Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66960	68797	54062	65294	61611	68468	58326	58966	63232	52510	55330	57791
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	35	30	32	30	31	36	46	56	67	62	68
NMVOC	2D3d	540000	520000	480000	480000	330817	372144	373196	386065	398934	356444	313955	291286	310800	298041	343073	304857	318619	286237	266963	216280	245636	235773	244994	223192	185962	199489	207393
NMVOC	2D3h																102445	93855	89943	84421	84083	98874	82492	78888	75379	68803	63902	64688
SOx	1A3di(i)	96279	81172	64360	88788	80179	80431	73874	80128	75276	78933	83883	87169	94182	106218	114179	106695	61142	74965	73086	64851	44253	43978	40956	36035	34947	4115	4804
SOx	1A4ai	360292	205913	124363	93288	49480	54787	53835	46253	32228	26843	24520	26574	23233	19189	16167	15648	17101	12410	15506	9483	8298	6435	2920	1059	1460	1949	1929
CO	2C1	1079557	1015055	927636	883640	949937	968718	903704	964794	937024	856438	903785	855200	826360	818181	830035	808966	823755	838178	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295	716894	722871	693902
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626	95523	97448	98425

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A4bi	21022	23362	21979	22032	20673	20379	20987	19169	20811	21927	28886	23958	21028	22038	17647	18828	19663
PM2.5	2C1	9126	8403	7739	7271	6826	6059	5361	4492	2887	2020	2518	2550	2431	2427	2437	2444	2333
PM10	1A4bi	22499	24965	23427	23429	21904	21530	22167	20225	21930	23081	30479	25310	22168	23247	18625	19911	20774
PM10	2C1	16790	14828	13206	12019	11005	9588	8444	7159	5071	3539	4478	4520	4314	4309	4336	4351	4171
TSP	1A4bi	23239	25764	24143	24117	22506	22088	22730	20723	22446	23604	31200	25924	22680	23792	19068	20406	21282
TSP	2C1	25198	22155	19703	17919	16454	14424	12896	11214	8905	6252	7944	8031	7678	7667	7711	7725	7436
BC	1A4bi	1879	2103	2006	2034	1935	1909	1956	1812	1952	2068	2682	2219	1972	2067	1657	1762	1853

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A3bi	1537297989	860043065	603870476	470178171	293902647	217715419	115891053	1415577	49751	49972	47681	46781	45928	43962	43396	40894	39163	38117	36972	36534	35529	35736	34128	34443	35004	33661	33977
Pb	1A4bi	15086657	15120567	12099628	11716282	11106887	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6189146	7353676	8539677	8780989	7347034	11235205	12355419	6179188	5629496	5241908	6703755	6856752
Pb	2C1	345965625	327380934	296738753	276742543	292047971	295230633	269745734	277775611	264352187	239477178	244555671	225846880	198619959	178596151	161608796	137984023	118312963	97437645	69892223	50132879	63699853	64240366	61478828	61711209	62186542	62648257	59693188
Pb	2C7a	20769195	19812143	21045659	21974313	19393651	19815436	20205255	19565046	19247238	18284876	17651422	16321295	15247508	12243101	12653569	12608884	12684004	12831684	13365113	12966937	13069100	13184963	12675657	12533744	12460179	12521538	12384127
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1237928	1213469	1238979	1259230	1184569	1113536	1145131	1128482	1209956	1266867	1224170	1178436	1127665
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1156764	1127827	1052685	1182090	1256302
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65406	49033	40088	43522	43222	9504	9240	8618	8464	8439
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	53008	72787	75468	78802	82705	84589	85763	78304	79762	90003	93791	92820	99311	101843	102857
Cd	1A4bi	496395	452101	369954	362538	381773	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	459964	497956	504308	539798	556708	806686	729836	568736	597767	504729	577730	616686
Cd	2C1	7524830	7182285	6671769	6267991	6704522	6997260	6512575	6950554	6575068	6255912	6222597	5611101	4922485	4374470	3912596	3224619	2701392	2099806	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688	1229178	1231186	1192972
Cd	2C7a	6435205	6624295	7102481	7416998	7559691	6381665	7719929	6935805	6807419	6467048	6228109	5749878	5810848	4774585	4439492	3794085	4850250	4707060	4704220	4537232	6176901	6164820	5954642	6021523	5978608	6110665	6088101
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336733	336553	264180	218369	311400	319923	183767	159612	137272	133376	123187
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	335057	321805	347585	345342	346346	277217	324056	317028	297728	289025	293111	334277	339744
Hg	1A4bi	1355633	1040992	771499	739087	674098	584763	599636	525271	448957	439970	441469	488311	454072	411649	373664	376275	416445	384612	440991	400293	503043	491187	359485	362841	308266	345270	355813
Hg	2A1	837020	751874	790332	795106	839393	728203	708798	747242	776962	805056	794824	718052	695458	746948	792943	749412	780279	827024	760177	687360	664800	699446	677327	621610	625403	596055	581939
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	434000	392000	346000	346000	346000
Hg	2C1	4545616	4409314	4254684	4046857	4410361	4838637	4740758	5240956	5303437	5163240	5531205	5135676	4518872	4021083	3619036	2929224	2463494	1872615	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932	1051738	1022327	1012191

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	2C1	193507	178774	154802	140182	141917	138475	125452	124065	115756	99354	95558	84143	73313	66824	60843	53725	46825	40080	30709	21460	25647	25057	23038	22134	21264	20431	18521
HCB	3Df	107123771	137982895	55652974	29683032	26708555	17976042	26584722	24237207	5012400	44983200	18579130	791040	1003720	9602480	1593400	11428867	12067280	9882320	9592933	5250530	6302530	6678850	5483730	5840450	10216890	9033250	11697205
PCB	2C5	658368000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	871500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682	797168	792634	720775
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454	184228	187829	185666
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1735649009	1693582565	1669628753	1654934478	1644191926	1483444950	1242592498	1263440166	1187615735	1064035667	948316457	751988642	567345101	387901535	193912855	197646955	213851968	214599698	219126712	197535381	232413888	234764617	223166350	225896943	228114077	229035108	227545771
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1735649009	1693582565	1669628753	1654934478	1644191926	1483444950	1242592498	1263440166	1187615735	1064035667	948316457	751988642	567345101	387901535	193912855	197646955	213851968	214599698	219126712	197535381	232413888	234764617	223166350	225896943	228114077	229035108	227545771