Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3dii	12367	13903	13516	11876	10822	11393	12656	11846	10626	8558	9884	10750	12493	12536	10809	12765	12106	10679	13768	13230	11638	11513	12201	12614	10317	11436	12895
NMVOC	2D3g	8142	9323	9126	7150	9252	9318	9477	8044	7656	7305	6958	6282	6577	4958	6057	6248	6024	6124	5912	4985	5045	4814	4872	4601	4332	4742	4345
NMVOC	3B4h	4395	4099	4433	2984	3549	3591	3724	4295	4552	4055	4269	4473	4701	4583	4797	4954	5257	5506	5455	5282	5240	5351	5722	6062	6421	6577	6310
SOx	1A3dii	6359	6444	4455	4705	4446	4999	3885	3396	2664	2624	2551	2477	2696	3066	3317	3281	3207	1993	1919	1926	1585	1507	1438	1462	1240	357	406
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981	1150	881	517	397	406	337
NH3	3B1b	4716	4715	4751	4573	4269	4190	4148	4009	3850	3819	4385	4542	4427	4313	4449	2831	2982	3594	3629	3482	3391	3481	3465	3546	3465	3422	3424
CO	2A6	11381	11381	11381	11381	11381	11317	10920	10551	12058	12056	11430	10590	11582	11161	15598	12517	9290	6398	6544	2444	11	13	31	10	9	14	20

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8579662	6664677	4546473	5117982	3815624	3538257	3154560	2954688	2870112	2631302	2232852	2085835	1727155	471535	536690	407837	352985	361137	367038	323763	377343	350873	336448	358983
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560	876120	525000	575400	634620
Pb	1A3bi	94572248	73580381	66664183	28905092	76322	76888	77198	79158	80230	81141	81677	81426	83883	87068	89988	89386	91666	97963	101291	101627	104352	110379	115810	120295	124432	129321	130784
Pb	1A4bi	483591	595594	564842	578227	535255	494495	465459	468142	429675	425266	485495	557451	572206	645899	683870	793160	874781	1038888	1011775	1008141	1079326	972692	937721	971776	944804	1088735	1144075
Pb	2A3	475600	461100	420500	407450	435580	406000	406000	883000	523000	562000	330000	172000	220000	272000	436000	148000	12000	16000	18000	18000	24000	25000	116000	22000	9700	45149	48472
Pb	2C1	3281592	3225360	3220425	3322195	2377280	2021359	1103955	1168860	1104311	1138374	992613	1074016	327954	333990	360998	589778	274661	253756	252875	161675	261689	295337	273535	275663	337218	290478	298632
Pb	2C5	336540	336540	336540	426000	426000	426000	336540	336540	336540	336540	336540	566580	284994	133764	328020	400866	319500	391920	354432	438780	377010	506088	282012	333558	372750	423870	308850
Pb	2G	2854307	3759612	4075898	3595805	4352248	6638065	6102827	4829329	7805588	14737670	3303515	2609775	3238888	4131911	5840927	2529179	2901378	60568	52574	58017	40999	35702	68872	67695	54926	81529	37902
Pb	5E	2024379	2035879	2043315	2113751	2075215	2083511	2109758	2099863	2121113	2114597	2127704	2127694	2126035	2119550	2107159	2137521	2170337	2008844	2627845	2729494	2366185	2123445	1897072	1970087	1693708	1728153	1937306
Cd	1A1a	718812	726054	568152	483239	354549	237395	258734	214107	196607	182308	157723	170204	162161	141331	118980	78026	33414	39917	41500	31571	27273	30336	26998	30752	27052	27195	24481
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1176909	1209015	1046816	962877	808518	677588	695787	654075	613559	603785	596261	647422	620014	642501	639234	650788	625136	712590	692132	659524	691982	646404	621377	642272	627159	698655	723556
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1176909	1209015	1046816	962877	808518	677588	695787	654075	613559	603785	596261	647422	620014	642501	639234	650788	625136	712590	692132	659524	691982	646404	621377	642272	627159	698655	723556
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183948	1939284	1731789	1809307	1343495	1126961	967132	574188	488446	502016	521762	364910	360989	308748	281067	316377	238161	217509	226530	154904	167809	172198	133732	155387
Hg	1A2f	105535	129195	140860	143424	145413	140123	152788	169420	163909	148777	136829	131559	123035	121413	127463	111428	108710	104746	73270	44627	32266	24733	13475	42819	33823	32927	43141
Hg	1A3di(i)	26837	25356	29156	39675	46542	49854	14032	44839	49081	43422	39462	33503	30039	30808	24362	22766	27163	26889	25352	16503	20967	20416	16727	19634	22980	27349	24192
Hg	1A4ai	123979	120822	113294	99725	92517	79699	68189	57348	30972	51001	29047	15929	31996	36647	42594	13808	5510	4515	4530	3402	6333	2327	2536	2600	2034	1743	2306
Hg	2B10a	12272	15865	15119	14984	13153	15933	12611	14238	14374	13696	13492	11933	12195	11469	9287	11124	9229	11136	12100	504	1490	1400	10000	1000	1000	1000	13000
Hg	2C1	250195	249445	249379	269963	147590	147018	219519	207945	154017	123778	67315	40027	4373	4422	4780	17288	3624	3339	3330	2135	3455	3901	3619	3641	4461	3835	3942
Hg	5C1bv	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458	474	465	484	490
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3164510	3281655	3000286	2931921	2545647	2321198	2461908	1989779	1680450	1484031	1004558	872562	846421	867920	724453	690150	613294	584375	588550	446310	426593	376469	288774	328564	318810	281046	324284
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3164510	3281655	3000286	2931921	2545647	2321198	2461908	1989779	1680450	1484031	1004558	872562	846421	867920	724453	690150	613294	584375	588550	446310	426593	376469	288774	328564	318810	281046	324284

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	2C3	1058	1058	1058	1058	1058	1058	877	1112	1154	997	1151	1168	1125	925	684	820	1096	1229	1268
HCB	2C3	604700	604700	604700	604700	604700	604700	501220	635700	659560	569560	657440	667580	642580	528340	391140	468600	626300	702360	724400
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	27354850	44743289	27218078	20002694	9566288	8343568	8398400	9039516	7713852	6718985	5558719	5654271	3213477	3573956	3074636	3712184	3648331	3580354	3452682	2651871	2744624	2558579	2336682	2553688	2349684	2176038	2323621
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	27354850	44743289	27218078	20002694	9566288	8343568	8398400	9039516	7713852	6718985	5558719	5654271	3213477	3573956	3074636	3712184	3648331	3580354	3452682	2651871	2744624	2558579	2336682	2553688	2349684	2176038	2323621
PCB	1A3bi	66308166	59823639	52265123	42852782	214111	212839	214576	217894	222532	240592	257376	267716	287951	326412	365998	393651	438228	520053	583500	597296	657777	735780	818581	879309	910463	958853	967023