	253636	252767	161621	261557	295331	273493	275660	337245	290520	298656	312052	341364
Pb	2C5	1451242	1451242	1451242	1451725	1451725	1451725	1451242	1451242	1451242	1451242	1451242	1452484	1450964	1450147	1451196	1451589	1451150	1451541	1451339	1451794	1451460	1452157	1450948	1451226	1451438	1451714	1451092	1451392	1450800
Pb	2G	2854307	3759612	4075898	3595805	4352248	6638065	6102827	4829329	7805588	14737670	3303515	2609775	3238888	4131911	5840927	2529179	2901378	60568	52574	58017	40999	35702	68872	67695	55035	77285	36309	38884	39604
Pb	5E	2026839	2037519	2044955	2115391	2076855	2085151	2111398	2101503	2123573	2116237	2129344	2129334	2127675	2120370	2107159	2136701	2159677	2006384	2627845	2729494	2366185	2123445	1897072	1973367	1699448	1733893	1943046	2119277	2124294
Cd	1A1a	718812	726054	568152	483239	354553	237402	258744	214116	196586	182311	157727	170208	162161	141331	118980	77122	33498	40031	41539	31570	27582	30455	27144	30889	27052	27073	24512	29417	23560
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1206464	1239570	1076180	994427	839038	711661	729842	688575	657886	645961	637898	690474	656803	686418	685164	697424	672602	753593	730356	703457	724898	678340	659056	681805	666361	736265	764293	782166	795003
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1206464	1239570	1076180	994427	839038	711661	729842	688575	657886	645961	637898	690474	656803	686418	685164	697424	672602	753593	730356	703457	724898	678340	659056	681805	666361	736265	764293	782166	795003
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1206464	1239570	1076180	994427	839038	711661	729842	688575	657886	645961	637898	690474	656803	686418	685164	697424	672602	753593	730356	703457	724898	678340	659056	681805	666361	736265	764293	782166	795003
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183948	1939330	1731840	1809353	1343546	1126966	967173	574217	488482	502049	521792	364944	359251	309126	281565	316428	238198	218762	227070	155654	168355	172191	133414	155042	135641	119516
Hg	1A2f	105471	129056	140828	143375	145380	140091	152736	159290	163884	148747	136817	132756	121960	119386	127451	111431	108694	104732	73262	44620	32261	24724	13464	43956	37675	36812	47288	35790	36140
Hg	2C1	250195	249446	249380	269963	147591	147019	219515	207953	154018	123765	67318	40028	4373	4422	4779	17287	3622	3338	3329	2135	3453	3901	3618	3641	4462	3836	3942	4119	4507
Hg	5C1bv	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458	474	465	484	490	495	519
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3162655	3279508	2997965	2930175	2543770	2319680	2459866	1978334	1681106	1484522	1003990	873496	843992	866053	725820	690981	614550	585241	588448	447411	426150	376123	293329	329789	320648	282468	326657	283720	272203
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3162655	3279508	2997965	2930175	2543770	2319680	2459866	1978334	1681106	1484522	1003990	873496	843992	866053	725820	690981	614550	585241	588448	447411	426150	376123	293329	329789	320648	282468	326657	283720	272203
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3162655	3279508	2997965	2930175	2543770	2319680	2459866	1978334	1681106	1484522	1003990	873496	843992	866053	725820	690981	614550	585241	588448	447411	426150	376123	293329	329789	320648	282468	326657	283720	272203

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	2C3	1058	1058	1058	1058	1058	1058	877	1112	1154	997	1151	1168	1125	925	684	820	1096	1229	1268
HCB	1A3biii	234501	231564	224860	220371	238625	241571	247455	248735	250327	255874	245930	251451	254685	277232	289803	297410	308767	322453	306154	277490	288153	302434	283675	276187	297546	301534	315081	320317	328485
HCB	2C3	604700	604700	604700	604700	604700	604700	501220	635700	659560	569560	657440	667580	642580	528340	391140	468600	626300	702360	724400
HCB	3Df	4288822	13250038	7292525	3333132	3666797	3370332	3762780	11712022	7569458	3520630	335835	45138	14648	28275	44495	14685	15182	35725	12672	9790	58955	97050	30725	48445	46712	41972	57022	183322	183322
PCB	2C3	102799	102799	102799	102799	102799	102799	85207	108069	112125	96825	111765	113489	109239	89818	66494	79662	106471	119401	123148