Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3dii	12367	13903	13516	11876	10822	11393	12656	11846	10626	8558	9884	10750	12493	12536	10809	12765	12106	10679	13768	13230	11638	11513	12201	12614	10317	11238	12763	13453
NMVOC	2D3g	8142	9323	9126	7150	9252	9306	9476	8038	7635	7301	6958	6281	6438	5001	6043	6245	5657	6087	6066	5247	5054	4891	4962	4682	4403	4682	4278	4625
NMVOC	3B4h	4395	4099	4433	2984	3549	3591	3724	4295	4552	4055	4269	4473	4701	4583	4797	4954	5257	5506	5455	5282	5240	5351	5722	6062	6421	6577	6310	6631
SOx	1A3dii	6359	6444	4455	4705	4446	4999	3885	3396	2664	2624	2551	2477	2696	3066	3317	3281	3207	1993	1919	1926	1585	1507	1438	1462	1240	354	402	419
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981	1150	881	517	397	406	337	809
NH3	3B1b	4716	4715	4751	4573	4269	4190	4148	4009	3850	3819	4385	4542	4427	4313	4449	2831	2982	3594	3629	3481	3390	3480	3464	3545	3464	3421	3392	3348
CO	2A6	11381	11381	11381	11381	11381	11317	10920	10551	12058	12056	11430	10590	11582	11161	15598	12517	9290	6398	6544	2444	11	13	31	10	9	14	20	22

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8579662	6664533	4546315	5117947	3815484	3538245	3154560	2954688	2870112	2631303	2232853	2085835	1727155	472596	538118	407838	354816	364997	368719	325849	379024	350873	337547	359584	367744
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560	876120	525000	575400	634620	418320
Pb	1A3bi	91470437	71246972	64569984	27999624	72698	73330	73714	75668	76546	77053	77540	77035	79687	82978	86001	85897	88358	93660	94806	95234	98271	102508	106360	110315	114258	119377	121610	122409
Pb	1A3bii	6418147	4893109	4434639	1955395	22038	22070	22471	22936	23532	24495	25297	26001	26464	28060	30096	31545	34530	37790	38016	35829	35634	34230	33148	32016	30972	30965	30505	29994
Pb	1A4bi	483591	595594	564842	578227	535255	494495	465459	468142	429675	425266	485495	557451	572206	645899	683870	793160	874781	1038888	1011775	1008141	1079307	972673	937702	971757	944785	1088716	1144056	1155418
Pb	2A3	475600	461100	420500	407450	435580	406000	406000	883000	523000	562000	330000	172000	220000	272000	436000	148000	12000	16000	18000	18000	24000	25000	116000	22000	9700	45149	48472	43348
Pb	2C1	3281592	3225360	3220425	3322195	2377280	2021359	1103955	1168860	1104311	1138374	992613	1074016	327954	333990	360998	589778	274661	253756	252875	161675	261689	295337	273535	275663	337218	290478	298632	312028
Pb	2C5	1451242	1451242	1451242	1451725	1451725	1451725	1451242	1451242	1451242	1451242	1451242	1452484	1450964	1450147	1451196	1451589	1451150	1451541	1451339	1451794	1451460	1452157	1450948	1451226	1451438	1451714	1451092	1451392
Pb	2G	2854307	3759612	4075898	3595805	4352248	6638065	6102827	4829329	7805588	14737670	3303515	2609775	3238888	4131911	5840927	2529179	2901378	60568	52574	58017	40999	35702	68872	67695	55035	77285	35732	38846
Pb	5E	2026839	2037519	2044955	2115391	2076855	2085151	2111398	2101503	2123573	2116237	2129344	2129334	2127675	2120370	2107159	2136701	2159677	2006384	2627845	2729494	2366185	2123445	1897072	1973367	1699448	1733893	1943046	2119277
Cd	1A1a	718812	726054	568152	483239	354536	237378	258731	214096	196604	182308	157723	170204	162161	141331	118980	78026	33498	40031	41500	31717	27581	30470	27164	30886	27052	27265	24500	29472
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1206059	1239193	1075785	994052	838643	711395	729633	688628	657930	646045	637938	690680	656708	686347	684926	696981	672102	753124	729753	703146	724556	678011	658879	681599	665939	733509	757915	775168
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1206059	1239193	1075785	994052	838643	711395	729633	688628	657930	646045	637938	690680	656708	686347	684926	696981	672102	753124	729753	703146	724556	678011	658879	681599	665939	733509	757915	775168
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183948	1939302	1731814	1809336	1343518	1126995	967169	574212	488478	502049	521792	364944	361011	309126	281564	316412	238793	218761	227075	155582	168354	172198	133714	155035	135654
Hg	1A2f	105536	129198	140862	143427	145417	140126	152793	159324	163914	148777	136829	132766	121972	119397	127462	111443	108709	104745	73270	44627	32267	24735	13477	43968	37686	36824	46028	33837
Hg	1A3di(i)	26837	25356	29156	39675	46542	49854	14032	44839	49081	43422	39462	33503	30039	30808	24362	22766	27163	26889	25352	16503	20967	20416	16727	19634	22980	27209	24192	20343
Hg	1A4ai	123979	120822	113294	99725	92517	79699	68189	57348	30972	51001	29047	15929	31996	36647	42594	13808	5166	4052	4530	2808	5674	1782	1860	2042	1978	1720	2271	2018
Hg	2C1	250195	249445	249379	269963	147590	147018	219519	207945	154017	123778	67315	40027	4373	4422	4780	17288	3624	3339	3330	2135	3455	3901	3619	3641	4461	3835	3942	4119
Hg	5C1bv	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458	474	465	484	490	495
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3168745	3286059	3004498	2936520	2550084	2326222	2466904	1984971	1687115	1490357	1010786	880306	850802	872454	731313	697109	620355	590479	594239	452997	431255	381091	298303	334366	324528	287315	329023	284712
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3168745	3286059	3004498	2936520	2550084	2326222	2466904	1984971	1687115	1490357	1010786	880306	850802	872454	731313	697109	620355	590479	594239	452997	431255	381091	298303	334366	324528	287315	329023	284712

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	2C3	1058	1058	1058	1058	1058	1058	877	1112	1154	997	1151	1168	1125	925	684	820	1096	1229	1268
HCB	2C3	604700	604700	604700	604700	604700	604700	501220	635700	659560	569560	657440	667580	642580	528340	391140	468600	626300	702360	724400
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	27362211	44750518	27225436	20009004	9572699	8353656	8403085	9043786	7718952	6722927	5561406	5656205	3215237	3575882	3075741	3713723	3649980	3586331	3454351	2652548	2747432	2562294	2350272	2557634	2356059	2190962	2338440	2285661
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	27362211	44750518	27225436	20009004	9572699	8353656	8403085	9043786	7718952	6722927	5561406	5656205	3215237	3575882	3075741	3713723	3649980	3586331	3454351	2652548	2747432	2562294	2350272	2557634	2356059	2190962	2338440	2285661
PCB	1A3bi	64118838	57911344	50608666	41496763	192380	192181	194696	198507	201888	216349	232322	242495	263786	302150	342207	373096	422194	500329	547527	564624	623089	686363	755689	801280	829069	873378	893013	895385