Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A4bi	4488	4803	4462	5020	4641	4617	4877	4489	4346	4224	4028	4342	4216	4346	4333	4522	4579	4798	4680	4639	5031	4408	4177	4155	3338	4114
NMVOC	1A3bi	42823	45204	44645	44377	42149	40180	39066	35553	33005	29147	26335	24794	22290	20792	17783	16316	13944	12390	11125	9742	8967	7235	6402	5647	4815	4528
NMVOC	2D3g	8142	9323	9126	7150	9252	9318	9477	8044	7656	7305	6958	6282	6577	4958	6057	6248	6024	6124	5912	4985	5045	4814	4872	4601	4332	4742
NMVOC	3B4h	4395	4099	4433	2984	3549	3591	3724	4295	4552	4055	4269	4473	4701	4583	4797	4954	5257	5506	5455	5282	5240	5351	5722	6101	6434	6601
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	203936	212219	213912	205495	209845	204470	205223	194872	185384	178129	173792	165591	161263	155300	152335	148701	144889	141087	136031	128497	125334	118014	115003	115066	106529	109477
SOx	1A3di(i)	41317	33277	30084	58492	58965	65049	61075	55822	46756	49282	55182	43830	30036	30982	26540	34283	50417	25652	19326	7383	8200	8853	5136	7140	8765	1453
SOx	1A3dii	6397	5075	3467	4368	4926	5536	4346	3588	2217	1979	1770	1653	1498	1893	2223	2245	2337	1591	1464	1542	1393	1338	1290	1248	1169	233
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981	1150	881	517	397	406
SOx	5E	572	590	640	565	568	654	661	612	549	589	579	575	559	629	546	567	583	695	655	634	558	611	548	531	916	916
NH3	3B1b	4716	4715	4751	4573	4269	4190	4148	4009	3850	3819	4385	4542	4427	4313	4449	2831	2982	3594	3629	3482	3391	3485	3469	3550	3470	3422
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	124674	120502	117946	115827	112810	106247	102896	102563	102757	97553	95714	93972	92494	91655	91080	82218	78566	77808	76104	71963	70717	69480	67800	64547	64450	65300
CO	1A3bi	427487	446055	432840	420202	389238	369878	359117	323567	301093	265589	241457	231154	211251	201553	176410	168120	148177	134265	123643	110469	104009	85597	77854	70460	61805	59373
CO	2A6	11974	11974	11974	11974	11974	11930	11495	11117	12648	12678	11955	10590	11386	10332	15598	11605	9093	6398	6544	2444	11	13	31	10	9	14

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A2gvii	892	863	826	791	750	717	689	665	631	454	553	515	479	442	406	368

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8577233	6658564	4544800	5118026	3815574	3538244	3154560	2954688	2870112	2631302	2273763	2094151	1699748	471535	536690	407837	352927	361139	367039	323763	379011	347356	330050
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560	876120	525000	575400
Pb	1A3bi	93160814	72544835	65768167	28526871	75537	76097	76404	78355	79424	80324	80844	80488	82811	85857	88626	87990	90025	95710	98705	98938	101726	108092	113685	118186	122536	128267
Pb	1A4bi	550053	662035	631185	640190	592800	547594	512857	518867	478817	470106	525961	595182	609978	683637	721604	830915	912613	1076672	1049565	1045910	1117094	1010279	975352	1017319	967167	1124749
Pb	2A3	475600	461100	420500	407450	435580	406000	406000	883000	523000	562000	330000	172000	220000	272000	436000	148000	12000	16000	18000	18000	24000	25000	116000	22000	9700	45149
Pb	2C1	3722021	3587064	3575220	3633268	2754272	2443262	1473492	1583064	1526146	1535098	1445671	1496838	787090	798296	862856	1040035	655135	604384	602534	385901	624485	704900	653509	657993	805640	696318
Pb	2C5	336540	336540	336540	426000	426000	426000	336540	336540	336540	336540	336540	566580	284994	133764	328020	400866	319500	391920	354432	438780	377010	506088	282012	333558	372750	372750
Pb	2G	2854216	3759529	4075823	3595742	4352190	6638012	6102777	4829281	7805543	14737629	3303483	2609742	3238855	4131872	5840878	2529115	2901249	60375	52381	57873	40757	35418	68568	68398	55621	85624
Cd	1A1a	718812	726054	568152	482409	352496	236860	258755	214123	196604	182308	157723	170204	162161	142927	119302	76867	33414	39917	41500	31551	27273	30336	26998	30885	26812	26776
Cd	1A1b	21271	22826	25307	25953	27242	32207	32837	25648	22716	23430	23499	23933	23047	24356	23640	22384	23367	23351	20854	21908	20560	19851	21833	21509	22002	23443
Cd	1A3bi	18713	19994	21059	21633	22406	22602	22696	23310	23644	23754	23750	23536	24052	24593	24998	24478	24594	25516	25633	25360	25354	26136	26717	27314	28154	29185
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1094620	1127145	965204	886336	738219	618078	645617	595901	556680	553707	553138	607890	580302	603023	599397	609893	583271	666110	646533	616827	649467	604074	579989	604518	580440	657010
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1094620	1127145	965204	886336	738219	618078	645617	595901	556680	553707	553138	607890	580302	603023	599397	609893	583271	666110	646533	616827	649467	604074	579989	604518	580440	657010
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183786	1938869	1731672	1809348	1343531	1126957	967132	574188	488447	502015	524223	365454	358736	308748	281067	316377	238157	217509	226531	154904	168350	171864	133209
Hg	1A1b	20093	20997	22101	22815	24246	30112	30823	24200	21720	22449	22308	22635	21821	23540	22677	21762	22811	22613	20049	21255	20152	19392	21103	20915	21664	22883
Hg	1A2f	105526	129308	140930	143426	145392	140071	152753	169399	163882	148826	136897	131617	123122	121467	127455	111454	108752	104775	73255	44634	32256	24710	13451	42803	33812	32922
Hg	1A3bi	13492	14404	15098	15494	16044	16199	16368	16790	17118	17148	16989	16705	16820	17011	16960	16566	16492	16893	16674	16145	15606	15119	14810	14763	14823	15060
Hg	1A3di(i)	26838	25358	29158	39677	46543	49855	14032	44839	49081	43426	39467	33511	30045	30810	24364	22768	27166	26891	25354	16506	20970	20419	16729	19637	22982	27458
Hg	1A4ai	124046	120879	113335	99761	92570	79748	68236	57397	30999	51031	29068	15940	32024	34230	42075	13112	4896	4067	3753	2810	5676	1784	1869	1913	2224	1700
Hg	2C1	246000	246000	246000	267000	144000	143000	216000	204000	150000	120000	63000	36000				13000
Hg	5C1bv	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458	474	465	484
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3172055	3286805	3006710	2939402	2555434	2333787	2479283	1998943	1687063	1492173	1012108	882191	854691	878509	736022	699599	626463	595489	603748	463831	441772	390475	304554	344252	333791	297218
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3172055	3286805	3006710	2939402	2555434	2333787	2479283	1998943	1687063	1492173	1012108	882191	854691	878509	736022	699599	626463	595489	603748	463831	441772	390475	304554	344252	333791	297218

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	27379942	44764344	27239331	20026731	9602100	8388984	8453400	9099830	7778177	6788678	5634151	5735585	3298974	3665973	3173441	3817714	3760224	3699039	3572178	2725819	2847458	2682868	2465956	2661916	2462907	2329677
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	27379942	44764344	27239331	20026731	9602100	8388984	8453400	9099830	7778177	6788678	5634151	5735585	3298974	3665973	3173441	3817714	3760224	3699039	3572178	2725819	2847458	2682868	2465956	2661916	2462907	2329677
PCB	1A3bi	65320787	58983978	51564796	42294039	213672	212397	214130	217445	222081	240134	256914	267277	287434	325815	365316	392939	441066	528162	596107	612901	677911	760097	840883	894909	918095	962318