Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66814	70622	56973	69758	62539	67931	59001	63595	67172	54792	56797	55734	55631	54481	56942
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	35	30	32	30	31	34	42	49	58	54	59	64	61	49
NMVOC	2D3d	540000	520000	480000	480000	330817	372144	373196	386065	398934	356444	309381	300935	310800	298042	343071	314998	318619	286237	266963	216280	245636	235773	244994	223192	185962	199489	194481	201271	199976	199976
CO	11B	6165	3535	18879	5749	4294	2284	5333	2316	1536	1608	2253	474	474	5131	1075	722	1905	1014	2145	3049	2125	881	1118	836	510	2257	1228	1725	95280	12067
CO	1A2gvii	82700	125444	138968	138986	139063	183279	180144	177208	173352	180560	156587	172757	169870	161537	158326	153911	158198	145066	169230	117717	113901	106046	42026	41983	44683	140796	144407	144107	133038	126736
CO	2C1	1079557	1015055	927636	883640	949937	968718	903704	964794	937024	856438	903785	855200	826360	818181	830035	808966	823755	838178	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295	716894	722871	693902	738256	713304	697733
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626	95523	97448	98425	98999	95196	91428

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	2C1	9126	8403	7739	7271	6826	6059	5361	4492	2887	2020	2518	2550	2431	2427	2437	2444	2334	2506	2416	2386
PM2.5	5E	3318	3204	3280	3659	3015	2983	3169	3063	3242	3058	3012	3347	3269	3174	3257	3390	3406	3334	3343	3349
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	168885	162564	156003	149615	143978	137503	135462	129965	126103	114415	119740	114947	113529	111737	103958	102517	96940	95737	94660	91945
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	168885	162564	156003	149615	143978	137503	135462	129965	126103	114415	119740	114947	113529	111737	103958	102517	96940	95737	94660	91945
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	168885	162564	156003	149615	143978	137503	135462	129965	126103	114415	119740	114947	113529	111737	103958	102517	96940	95737	94660	91945
PM10	2C1	16790	14828	13206	12019	11005	9588	8444	7159	5071	3539	4478	4520	4314	4309	4336	4351	4173	4451	4301	4212
TSP	2C1	25198	22155	19703	17919	16454	14424	12896	11214	8905	6252	7944	8031	7678	7667	7711	7725	7438	7899	7644	7445

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bi	1225198874	857500758	601703119	470082315	294138915	217595074	115836733	1404072	49764	49969	47885	46904	46101	44244	43576	41084	39250	38067	36896	36435	35420	35651	34067	34386	34945	33795	34143	34736	33447	33627
Pb	1A4bi	15086657	15120567	12099628	11716282	11106887	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6159556	7728588	9143660	9715963	7543410	11120491	12499574	7168294	6471447	5729355	7017129	5300045	5076803	5159615	4299373
Pb	2C1	345965625	327380934	296738753	276742543	292047971	295230633	269745734	277775611	264352187	239477178	244555671	225846880	198619959	178596151	161608796	137984023	118312963	97437645	69892223	50132879	63699853	64240366	61478828	61711209	62186542	62648257	59693188	64346113	61819566	61502445
Pb	2G	14167317	14394853	20206711	19486845	18428944	28403084	26298576	20001892	8866575	8727971	6729621	3173891	1936010	1416	1437	1411	1418	1429	1424	1435	1447	1474	1472	1486	1517	1547	1581	1600	1421	1430
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1238344	1213615	1239157	1259282	1184545	1113536	1145131	1128482	1209956	1266867	1224174	1178435	1130494	1026008	969080	755638
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1156764	1127827	1052685	1182090	1219426	1230158	1151435	1048994
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65405	49033	40087	43521	43220	9502	9238	8615	8461	8585	8610	9250	8841
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	52456	72828	75010	80910	85478	86333	88785	89963	89344	100904	101098	97170	100487	101206	113507	110071	105431	95845
Cd	1A4bi	496395	452101	369954	362538	381773	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	455805	550648	589195	671205	584308	790564	750096	707750	716100	573238	621773	555201	557507	570051	555139
Cd	2C1	7524830	7182285	6671769	6267991	6704522	6997260	6512575	6950554	6575068	6255912	6222597	5611101	4922485	4374470	3912596	3224619	2701392	2099806	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688	1229178	1231186	1192972	1256593	1218508	1176208
Cd	2C6	673617	668710	692863	682411	535829	509577	472123	440702	448418	420195	392499	379279	366397	329225	303332	286536	289231	280551	250140	154041	161146	160665	158024	152759	156130	159831	161031	159246	151783	156260
Cd	2C7a	6435205	6624295	7102481	7416998	7559691	6381665	7719929	6935805	6807419	6467048	6228109	5749878	5810848	4774585	4439492	3794085	4850250	4707060	4704220	4537232	6176901	6164820	5954642	6021523	5978608	6110665	6088101	6278477	6072061	5343384
Cd	2G	1078382	1085283	1025769	971593	1009768	1007868	1022873	1041437	1062461	1114820	1092484	1115978	1156371	1105873	1041151	1009890	982824	1002039	939659	909034	905051	946351	906896	885377	894501	884651	860870	860847	833218	827684
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336732	336551	264176	218362	311390	319911	183753	159595	137253	133354	116528	122546	136917	133659
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	326314	311821	335896	332184	352318	295031	327568	303840	279769	270579	276412	323061	366510	349956	323392	306874
Hg	1A4bi	1355633	1040992	771499	739087	674098	584763	599636	525271	448957	439970	441469	488311	454072	411649	373664	375171	430435	407151	475881	407622	498762	496566	396395	394260	326456	356964	314662	312945	310531	293529
Hg	2A1	837020	751874	790332	795106	839393	728203	708798	747242	776962	805056	794824	718052	695458	746948	792943	749412	780279	827024	760177	687360	664800	699446	677327	621610	625403	596055	581939	599391	574754	560653
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	434000	392000	346000	225000	175000	130000	86000	86000
Hg	2C1	4545616	4409314	4254684	4046857	4410361	4838637	4740758	5240956	5303437	5163240	5531205	5135676	4518872	4021083	3619036	2929224	2463494	1872615	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932	1051738	1022327	1012191	1053895	1025938	972626

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	2C1	193507	178774	154802	140182	141917	138475	125452	124065	115756	99354	95558	84143	73313	66824	60843	53725	46825	40080	30709	21460	25647	25057	23038	22134	21264	20431	18521	19076	17351	16374
DIOX	5E	43752	43872	44150	44377	44303	44374	44449	44474	44458	44477	44534	42990	43998	49070	40420	39979	42459	41038	43429	40963	40134	44596	43555	42285	43382	45153	45353	44405	44527	44606
HCB	1A1a	3769941	3756681	3624323	3584428	3386286	3162142	2988514	2966397	2900785	2959707	2828352	2483326	2113751	1784370	1305895	1333202	1433030	1444685	1419395	1414038	1488912	1459898	1524684	1613447	1617374	1576443	1568111	1425863	1329380	1209099
HCB	2C1	896070	874020	794850	763530	819480	847290	818040	862770	866490	802200	838770	811650	783120	804330	836760	855510	876240	915510	902220	652839	803651	814027	777382	780140	783941	792158	745086	818591	780180	795322
HCB	3Df	107123771	137982895	55652974	29683032	26708555	17976042	26584722	24237207	5012400	44983200	18579130	791040	1003720	9602480	1593400	11428867	12067280	9882320	9592933	5250530	6302530	6678850	5483730	5840450	10216890	9033250	11697205	14394460	8804580	8804580
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2898384296	2854104428	2741530312	2075519115	2222308564	2118370392	2116796977	2189712784	2485448483	2625410903	2883914340	3120825471	5625881	13830610	5399451	15250558	16192843	14098430	13973272	9207748	10730306	10974804	9925249	10421306	14503480	13323500	15861800	18538412	12823172	12662752
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2898384296	2854104428	2741530312	2075519115	2222308564	2118370392	2116796977	2189712784	2485448483	2625410903	2883914340	3120825471	5625881	13830610	5399451	15250558	16192843	14098430	13973272	9207748	10730306	10974804	9925249	10421306	14503480	13323500	15861800	18538412	12823172	12662752
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2898384296	2854104428	2741530312	2075519115	2222308564	2118370392	2116796977	2189712784	2485448483	2625410903	2883914340	3120825471	5625881	13830610	5399451	15250558	16192843	14098430	13973272	9207748	10730306	10974804	9925249	10421306	14503480	13323500	15861800	18538412	12823172	12662752
PCB	2C5	658368000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	871500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682	797168	792634	720775	749584	657266	689356
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454	184228	187829	185666	193464	195242	194660
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1735482896	1693407169	1669433951	1654730956	1643993068	1483295886	1242456432	1263339824	1187532022	1063973414	948259940	751936135	567305467	386693708	192805856	196489886	214173150	216119028	227548367	206087675	236119177	235018011	227443990	230144699	230277991	230937098	230083459	227979769	219325367	215782489
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1735482896	1693407169	1669433951	1654730956	1643993068	1483295886	1242456432	1263339824	1187532022	1063973414	948259940	751936135	567305467	386693708	192805856	196489886	214173150	216119028	227548367	206087675	236119177	235018011	227443990	230144699	230277991	230937098	230083459	227979769	219325367	215782489
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1735482896	1693407169	1669433951	1654730956	1643993068	1483295886	1242456432	1263339824	1187532022	1063973414	948259940	751936135	567305467	386693708	192805856	196489886	214173150	216119028	227548367	206087675	236119177	235018011	227443990	230144699	230277991	230937098	230083459	227979769	219325367	215782489