Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3bi	65513	68050	67918	66183	63885	59517	55404	52178	48144	43768	40017	36878	34674	32651	30318	27014	24367	23279	21777	20150	19385	19314	18722	18094
NMVOC	1A3bi	42447	44763	44189	43911	41687	39724	38622	35137	32616	28798	26022	24495	22017	20548	17575	16131	13779	12249	10999	9637	8888	7201	6396	5640
NMVOC	1A3bv	29132	29433	29607	27463	26759	24162	20974	19717	16806	14846	10024	8620	7727	6592	5622	4769	3998	3297	2646	2262	1817	1690	1466	1410
NMVOC	2D3g	8142	9323	9126	7150	9252	9318	9477	8044	7656	7305	6958	6282	6577	4958	6057	6248	6024	6124	5912	4985	5045	4814	4873	4602
NMVOC	3B4h	4395	4099	4433	2984	3549	3591	3724	4295	4552	4055	4269	4473	4701	4583	4797	4954	5257	5506	5455	5282	5240	5351	5722	6101
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	203780	212070	213791	205376	209545	204026	204966	194855	185427	178367	174136	165772	162170	156070	153034	149286	144889	141151	136090	128529	125381	118572	115702	114431
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	203780	212070	213791	205376	209545	204026	204966	194855	185427	178367	174136	165772	162170	156070	153034	149286	144889	141151	136090	128529	125381	118572	115702	114431
SOx	1A4ci	3189	3269	2982	2885	2735	2789	2946	2210	1938	1664	1566	1596	1277	1329	1392	1588	1671	1684	1544	725	1240	1108	1063	1161
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981	1150	881	517
NH3	3B1b	4720	4716	4767	4650	4355	4250	4253	4140	3960	3920	4538	4626	4522	4384	4505	2852	3027	3631	3646	3507	3412	3529	3526	3629
NH3	3B4gii	1994	2078	2216	2299	2414	2309	2205	2267	2426	2629	2680	2729	2717	2665	2844	2519	2250	1947	1926	1839	1891	1712	1682	869
NH3	3I	10191	8643	7673	7577	8101	6635	5061	4477	3698	2076	2467	1618	940	803	526	260					237	237
CO	1A3bi	431217	450468	436550	423028	391550	371763	360866	324518	301589	265551	241085	230581	210437	200646	175391	167080	147049	133105	122327	109141	102666	84480	76865	69286
CO	2A6	11974	11974	11974	11974	11974	11930	11495	11117	12648	12678	11955	10590	11386	11125	16169	12176	9093	6398	6544	5208	11	13	31	10

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	8614	7036	4913	4434	3918	5675	7770	2330	1845	808	920	960	631	822
PM10	1A3di(i)	8658	7072	4938	4456	3938	5703	7809	2341	1854	812	925	965	634	827
TSP	1A3di(i)	8745	7143	4988	4501	3978	5761	7888	2365	1873	820	934	975	641	835
BC	1A3di(i)	1138	937	681	621	539	741	993	323	269	140	159	159	119	146

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8577233	6659626	4545182	5118027	3815575	3538244	3154560	2938929	2870112	2631302	2232853	2085821	1705730	471535	536299	407837	352824	361139	366968	323837	390257
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560	876120
Pb	1A3bi	93303130	72651690	65866714	28571286	76607	77287	77608	79582	80720	81625	81997	81477	84201	88033	91266	90716	92863	99599	103641	104438	108013	115648	119098	121711
Pb	1A4bi	550053	662035	631185	640190	592800	547594	512857	518867	478817	470106	525961	595182	609978	683637	721604	830915	912586	1076646	1049537	1045911	1117068	1010242	975297	960686
Pb	2A3	475600	461100	420500	407450	435580	406000	406000	883000	523000	562000	330000	172000	220000	272000	436000	148000	12000	16000	18000	18000	24000	25000	116000	22000
Pb	2C1	3708600	3689880	3671160	3786160	2775440	2369440	1470720	1485720	1420760	1474200	1401226	1452069	741823	792905	857723	1023005	627088	569215	556052	316341	557750	635516	574123	589963
Pb	2C5	336540	336540	336540	426000	426000	426000	336540	336540	336540	336540	336540	566580	284994	133764	328020	400866	319500	391920	354432	438780	377010	506088	282012	333558
Pb	2G	2854053	3759377	4075667	3595592	4352041	6637862	6102632	4829134	7805396	14737480	3303483	2609742	3238855	4131872	5840878	2529115	2901249	60375	52381	57873	40757	35214	67746	68046
Cd	1A1b	21271	22826	25307	25953	27242	32207	32837	25648	22716	23430	23499	23933	23047	24356	23640	22384	23367	23351	21857	22531	20560	21604	22940	22445
Cd	1A3bi	18863	20055	21108	21700	22560	22775	22871	23491	23839	23953	23927	23684	24266	24938	25421	24916	25050	26152	26434	26254	26378	27383	27625	27891
Cd	2C1	53420	53056	52692	53342	38978	34628	31264	33914	32012	34040	30238	32224	14424	17339	18751	23496	14110	13201	12796	7017	12408	13954	12289	13023
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1094953	1129666	967593	889854	738954	617188	646231	594699	554563	552896	552493	606128	577300	602275	598053	607058	584276	667293	648809	617411	650063	606647	582153	580639
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1094953	1129666	967593	889854	738954	617188	646231	594699	554563	552896	552493	606128	577300	602275	598053	607058	584276	667293	648809	617411	650063	606647	582153	580639
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183786	1938955	1731703	1809359	1343536	1126963	967136	570892	488449	502018	521764	364911	359230	308750	281037	316378	238150	217513	226529	155023	170976
Hg	1A1b	20093	20997	22101	22815	24246	30112	30823	24200	21720	22449	22308	22635	21821	23540	22677	21762	22811	22613	21053	21878	20152	21145	22210	21851
Hg	1A2f	105588	129410	141038	143496	145447	140233	152818	169455	163859	148953	136973	131704	123217	121549	127493	111361	108576	104617	73240	44178	32160	23060	13664	42828
Hg	1A3di(i)	26838	25358	29158	39677	46543	49855	14032	44839	49081	43426	39467	33511	30045	30810	24364	22768	27166	26891	25354	16506	20970	20419	16729	19637
Hg	1A4ai	124038	120869	113304	99726	92570	79748	68236	57397	30996	51026	32370	15947	32030	36701	42632	15598	5546	4543	4548	3417	6344	2338	2489	2284
Hg	1A4ci	22750	26141	20775	19630	20878	17282	14827	13089	10475	8732	11210	12358	9242	11792	13561	16193	16679	17918	15975	4884	12165	10985	10772	13106
Hg	2B10a	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	12100	504	1490	1400	10000
Hg	5C1bv	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458	474
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3171697	3286441	3006347	2918940	2554895	2333297	2478932	1998586	1686707	1491815	1011759	881592	854404	889266	747428	709239	636992	607198	615523	468831	449574	400684	316004	354984
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3171697	3286441	3006347	2918940	2554895	2333297	2478932	1998586	1686707	1491815	1011759	881592	854404	889266	747428	709239	636992	607198	615523	468831	449574	400684	316004	354984

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
HCB	1A2gvii	62873	63091	63197	63230	63299	63864	64364	64949	65502	65994	66504	67229	67903	68695	69194	72764	78707	85496	87616	64362	81360	79025	78875	79075
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	27394233	44779624	27254926	20042941	9617824	8404668	8470012	9116318	7795006	6805734	5650546	5751187	3314044	3680608	3187427	3832810	3777708	3719756	3592301	2742793	2867878	2705748	2510671	2720465
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	27394233	44779624	27254926	20042941	9617824	8404668	8470012	9116318	7795006	6805734	5650546	5751187	3314044	3680608	3187427	3832810	3777708	3719756	3592301	2742793	2867878	2705748	2510671	2720465
PCB	1A2gvii	5555486	5545734	5528473	5505495	5413835	5462152	5504872	5554880	5602223	5644317	5687945	5749965	5807569	5875352	5917992	6223339	6731584	7312259	7493640	5504730	6958558	6758838	6746019	6763068
PCB	1A3bi	65435167	59079210	51649233	42367575	228413	228647	230664	234165	239807	258106	273186	281805	307252	356152	401644	430736	480678	582459	664702	687639	761947	856954	907791	939053