Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: DE      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66814	70569	56973	69790	62358	67931	58697	63490	67077	54792	56277	55116	55035	52646
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	35	30	32	30	31	34	42	49	58	54	59	64	60
NMVOC	2D3d	540000	520000	480000	480000	330817	372144	373196	386065	398934	356444	309381	300935	310800	298042	343071	314998	318619	286237	266963	216280	245636	235773	244994	223192	185962	199489	194481	201271	199976
CO	2C1	1079557	1015055	927636	883640	949937	968718	903704	964794	937024	856438	903785	855200	826360	818181	830035	808966	823755	838178	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295	716894	722871	693902	739318	713308
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626	95523	97448	98425	98999	95196

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	2C1	9126	8403	7739	7271	6826	6059	5361	4492	2887	2020	2518	2550	2431	2427	2437	2444	2334	2510	2416
PM2.5	5E	3318	3204	3280	3659	3015	2983	3169	3063	3242	3058	3012	3347	3269	3174	3257	3390	3406	3334	3343
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	174067	167179	160317	154380	148805	141141	138932	134190	129559	117254	123135	118182	117088	114966	107449	105529	99545	98338	96705
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)	174067	167179	160317	154380	148805	141141	138932	134190	129559	117254	123135	118182	117088	114966	107449	105529	99545	98338	96705
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	174067	167179	160317	154380	148805	141141	138932	134190	129559	117254	123135	118182	117088	114966	107449	105529	99545	98338	96705
PM10	2C1	16790	14828	13206	12019	11005	9588	8444	7159	5071	3539	4478	4520	4314	4309	4336	4351	4173	4457	4301
TSP	2C1	25198	22155	19703	17919	16454	14424	12896	11214	8905	6252	7944	8031	7678	7667	7711	7725	7438	7912	7644

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A3bi	1219719411	853049947	598290507	467018031	292104085	215905483	114811430	1390013	49607	49808	47724	46749	45948	44090	43427	40928	39258	38061	36884	36418	35397	35625	34038	34353	34921	33546	33883	34470	33182
Pb	1A4bi	15086657	15120567	12099628	11716282	11106887	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6159556	7717750	9143660	9722785	7505132	11120491	12434722	7145856	6451009	5729355	6906102	5167968	4949518	4744071
Pb	2C1	345965625	327380934	296738753	276742543	292047971	295230633	269745734	277775611	264352187	239477178	244555671	225846880	198619959	178596151	161608796	137984023	118312963	97437645	69892223	50132879	63699853	64240366	61478828	61711209	62186542	62648257	59693188	64429997	61819718
Pb	2C7a	20769195	19812143	21045659	21974313	19393651	19815436	20205255	19565046	19247238	18284876	17651422	16321295	15247508	12243101	12653569	12608884	12684004	12831684	13365113	12966937	13069100	13184963	12675657	12533744	12460179	12521538	12384127	12808665	12366138
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1238344	1213615	1239157	1259282	1184545	1113536	1145131	1128482	1209956	1266867	1224174	1178435	1130494	1026010	964035
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1156764	1127827	1052685	1182090	1219426	1226473	1210072
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65405	49033	40087	43521	43220	9502	9238	8615	8461	8585	8610	8568
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	52456	72828	75010	80910	85478	86333	88785	89963	89344	100904	101098	97170	100487	101206	113507	110495	117228
Cd	1A4bi	496395	452101	369954	362538	381773	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	455805	549125	589195	672163	578928	790564	740981	704596	713227	573238	606169	536638	539618	521013
Cd	2C1	7524830	7182285	6671769	6267991	6704522	6997260	6512575	6950554	6575068	6255912	6222597	5611101	4922485	4374470	3912596	3224619	2701392	2099806	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688	1229178	1231186	1192972	1260875	1218512
Cd	2C7a	6435205	6624295	7102481	7416998	7559691	6381665	7719929	6935805	6807419	6467048	6228109	5749878	5810848	4774585	4439492	3794085	4850250	4707060	4704220	4537232	6176901	6164820	5954642	6021523	5978608	6110665	6088101	6278477	6072061
Cd	2G	2392571	2552328	2552941	2598362	2685542	2632465	2397257	2333765	2339892	2591217	2082700	2120523	1982843	2060262	2000913	1747329	1759680	1915422	1609612	1436749	1521049	1626166	1631910	1547313	1589435	1641214	1520141	1562624	1540796
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336732	336551	264176	218362	311390	319911	183753	159595	137253	133354	116528	122612	122606
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	326314	311821	335896	332184	352324	295034	327597	303960	279887	270718	276562	323099	366536	357483	356039
Hg	1A4bi	1355633	1040992	771499	739087	674098	584763	599636	525271	448957	439970	441469	488311	454072	411649	373664	375171	430031	407151	476136	406193	498762	494146	395558	393497	326456	352821	309734	308195	295719
Hg	2A1	837020	751874	790332	795106	839393	728203	708798	747242	776962	805056	794824	718052	695458	746948	792943	749412	780279	827024	760177	687360	664800	699446	677327	621610	625403	596055	581939	599391	574754
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	434000	392000	346000	225000	175000	130000	85000
Hg	2C1	4545616	4409314	4254684	4046857	4410361	4838637	4740758	5240956	5303437	5163240	5531205	5135676	4518872	4021083	3619036	2929224	2463494	1872615	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932	1051738	1022327	1012191	1066021	1025937

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	2C1	193507	178774	154802	140182	141917	138475	125452	124065	115756	99354	95558	84143	73313	66824	60843	53725	46825	40080	30709	21460	25647	25057	23038	22134	21264	20431	18521	19110	17351
DIOX	5E	43752	43872	44150	44377	44303	44374	44449	44474	44458	44477	44534	42990	43998	49070	40420	39979	42459	41038	43429	40963	40134	44596	43555	42285	43382	45153	45353	44405	44527
HCB	1A1a	3769941	3756681	3624323	3584428	3386286	3162142	2988514	2966397	2900785	2959707	2828352	2483326	2113751	1784370	1305895	1333202	1433030	1444685	1419395	1414038	1488912	1459898	1524684	1613447	1617374	1576443	1568111	1425863	1273686
HCB	3Df	107123771	137982895	55652974	29683032	26708555	17976042	26584722	24237207	5012400	44983200	18579130	791040	1003720	9602480	1593400	11428867	12067280	9882320	9592933	5250530	6302530	6678850	5483730	5840450	10216890	9033250	11697205	14394460	8804580
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2897488226	2853230408	2740735462	2074755585	2221489084	2117523102	2115978937	2188850014	2484581993	2624608703	2883075570	3120013821	4842761	13026280	4562906	14395651	15314109	13183992	13074142	8545271	9928214	10143454	9142807	9636307	13721835	12500528	15079067	17686546	11892231
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2897488226	2853230408	2740735462	2074755585	2221489084	2117523102	2115978937	2188850014	2484581993	2624608703	2883075570	3120013821	4842761	13026280	4562906	14395651	15314109	13183992	13074142	8545271	9928214	10143454	9142807	9636307	13721835	12500528	15079067	17686546	11892231
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2897488226	2853230408	2740735462	2074755585	2221489084	2117523102	2115978937	2188850014	2484581993	2624608703	2883075570	3120013821	4842761	13026280	4562906	14395651	15314109	13183992	13074142	8545271	9928214	10143454	9142807	9636307	13721835	12500528	15079067	17686546	11892231
PCB	2C5	658368000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	871500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682	797168	792634	720775	749584	657266
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454	184228	187829	185666	193464	195242
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1735482896	1693407169	1669433951	1654730956	1643993053	1483295872	1242456418	1263339811	1187532010	1063973403	948259933	751936128	567305460	386693703	192805939	196490143	214129924	216119562	227578076	205935390	236129135	234801699	227389775	230090155	230369013	230525253	229575980	228030711	212852352
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1735482896	1693407169	1669433951	1654730956	1643993053	1483295872	1242456418	1263339811	1187532010	1063973403	948259933	751936128	567305460	386693703	192805939	196490143	214129924	216119562	227578076	205935390	236129135	234801699	227389775	230090155	230369013	230525253	229575980	228030711	212852352
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1735482896	1693407169	1669433951	1654730956	1643993053	1483295872	1242456418	1263339811	1187532010	1063973403	948259933	751936128	567305460	386693703	192805939	196490143	214129924	216119562	227578076	205935390	236129135	234801699	227389775	230090155	230369013	230525253	229575980	228030711	212852352