Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	47653	46689	49852	53371	56032	59238	62294	65062	68981	75380	80810	78789	78923	80833	84114	98433	103922	108745	110070	108336	107818	102555	113318	116534	111715	111941	123126	137133	141732	140714	65700	87972
NOx	1A3bii	32817	35548	38062	41268	40772	43898	45409	46712	47326	48391	47527	48033	49143	49977	51249	52179	52646	54466	56132	56912	57174	58831	57932	59841	63919	66194	68187	67262	61009	56484	48973	48529
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75921	69313	66909	70843	57581	70375	63495	69113	60428	65326	69151	57078	59286	58407	58465	57081	60054	58804	56851
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	35	30	32	30	31	34	42	49	58	54	59	68	71	67	75	100
NMVOC	2D3d	540000	520000	480000	480000	330817	372144	373196	386065	398934	356444	309381	300935	310800	298042	343071	314998	318619	286237	266963	216280	245636	235773	244994	223192	185962	199489	194481	201271	180943	173724	178539	194363
NH3	3Da1	78825	71266	77101	70945	68858	69556	73052	75010	78698	82125	85639	87032	87231	87640	86100	86364	84428	85855	88351	85750	88428	83960	88044	85954	93919	97887	99731	89251	76788	65631	35937	34869
CO	11B	8043	4603	24529	7454	5556	2949	6873	2978	1972	2059	2879	604	604	6513	1360	911	2398	1273	2687	3803	2641	1090	1378	1029	627	2771	1506	2114	97607	14762	2019	818
CO	1A2gvii	82823	125611	139122	139125	139184	183409	180249	177291	173414	180604	156617	172768	169875	161541	158373	154253	158848	145506	169990	118951	115531	107730	43685	43397	45642	141236	144324	143351	134765	122287	156697	150208
CO	2C1	1079557	1015055	927636	883640	949937	968718	903704	964794	937024	856438	903785	855200	826360	818181	830035	808966	823755	838178	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295	716894	722871	693902	738256	713304	697733	597850	689295
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626	95523	97448	98425	98999	95196	91428	95230	91655

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	2C1	9126	8403	7739	7271	6826	6059	5361	4492	2887	2020	2518	2550	2431	2427	2437	2444	2334	2506	2416	2386	2037	2328
PM2.5	5C2	3574	3544	3513	3482	3451	3420	3390	3359	3328	3297	3266	3235	3205	3174	3143	3112	3081	3055	3029	2876	1217	1209
PM2.5	5E	3318	3204	3280	3659	3015	2983	3169	3063	3242	3058	3012	3347	3269	3174	3257	3390	3406	3334	3343	3349	3349	3352
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	165296	159235	152693	146332	141255	135215	134207	128637	124855	113625	119349	114680	113100	111408	103589	102847	97069	95870	94945	90213	81464	83388
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	165296	159235	152693	146332	141255	135215	134207	128637	124855	113625	119349	114680	113100	111408	103589	102847	97069	95870	94945	90213	81464	83388
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	165296	159235	152693	146332	141255	135215	134207	128637	124855	113625	119349	114680	113100	111408	103589	102847	97069	95870	94945	90213	81464	83388
PM10	2C1	16790	14828	13206	12019	11005	9588	8444	7159	5071	3539	4478	4520	4314	4309	4336	4351	4173	4451	4301	4212	3611	4131
TSP	2C1	25198	22155	19703	17919	16454	14424	12896	11214	8905	6252	7944	8031	7678	7667	7711	7725	7438	7899	7644	7445	6436	7332
BC	1A3ai(ii)	499	487	489	491	490	563	587	600	596	574	555	520	563	570	536	528	576	640	664	649	299	412
BC	5E	332	320	328	366	301	298	317	306	324	306	301	335	327	317	326	339	341	333	334	335	335	335

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A3bi	1216917124	850881684	596480288	465752233	291718099	215634046	114701713	1389247	49799	50014	47942	46988	46206	44360	43712	41217	39345	38153	36972	36503	35486	35725	34144	34472	35038	33887	34232	34828	33540	33710	29886	30218
Pb	1A4bi	15086657	15120567	12099628	11716282	11106887	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6159556	7728588	9143660	9715963	7543410	11120491	12499574	7168294	6471447	5729355	7017129	5300045	5076803	5159615	4300310	4021286	4661364
Pb	2C1	345965625	327380934	296738753	276742543	292047971	295230633	269745734	277775611	264352187	239477178	244555671	225846880	198619959	178596151	161608796	137984023	118312963	97437645	69892223	50132879	63699853	64240366	61478828	61711209	62186542	62648257	59693188	64346113	61819566	61502445	52587753	60199849
Pb	2G	14167306	14394838	20206707	19486839	18428934	28403081	26298575	20001892	8866575	8727973	6729624	3173892	1936007	1412	1435	1411	1421	1438	1430	1437	1448	1473	1472	1485	1520	1548	1572	1593	1597	1608	1426	1410
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1238344	1213615	1239157	1259282	1184545	1113536	1145131	1128482	1209956	1266867	1224174	1178435	1130494	1026008	975035	762896	621906	733821
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1156764	1127827	1052685	1182090	1219426	1230158	1151435	1015901	1067181	1028544
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65405	49033	40087	43521	43220	9502	9238	8615	8461	8585	8610	9250	8589	8204	7467
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	52456	72828	75010	80910	85478	86333	88785	89963	89344	100904	101098	97170	100487	101206	113507	110071	105431	107114	112584	108252
Cd	1A4bi	496395	452101	369954	362538	381773	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	455805	550648	589195	671205	584308	790564	750096	707750	716100	573238	621773	555201	557507	570051	555233	521648	611872
Cd	2C1	7524830	7182285	6671769	6267991	6704522	6997260	6512575	6950554	6575068	6255912	6222597	5611101	4922485	4374470	3912596	3224619	2701392	2099806	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688	1229178	1231186	1192972	1256593	1218508	1176208	1031913	1170874
Cd	2C6	673617	668710	692863	682411	535829	509577	472123	440702	448418	420195	392499	379279	366397	329225	303332	286536	289231	280551	250140	154041	161146	160665	158024	152759	156130	159831	161031	159246	151783	156260	151405	157749
Cd	2C7a	6435205	6624295	7102481	7416998	7559691	6381665	7719929	6935805	6807419	6467048	6228109	5749878	5810848	4774585	4439492	3794085	4850250	4707060	4704220	4537232	6176901	6164820	5954642	6021523	5978608	6110665	6088101	6278477	6072061	5343384	5665685	5585750
Cd	2G	1076691	1083165	1025282	970717	1008220	1007347	1022750	1041447	1062439	1115176	1092794	1116109	1155921	1105376	1040752	1009848	983253	1003237	940496	909335	905168	946147	906797	885365	894897	884754	859719	859840	858130	852984	849131	841749
Hg	1A1a	12407793	11185509	10407936	9618424	9147697	8384812	8328744	7773836	7601399	7283798	7658458	7858052	7718401	7741931	7451126	7063433	6906720	6805207	6189827	6105962	6633650	5992241	6153492	5923656	5937759	5834557	5080330	5016831	4888608	3788513	2768257	3402558
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336732	336551	264176	218362	311390	319911	183753	159595	137253	133354	130168	141203	157020	135383	120269	102023
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	326314	311821	335896	332184	352318	295031	327568	303840	279769	270579	276412	323061	366510	349956	323392	310602	371570	332833
Hg	1A4bi	1355633	1040992	771499	739087	674098	584763	599636	525271	448957	439970	441469	488311	454072	411649	373664	375171	430435	407151	475881	407622	498762	496566	396395	394260	326456	356964	314662	312945	310531	296043	283100	296990
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	434000	392000	346000	225000	175000	130000	68400	50300	32200	32200
Hg	2C1	4545616	4409314	4254684	4046857	4410361	4838637	4740758	5240956	5303437	5163240	5531205	5135676	4518872	4021083	3619036	2929224	2463494	1872615	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932	1051738	1022327	1012191	1053895	1025938	972626	925033	980908

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	2C1	193507	178774	154802	140182	141917	138475	125452	124065	115756	99354	95558	84143	73313	66824	60843	53725	46825	40080	30709	21460	25647	25057	23038	22134	21264	20431	18521	19076	17351	16374	13291	15078
DIOX	5E	43752	43872	44150	44377	44303	44374	44449	44474	44458	44477	44534	42990	43998	49070	40420	39979	42459	41038	43429	40963	40134	44596	43555	42285	43382	45153	45353	44405	44527	44606	44600	44644
HCB	1A1a	3769941	3756681	3624323	3584428	3386286	3162142	2988514	2966397	2900785	2959707	2828352	2483326	2113751	1784370	1305895	1333202	1433030	1444685	1419395	1414038	1488912	1459898	1524684	1613447	1617374	1576437	1568111	1425863	1400502	1277735	1156910	1224927
HCB	2C1	896070	874020	794850	763530	819480	847290	818040	862770	866490	802200	838770	811650	783120	804330	836760	855510	876240	915510	902220	652839	803651	814027	777382	780140	783941	792158	745086	818591	780180	795322	670604	767969
HCB	3Df	109291000	138119000	55862000	29724000	26737000	17985000	26601000	24250000	5013000	44983000	18579000	791000	1004000	9602000	1593000	34287000	36315000	29986000	28869000	21083000	24923000	26156000	21025000	22804000	40240000	35612000	46139000	56958000	8805000	9491000	1523000	565000
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2900523550	2854217047	2741718365	2075541311	2222318478	2118360599	2116795772	2189707908	2485427719	2625390177	2883894515	3120805527	5605496	13809168	5380944	38092761	40425134	34185825	33232331	25025749	29337653	30439837	25453940	27373761	44515311	39903945	50298254	61097446	12886680	13416338	5176996	4576535
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2900523550	2854217047	2741718365	2075541311	2222318478	2118360599	2116795772	2189707908	2485427719	2625390177	2883894515	3120805527	5605496	13809168	5380944	38092761	40425134	34185825	33232331	25025749	29337653	30439837	25453940	27373761	44515311	39903945	50298254	61097446	12886680	13416338	5176996	4576535
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2900523550	2854217047	2741718365	2075541311	2222318478	2118360599	2116795772	2189707908	2485427719	2625390177	2883894515	3120805527	5605496	13809168	5380944	38092761	40425134	34185825	33232331	25025749	29337653	30439837	25453940	27373761	44515311	39903945	50298254	61097446	12886680	13416338	5176996	4576535
PCB	2C5	658368000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	871500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682	797168	792634	720775	749584	657266	689356	700757	641878
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454	184228	187829	185666	193464	195242	194660	181820	184930
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1735783985	1693723964	1669715600	1654956975	1644182255	1483456254	1242605874	1263407090	1187532959	1063979456	948249747	751887563	567218539	386606711	192737597	196438710	214125544	216064491	227497035	206054574	236101562	235032123	227481394	230212740	230356847	231088565	230238954	228166190	227090275	222627033	209753081	220730228
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1735783985	1693723964	1669715600	1654956975	1644182255	1483456254	1242605874	1263407090	1187532959	1063979456	948249747	751887563	567218539	386606711	192737597	196438710	214125544	216064491	227497035	206054574	236101562	235032123	227481394	230212740	230356847	231088565	230238954	228166190	227090275	222627033	209753081	220730228
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1735783985	1693723964	1669715600	1654956975	1644182255	1483456254	1242605874	1263407090	1187532959	1063979456	948249747	751887563	567218539	386606711	192737597	196438710	214125544	216064491	227497035	206054574	236101562	235032123	227481394	230212740	230356847	231088565	230238954	228166190	227090275	222627033	209753081	220730228