Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A3bi	65510	68046	67915	66179	63881	59513	55400	52173	48139	43763	40012	36872	34667	32642	30307	27004	24371	23359	22085	20585	19951	19933	19535
NOx	1A3bii	7313	7623	7672	7946	8446	8344	8293	8186	8193	8161	8182	8292	8356	8788	9256	9533	10202	10722	9559	8509	7989	7358	6687
NMVOC	1A3bv	29132	29433	29607	27463	26759	24162	20974	19717	16806	14846	10024	8620	7727	6592	5622	4769	3998	3298	2649	2265	1820	1688	1463
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	164262	172608	173208	165308	171663	166147	167220	156817	147388	142175	138319	129485	126623	120631	117809	114339	108672	104005	99343	91983	88626	82010	79106
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	164262	172608	173208	165308	171663	166147	167220	156817	147388	142175	138319	129485	126623	120631	117809	114339	108672	104005	99343	91983	88626	82010	79106
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	164262	172608	173208	165308	171663	166147	167220	156817	147388	142175	138319	129485	126623	120631	117809	114339	108672	104005	99343	91983	88626	82010	79106
SOx	1A4ci	3191	3272	2984	2887	2738	2790	2947	2210	1938	1665	1566	1597	1277	1329	1393	1589	1738	1662	1325	618	1240	1108	1023
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	390	787	928	987	481	1019	1179	889
NH3	4B1b	10469	10240	10164	9710	8926	8551	8413	8095	7640	7566	7699	7692	7404	7134	6904	5218	5592	6445	6406	6401	6037	6173	6144
CO	1A3bi	431213	450464	436546	423024	391546	371759	360862	324514	301585	265548	241082	230578	210434	200641	175387	167079	147053	133106	122310	109132	102701	84379	77006

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	8614	7036	4913	4434	3918	5675	7770	2330	1845	808	920	960	631
PM10	1A3di(i)	8658	7072	4938	4456	3938	5703	7809	2341	1854	812	925	965	634
TSP	1A3di(i)	8745	7143	4988	4501	3978	5761	7888	2365	1873	820	934	975	641

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8577233	6660378	4545182	5118026	3815574	3538244	3154560	2938929	2870112	2631302	2232852	2085821	1705730	472494	536297	407816	352722	361139	363546	319606
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040	775740	847560
Pb	1A3bi	93303108	72651666	65866689	28571260	76578	77257	77579	79551	80689	81592	81963	81440	84159	87983	91209	90665	92839	99804	104624	105563	108934	115560	119015
Pb	1A4bi	666460	797397	770551	794365	742363	700483	677552	682265	623563	621103	716080	822473	844851	954752	1011172	1174141	1295128	1538273	1497453	1492022	1596835	1438945	1424878
Pb	2A7d	1164000					881618	818671	296750	552880	700064	456486	290382	277357	364911	545120	246989	123261	145251	134989	106106	117007	114509	188979
Pb	2C1	1414544	1395824	1377104	1418836	1459848	1435272	1358720	1248720	990660	1285800	1172226	1550869	741823	792905	857723	1058755	627088	569215	556052	316341	557750	635516	574123
Pb	3D3	2854053	3759377	4075667	3595592	4352041	6637862	6102632	4829134	7805396	14737480	3303483	2609742	3238855	4131872	5840878	2529115	2901249	60375	52381	57873	40757	35214	67746
Cd	1A1b	21271	22826	25307	25953	27242	32207	32837	25648	22716	23430	23499	23933	23047	24356	23640	22384	23367	23284	21857	22531	20560	21604	22940
Cd	1A3bi	18859	20051	21104	21696	22555	22770	22866	23486	23834	23948	23922	23678	24259	24930	25411	24907	25046	26185	26591	26433	26524	27342	27601
Cd	1A4ai	30035	28645	24700	20799	18371	13290	11980	10926	6209	11197	5684	8433	2823	7677	1666	2141	974	1005	810	351	404	395	566
Cd	1A4ci	11984	12422	11498	11043	10819	10606	10406	9572	8841	7817	7234	7129	6086	6120	6288	6966	7516	7231	6059	3910	5933	5501	5198
Cd	6D	5339	5401	5513	5527	5551	5779	5878	5782	5733	5840	5872	5854	5800	5880	5699	5826	6029	5099	6931	7107	6139	5483	4854
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183786	1939015	1731703	1809348	1343531	1126957	967132	570889	488447	502015	521762	364909	359228	308940	281035	316375	238011	217510	226453	154726
Hg	1A1b	20093	20997	22101	22815	24246	30112	30823	24200	21720	22449	22308	22635	21821	23540	22677	21762	22811	22592	21053	21878	20152	21194	22233
Hg	1A3di(i)	26838	25358	29158	39677	46543	49855	14032	44839	49081	43426	39467	33511	30045	30810	24364	22768	27166	26891	25354	16506	20970	20419	16729
Hg	1A4ai	124038	120869	113304	99726	92586	79762	68240	57413	30996	51026	29063	15937	32021	36691	42620	14410	5186	4065	3977	2808	5871	1966	1982
Hg	2B5a	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	4847	504	4847	1491	12545
Hg	6Cd	45869	45505	46388	48334	47851	49065	48410	47995	46618	47333	46607	46670	47601	46995	46500	45608	46140	46736	46761	47455	47054	462	458
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	3068171	3182480	2901639	2824862	2576329	2353916	2414939	1876639	1595568	1419557	1036471	1027252	851514	885966	743907	755944	633079	601554	602775	464214	447028	395566	314478
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3068171	3182480	2901639	2824862	2576329	2353916	2414939	1876639	1595568	1419557	1036471	1027252	851514	885966	743907	755944	633079	601554	602775	464214	447028	395566	314478
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	3068171	3182480	2901639	2824862	2576329	2353916	2414939	1876639	1595568	1419557	1036471	1027252	851514	885966	743907	755944	633079	601554	602775	464214	447028	395566	314478

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
HCB	1A2fii	62502	62717	62817	62843	62913	63495	64000	64612	65194	65714	66257	67012	67714	68542	69059	72632	78569	85343	87422	64293	81272	78985	78832
HCB	2C1	1968920	1968816	1968712	2143012	2317308	2298008	2127235	2614604	2398654	2555552	2023268	2312485	4121	4179	4521	803996	3258	2911	2856	1656	2915	3343	3057
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	26766204	44151595	26626860	19415219	8980941	7757231	7736646	8422225	7060936	6165287	5559244	5639344	3193466	3532236	3099387	3812356	3688749	3624740	3304523	2677185	2775377	2598324	2408109
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	26766204	44151595	26626860	19415219	8980941	7757231	7736646	8422225	7060936	6165287	5559244	5639344	3193466	3532236	3099387	3812356	3688749	3624740	3304523	2677185	2775377	2598324	2408109
HCB	UNFCCCTOTAL	26766204	44151595	26626860	19415219	8980941	7757231	7736646	8422225	7060936	6165287	5559244	5639344	3193466	3532236	3099387	3812356	3688749	3624740	3304523	2677185	2775377	2598324	2408109