Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A2gviii	201214	158504	130741	107767	91435	90805	85699	86805	80731	78890	74931	73608	72224	75322	73309	72395	73930	75703	76923	71475	79294	81212	72106	71119	70787	68123
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66960	68797	54062	65294	61611	68468	58326	58966	63232	52138	54269
NOx	3Da2a	45430	40478	39748	39558	39739	39503	39777	39048	39090	38986	38399	38992	38064	37817	36945	37187	36577	36990	37180	37560	37282	37580	38210	38748	39351	39126
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2883443	2641144	2494660	2388449	2201301	2165704	2093666	2027635	2003960	1979250	1925655	1848333	1770713	1715139	1648744	1574001	1557605	1485120	1411010	1310383	1334028	1313900	1271551	1267817	1220885	1187449
NMVOC	1A4bi	108006	78135	62242	59170	54518	56308	54742	63544	58991	56141	51432	54012	47550	44343	38357	34246	35990	33292	37167	39259	50456	42582	37721	39563	31171	32814
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	35	30	32	30	31	36	46	56	67	62
NMVOC	2D3d	540000	520000	480000	480000	330817	372144	373196	386065	398934	356444	313955	291286	310800	298041	343073	301506	318619	286237	266963	216280	245636	235773	244994	223192	185962	199489
NMVOC	3B1a	113982	101030	96233	95084	94584	93797	93178	90158	86689	85472	81968	81588	79414	78411	76862	75988	73215	73025	75653	75434	75032	75158	75165	76548	77052	76854
NMVOC	3B1b	116914	102393	96524	94331	95160	94906	94049	90812	89998	90194	88744	89511	85113	82556	79334	78341	77167	76708	77926	77817	76813	74246	74057	74940	75191	74339
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	3389698	2904831	2670428	2518433	2107565	2026354	1958052	1932120	1890929	1746429	1600030	1497622	1429706	1359499	1367794	1311655	1317119	1253159	1197861	1101055	1216116	1130907	1105072	1091942	1016279	1020181
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	3389698	2904831	2670428	2518433	2107565	2026354	1958052	1932120	1890929	1746429	1600030	1497622	1429706	1359499	1367794	1311655	1317119	1253159	1197861	1101055	1014889	930216	900943	883263	805235	811702
SOx	1A4bi	607800	347130	243257	224581	184976	139786	139747	116288	98059	82267	74720	81437	69497	63900	52909	51488	54878	38722	49362	35870	38110	29941	19149	16297	13830	14379
SOx	2B10a	56504	24822	23796	21789	20599	25032	22577	23106	24243	24639	24802	23384	23199	23895	25568	26269	27626	27781	27426	23699	25477	26163	25596	25422	21976	21297
NH3	1A3bi	935	3253	6970	10374	12861	16116	19332	22303	23983	24396	27957	26134	25428	24134	23010	20959	19823	18760	17484	16412	14899	14414	13130	12585	12274	11487
NH3	3B1a	75108	66472	64928	65010	65640	65399	65791	64049	62937	62587	61747	63112	62040	62516	62239	62700	61305	62144	63425	64011	64247	64254	63802	64428	65532	65861
NH3	3B1b	96615	83985	81188	80151	82092	82354	81351	78805	78408	79629	78935	80174	75990	77386	74468	73772	72787	72208	73700	73943	72923	70043	69364	70025	69901	68841
NH3	3B3	117124	99873	102545	100586	92719	89918	92103	93928	98932	97549	95160	95643	96408	97601	94556	98226	96456	98234	96064	97209	92918	94185	97057	95404	95849	93053
NH3	3Da2a	297403	268399	261315	259014	243103	241403	242169	235830	234251	233057	227172	229218	221224	217719	211187	209664	205061	205871	206035	206197	204786	206757	204916	208878	211675	210951
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	793080	708701	694355	694121	664175	678535	685725	680630	687991	694575	697672	705955	691742	691254	682861	678130	682758	682995	692172	710354	681429	723242	704760	729518	737369	759265
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	793080	708701	694355	694121	664175	678535	685725	680630	687991	694575	697672	705955	691742	691254	682861	678130	682758	682995	692172	710354	641490	673501	653429	668610	673921	695494
CO	1A1a	154491	138087	127272	116700	111350	107215	104669	100840	98148	96245	99467	100255	99875	110301	98612	98445	102085	111033	110972	112566	120436	127960	129750	131672	130208	130433
CO	1A4ai	1338589	855631	523452	382787	199814	237558	196328	218906	134830	112555	112942	106573	101382	80897	73398	74654	84293	81820	79375	63429	68740	70751	45633	33324	32233	27788
CO	1A4bi	1924887	1427498	1108713	1050535	966255	839304	824495	897235	827898	816721	789628	857682	791363	746044	686929	664676	681712	638472	673751	664810	843855	728842	575712	576491	450378	458237
CO	2C1	1079557	1015055	927636	883640	949937	968718	903704	964794	937024	856438	903785	855200	826360	818181	830035	808966	823755	838178	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295	716894	722871
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626	95523	97448
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	12499659	10272538	8888393	8090534	6734610	6438920	5986890	5850637	5408251	5064671	4793556	4617246	4343613	4162790	3926668	3721916	3625737	3507580	3403005	2956835	3322277	3234859	2860535	2833222	2719907	2682922
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	12499659	10272538	8888393	8090534	6734610	6438920	5986890	5850637	5408251	5064671	4793556	4617246	4343613	4162790	3926668	3721916	3625737	3507580	3403005	2956835	3322277	3234859	2860535	2833222	2719907	2682922

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A4bi	21022	23362	21979	22032	20673	20379	20987	19169	20811	21927	28886	23958	21028	22038	17256	18292
PM2.5	2C1	9106	8383	7720	7253	6810	6047	5351	4486	2887	2020	2518	2550	2431	2427	2437	2443
PM10	1A4bi	22499	24965	23427	23429	21904	21530	22167	20225	21930	23081	30479	25310	22168	23247	18215	19343
PM10	2C1	16760	14799	13177	11991	10980	9569	8429	7151	5071	3539	4478	4520	4314	4309	4336	4350
TSP	1A4bi	23239	25764	24143	24117	22506	22088	22730	20723	22446	23604	31200	25924	22680	23792	18649	19823
TSP	2C1	25152	22110	19658	17877	16417	14395	12874	11202	8905	6252	7944	8031	7678	7667	7711	7724
BC	1A4bi	1879	2103	2006	2034	1935	1909	1956	1812	1952	2068	2682	2219	1972	2067	1618	1710

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A3bi	1538516073	861278543	605125457	471462806	295135037	218965562	117142869	2658182	1294319	1319644	1274968	1293526	1305944	1272613	1320754	1287364	1274186	1273688	1258642	1265963	1254416	1283149	1252367	1292824	1340752	1321299
Pb	1A4bi	15086657	15120567	12099628	11716282	11106887	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6189146	7353676	8539677	8780989	7347034	11235205	12355419	6179188	5629496	5162396	5642247
Pb	2C1	345965625	327380934	296738753	276742543	292047971	295230633	269745734	277775611	264352187	239477178	244555671	225846880	198619959	178596151	161608796	137984023	118312963	97437645	69892223	50132879	63699853	64240366	61478828	61711209	62186542	62648257
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2250007277	1473365975	1146563032	964846622	779357637	712288284	575506104	448496629	402262397	394563617	403394892	367317318	348781670	326868512	316117092	286343579	274242784	255620372	225100118	201669533	220475874	220642220	212398487	208025974	214107191	220345147
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	2250007277	1473365975	1146563032	964846622	779357637	712288284	575506104	448496629	402262397	394563617	403394892	367317318	348781670	326868512	316117092	286343579	274242784	255620372	225100118	201669533	220475874	220642220	212398487	208025974	214107191	220345147
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1235242	1211360	1237128	1259230	1187708	1114542	1146191	1129434	1210894	1267834	1219121	1188633
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1156764	1127827	1051044	1071355
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65406	49033	40088	43522	43222	9504	9241	8618	8355
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	53008	72787	75468	78802	82705	84589	87059	79673	81426	93323	84800	92677	102623	100162
Cd	1A3bvi	223545	235371	241627	246202	251244	257062	261247	265713	271444	278796	280828	286177	290412	289227	294090	287626	290924	294284	292933	291848	296209	301975	301172	303469	309319	315559
Cd	1A4bi	496395	452101	369954	362538	381773	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	459964	497956	504308	539798	556708	806686	729836	568736	597767	493554	546645
Cd	2C1	7524830	7182285	6671769	6267991	6704522	6997260	6512575	6950554	6575068	6255912	6222597	5611101	4922485	4374470	3912596	3224619	2701392	2099806	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688	1229178	1231186
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	23579749	19875670	16705754	15112881	14697400	13721877	12917156	13457094	12842183	13224119	12394130	11903514	11208499	10846972	10010788	9104368	8722533	8332437	7136074	6503258	7121240	7097453	6818439	6864756	6508527	6567564
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	23579749	19875670	16705754	15112881	14697400	13721877	12917156	13457094	12842183	13224119	12394130	11903514	11208499	10846972	10010788	9104368	8722533	8332437	7136074	6503258	7121240	7097453	6818439	6864756	6508527	6567564
Hg	1A1a	12407793	11185509	10407936	9618424	9147697	8384812	8328744	7773836	7601399	7283798	7658458	7858052	7718401	7741931	7442918	6992961	6843082	6754557	6161826	6082429	6615521	5981488	6148857	5926611	5682505	5573964
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336733	336553	264180	218368	311399	319924	183772	159614	137273	132605
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	335057	321805	347585	345342	346747	277640	324570	339733	323154	328356	331548	334602
Hg	1A4bi	1355633	1040992	771499	739087	674098	584763	599636	525271	448957	439970	441469	488311	454072	411649	373664	376275	416445	384612	440991	400293	503043	491187	359485	362841	305299	319048
Hg	2A1	828733	744430	782507	787234	831082	720993	701780	739844	769269	797085	786955	710943	688573	739552	785092	741992	772554	818836	752651	673883	651765	685731	664046	609422	613140	584368
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	434000	392000	346000	346000
Hg	2C1	4545616	4409314	4254684	4046857	4410361	4838637	4719052	5204460	5262909	5125029	5490861	5100732	4487788	3994641	3597229	2913371	2452310	1866856	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932	1051738	1022327
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	34846877	29313256	24767544	22035534	20884980	19840767	19316463	18983493	18607698	17805375	17828208	17253391	16318635	15690732	15015644	13676046	13122118	12336964	10815256	10082313	10886762	10309726	9985450	9626880	9239293	9094952
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	34846877	29313256	24767544	22035534	20884980	19840767	19316463	18983493	18607698	17805375	17828208	17253391	16318635	15690732	15015644	13676046	13122118	12336964	10815256	10082313	10886762	10309726	9985450	9626880	9239293	9094952

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A4bi	19618	15867	13358	13284	12486	11465	11917	13587	13244	12952	12749	14261	13469	13575	12918	12753	13304	12157	13725	14189	17571	15152	14270	15357	12561	13479
DIOX	2C1	193507	169280	139184	119890	115834	108329	94332	90172	81604	68424	64674	56327	49024	45022	41916	38660	36183	34349	30709	21186	25047	24253	22146	21173	20290	19492
HCB	1A1a	3769941	3756681	3624323	3584428	3386286	3162142	2988514	2966397	2900785	2959707	2828352	2483326	2113751	1784370	1273808	1308012	1410920	1444685	1456891	1426052	1501580	1471267	1535898	1624997	1549563	1519554
PCB	1A1a	340878400	356941600	371330400	392278800	397412400	363424753	329040009	330244122	312261307	323343614	299701776	246640837	193710950	138150532	67123200	72620200	81277400	83559000	92623760	96618400	100728960	99945120	101199080	103909400	101063840	101063840
PCB	1A4bi	78522303	56662408	43034264	41196076	37179161	31025612	31812396	29774200	26832204	25668304	24954182	27947315	25645306	24504575	22487846	22616704	24671421	21633293	25552740	24725832	31219144	28577839	23620620	24808975	20513826	21569402
PCB	2C5	658368000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	745500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682	797168	792634
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454	184228	187829
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1735710427	1693652504	1669699819	1655046611	1644314083	1483566583	1242721432	1263566050	1187746353	1064166189	948442957	752117739	567479597	388047972	190627863	195095221	211629574	214746196	223583826	199415767	234465691	244062142	233531376	240037916	231954033	232494047
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1735710427	1693652504	1669699819	1655046611	1644314083	1483566583	1242721432	1263566050	1187746353	1064166189	948442957	752117739	567479597	388047972	190627863	195095221	211629574	214746196	223583826	199415767	234465691	244062142	233531376	240037916	231954033	232494047