Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: DK      Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A3bi	65328	67946	67831	66084	63710	59320	55199	51968	47921	43540	39811	36674	34392	32216	29784	26447	23780	22492	20954	19344	18514	18190	17532	16923	16364
NOx	1A4bi	4488	4803	4462	5020	4641	4617	4877	4489	4346	4224	4028	4342	4216	4346	4333	4522	4579	4687	4557	4639	4921	4246	3952	3838	3244
NMVOC	1A3bi	42406	44739	44170	43890	41652	39686	38583	35101	32579	28764	25995	24471	21990	20512	17539	16097	13749	12209	10967	9609	8860	7162	6351	5611	4755
NMVOC	1A3bv	29132	29433	29607	27463	26759	24162	20974	19717	16806	14846	10024	8620	7727	6593	5622	4769	3998	3296	2646	2262	1817	1688	1464	1410	1451
NMVOC	2D3g	8142	9323	9126	7150	9252	9318	9477	8044	7656	7305	6958	6282	6577	4958	6057	6248	6024	6124	5912	4985	5045	4814	4872	4601	4332
NMVOC	3B4h	4395	4099	4433	2984	3549	3591	3724	4295	4552	4055	4269	4473	4701	4583	4797	4954	5257	5506	5455	5282	5240	5351	5722	6101	6434
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	203121	211347	213014	204569	208861	203449	204248	193922	184480	177258	173064	164916	160680	154783	151870	148298	144549	140746	135685	128188	125031	117754	114740	114333	105785
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981	1150	881	517	397
SOx	5E	572	590	640	565	568	654	661	612	549	589	579	575	559	629	546	567	583	695	655	634	558	611	548	531	916
NH3	3B1b	4716	4715	4751	4573	4269	4190	4148	4009	3850	3819	4385	4542	4427	4313	4449	2831	2982	3594	3629	3482	3391	3485	3469	3550	3470
NH3	3I	10191	8643	7673	7577	8101	6635	5061	4477	3698	2076	2467	1618	940	803	526	260					237	237
CO	1A3bi	431022	450358	436461	422928	391381	371580	360681	324343	301419	265396	240959	230473	210315	200486	175230	166935	146923	132881	122197	109027	102553	84263	76561	69175	60067
CO	2A6	11974	11974	11974	11974	11974	11930	11495	11117	12648	12678	11955	10590	11386	10332	15598	11605	9093	6398	6544	2444	11	13	31	10	9

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	2C1	33	36	10	1634	1763	1520	1629	1811	1685	737	1328	11	10	10	12
PM10	2C1	98	98	66	2641	2850	2458	2624	2910	2710	1193	2145	62	57	58	70

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8577233	6658708	4544958	5118062	3815715	3538257	3154560	2938929	2870112	2631302	2232852	2085820	1705729	471535	536299	407837	352927	361139	366968	323800	381140	347194
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560	876120	525000
Pb	1A3bi	93301523	72650715	65865862	28570504	75417	75942	76223	78172	79246	80163	80704	80249	82570	85604	88360	87745	89777	95394	99111	99894	103062	109087	112022	114635	118453
Pb	1A4bi	550053	662035	631185	640190	592800	547594	512857	518867	478817	470106	525961	595182	609978	683637	721604	830915	912613	1076646	1049537	1045910	1117068	1010242	975301	988995	931558
Pb	2A3	475600	461100	420500	407450	435580	406000	406000	883000	523000	562000	330000	172000	220000	272000	436000	148000	12000	16000	18000	18000	24000	25000	116000	22000	9700
Pb	2C1	3722021	3587064	3575220	3633268	2754272	2443262	1473492	1583064	1526146	1535098	1445671	1496838	787090	798296	862856	1040035	655135	604384	602534	385901	624485	704900	653509	657993	805611
Pb	2C5	336540	336540	336540	426000	426000	426000	336540	336540	336540	336540	336540	566580	284994	133764	328020	400866	319500	391920	354432	438780	377010	506088	282012	333558	372750
Pb	2G	2854216	3759529	4075823	3595742	4352190	6638012	6102777	4829281	7805543	14737629	3303483	2609742	3238855	4131872	5840878	2529115	2901249	60375	52381	57873	40757	35418	68568	68398	55621
Cd	1A1a	718812	726054	568152	482409	352508	236877	258758	214134	196607	182308	156929	170204	162161	141331	118975	77120	33413	39837	41500	31551	27273	30321	27002	31043	26800
Cd	1A1b	21271	22826	25307	25953	27242	32207	32837	25648	22716	23430	23499	23933	23047	24356	23640	22384	23367	23351	20854	21908	20560	19851	21833	21509	22002
Cd	1A3bi	18656	19939	21010	21589	22362	22551	22641	23257	23594	23710	23712	23480	23995	24535	24938	24422	24537	25447	25681	25499	25555	26283	26430	26715	27440
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1095015	1127552	965629	886769	738651	618498	646047	596344	557138	554177	553591	608312	580712	603419	599774	610329	583793	666850	647233	617387	650204	604865	580473	591628	564043
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1095015	1127552	965629	886769	738651	618498	646047	596344	557138	554177	553591	608312	580712	603419	599774	610329	583793	666850	647233	617387	650204	604865	580473	591628	564043
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183786	1938883	1731682	1809348	1343545	1126959	967130	570888	488444	502011	521757	364904	359222	308744	281032	316373	238153	217506	226520	154979	168580	171942
Hg	1A1b	20093	20997	22101	22815	24246	30112	30823	24200	21720	22449	22308	22635	21821	23540	22677	21762	22811	22613	20049	21255	20152	19392	21103	20915	21664
Hg	1A2f	105588	129410	141038	143496	145447	140233	152818	169455	163859	148953	136973	131704	123217	121549	127493	111361	108576	104617	73240	44584	32160	23060	13664	42829	33574
Hg	1A3di(i)	26838	25358	29158	39677	46543	49855	14032	44839	49081	43426	39467	33511	30045	30810	24364	22768	27166	26891	25354	16506	20970	20419	16729	19637	22982
Hg	1A4ai	124046	120879	113335	99761	92572	79754	68240	57398	31000	51032	32367	15942	32029	36696	42625	15591	5531	4534	4538	3408	6336	2332	2547	2060	2017
Hg	2B10a	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	12100	504	1490	1400	10000
Hg	2C1	246000	246000	246000	267000	144000	143000	216000	204000	150000	120000	63000	36000				13000
Hg	5C1bv	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458	474	465
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3171699	3286443	3006348	2938941	2554973	2333324	2478922	1998583	1686702	1491813	1011747	881577	854387	878371	735669	699167	626122	595100	603372	463358	441371	389938	303859	342553	331727
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3171699	3286443	3006348	2938941	2554973	2333324	2478922	1998583	1686702	1491813	1011747	881577	854387	878371	735669	699167	626122	595100	603372	463358	441371	389938	303859	342553	331727

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
HCB	1A2gvii	62873	63091	63197	63230	63299	63864	64364	64949	65502	65994	66504	67229	67903	68695	69194	72764	78707	85496	87616	64362	81360	79025	78875	79075	78800
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	27394307	44779053	27254393	20042092	9617704	8405078	8470020	9116918	7795729	6806273	5651034	5751732	3314670	3681252	3188142	3833649	3778676	3720856	3595033	2743227	2869712	2706266	2490657	2717083	2521788
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	27394307	44779053	27254393	20042092	9617704	8405078	8470020	9116918	7795729	6806273	5651034	5751732	3314670	3681252	3188142	3833649	3778676	3720856	3595033	2743227	2869712	2706266	2490657	2717083	2521788
PCB	1A2gvii	5555486	5545734	5528473	5505495	5413835	5462152	5504872	5554880	5602223	5644317	5687945	5749965	5807569	5875352	5917992	6223339	6731584	7312259	7493640	5504730	6958558	6758838	6746019	6763068	6739590
PCB	1A3bi	65419826	59070469	51641760	42359144	213756	212149	213571	216734	221296	239376	256355	265601	285745	324007	363343	391170	439226	525440	603179	627118	696947	774149	821156	852035	868918