Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A2gviii	201214	158504	130741	107767	91435	90805	85699	86805	80731	78890	74931	73608	72224	75322	73309	72395	73930	75703	76923	71475	79294	81212	72106	71248	68823
NOx	1A3bi	856168	752624	699567	653617	525352	508770	479822	447530	418601	393087	350599	339026	326009	303720	300771	277588	255583	242856	219735	210365	201061	203493	198016	204020	210602
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66960	69251	54920	66669	63468	71161	60609	61280	65691	55513
NOx	3Da2a	45430	40478	39748	39558	39739	39503	39777	39048	39090	38986	38399	38992	38064	37817	36944	37192	36575	36986	37180	37560	37272	37580	38209	38738	39293
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2881886	2639058	2492231	2385942	2198339	2163799	2091827	2025776	2002167	1977348	1923700	1846312	1768430	1713253	1647488	1572442	1556923	1485145	1411614	1311899	1336732	1315875	1274960	1272410	1224295
NMVOC	1A4bi	108006	78135	62242	59170	54518	56308	54742	63544	58991	56141	51432	54012	47550	44343	38357	34246	36340	33924	38250	40821	52896	45631	41651	44891	36957
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123378	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	35	30	32	30	31	35	43	51	61
NMVOC	3B1a	113982	101030	96233	95084	94584	93797	93178	90158	86689	85472	81968	81588	79414	78411	76862	75988	73215	73025	75653	75434	75032	75158	75165	76548	77052
NMVOC	3B1b	116914	102393	96524	94331	95160	94906	94049	90812	89998	90194	88744	89511	85113	82556	79334	78341	77167	76708	77926	77817	76813	74246	74057	74940	75191
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	3389448	2904495	2670036	2517970	2107115	2026208	1957824	1931760	1890481	1745869	1599372	1496865	1427914	1358756	1366855	1338089	1323949	1265959	1213613	1126814	1235610	1165658	1133684	1110346	1041355
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	3389448	2904495	2670036	2517970	2107115	2026208	1957824	1931760	1890481	1745869	1599372	1496865	1427914	1358756	1366855	1338089	1323949	1265959	1213613	1126814	1034383	964967	929555	901668	830311
SOx	1A4ai	344483	197698	113632	79410	47618	44151	47609	39348	31723	27082	24844	27861	24047	20889	17832	17230	19380	14179	18631	14677	15798	15173	12153	11796	9201
SOx	1A4bi	449586	281528	187833	167682	140190	112715	113994	105327	92054	78019	73425	79960	68911	61422	52026	50288	54646	39364	51836	43777	51714	48149	39423	41029	35534
SOx	2B10a	56025	24822	23796	21789	20599	25032	22577	23106	24243	24639	24802	23384	23199	23895	25568	26475	27873	28020	27642	23867	25363	26344	25785	25464	21999
NH3	1A3bi	935	3253	6970	10374	12861	16116	19332	22303	23983	24396	27957	26134	25428	24134	23010	20959	19823	18760	17484	16412	14899	14410	13123	12572	12286
NH3	3B1a	194688	175367	171603	171607	173207	172630	173704	168748	165380	164617	160303	162634	158735	158416	156023	155722	151197	152240	154359	154870	155023	155801	152732	154592	157577
NH3	3B1b	212106	187429	179882	176501	168182	167600	165633	160104	158670	160422	156976	158685	149291	148120	141422	138837	136254	134190	135561	135146	132466	127355	125070	126445	126036
NH3	3B3	151796	129388	132878	130450	115691	112193	114923	117196	124070	122294	119103	119446	120194	121416	117404	122404	120350	122957	120548	122446	117682	120432	123797	122748	123702
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	792928	708579	694244	694029	664110	678465	685666	680570	687939	694530	697765	706052	691842	691356	682966	678303	682904	683154	692390	710612	681612	723568	705098	729951	739787
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	792928	708579	694244	694029	664110	678465	685666	680570	687939	694530	697765	706052	691842	691356	682966	678303	682904	683154	692390	710612	641583	673715	653645	668804	673661
CO	1A3bi	6094377	5190456	4689366	4252790	3262768	3026031	2737908	2455100	2227602	2009363	1727754	1574107	1423726	1269128	1161827	1024148	907057	841440	753596	706992	649243	630927	580278	563643	556442
CO	1A4ai	1338589	855631	523452	382787	199814	237558	196328	218906	134830	112555	112942	106573	101382	80897	73398	74654	87630	89029	90189	76110	85322	91948	64760	54278	53085
CO	1A4bi	1924887	1427498	1108713	1050535	966255	839304	824495	897235	827898	816721	789628	857682	791363	746044	686929	664676	708405	689764	758295	786905	1039485	925808	792177	843874	694950
CO	2C1	1161313	1092029	1005594	956392	1028087	972464	907230	968502	940457	859569	906807	857807	828602	820079	831641	810118	824574	838588	788945	557436	734593	733824	702723	707295	716894
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52517	72496	77850	73876	88626	95523
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	12581045	10348806	8965474	8162211	6811533	6441354	5989155	5853097	5410495	5066555	4795314	4618550	4344570	4163434	3927632	3722138	3655699	3565633	3497377	3090529	3533247	3451809	3095265	3120732	2964418
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	12581045	10348806	8965474	8162211	6811533	6441354	5989155	5853097	5410495	5066555	4795314	4618550	4344570	4163434	3927632	3722138	3655699	3565633	3497377	3090529	3533247	3451809	3095265	3120732	2964418

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	2C1	9030	8325	7673	7216	6782	5996	5312	4459	2872	2015	2518	2549	2431	2424	2441
PM10	2C1	15676	13757	12146	10958	9914	8463	7287	5979	5047	3530	4478	4518	4314	4304	4344

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A3bi	1538516073	861278543	605125457	471462806	295135037	218965562	117142869	2658182	1294319	1319644	1274968	1293526	1305944	1272613	1320754	1287364	1274186	1273688	1258642	1265963	1254416	1283169	1252404	1292941	1342311
Pb	1A4bi	9555576	11589652	9777132	9622763	9355751	11459531	10944605	10096297	8187372	8558444	8884798	9401805	9279387	6888578	6012908	6189146	7353676	8539677	8780989	7347034	11235205	12355419	6179188	5629496	4518143
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	2069736682	1298293750	989628848	814171647	619172982	702442402	566480195	437746704	392636907	385549996	393421858	357768824	339186170	317422976	306403890	276981989	264308811	245409772	224949806	201538562	220310078	220478564	212333541	207965443	213444813
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	2069736682	1298293750	989628848	814171647	619172982	702442402	566480195	437746704	392636907	385549996	393421858	357768824	339186170	317422976	306403890	276981989	264308811	245409772	224949806	201538562	220310078	220478564	212333541	207965443	213444813
Cd	1A1a	4915036	3598866	2837490	2200977	1647957	1137916	1205678	1145110	1179218	1138752	1202143	1249716	1232466	1273567	1235242	1211360	1237128	1259230	1184569	1113536	1145131	1128453	1209932	1267386	1201089
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167288	1082599	1191613	1001147	1472524	1177210	1227792	1408787	1530329	1292841	1404481	1479010	1484965	1409728	1234219	1268891	1229318	1156764	1127827	1078566
Cd	1A1c	4062606	2885866	1510164	941064	489721	104964	89211	67024	65770	65826	63951	54997	57898	65479	70364	63990	67665	65406	49033	40088	43522	43222	9504	9241	8760
Cd	1A2gviii	1893828	897444	439685	231578	127513	93526	86057	97815	81989	73030	51164	45756	53008	72787	75468	78802	82705	84589	87059	79673	81426	93323	84800	92717	91583
Cd	1A4bi	265391	304634	272956	275103	308638	432345	431935	525072	506355	518532	506984	555217	541167	498939	460764	459964	497956	504308	539798	556708	806686	729836	568736	597767	489389
Cd	2C1	4121229	3935709	3760946	3541514	3842463	7009273	6522777	6960949	6584244	6263530	6230045	5617242	4927772	4378868	3916166	3227184	2703187	2100727	1347153	963936	1256664	1267894	1218077	1219688	1229178
Hg	1A1a	12407793	11185509	10407936	9618424	9147697	8384812	8328744	7773836	7601399	7283798	7658458	7858052	7718401	7741931	7442918	6992961	6843082	6754557	6152234	6079356	6612280	5978491	6145920	5922841	5634850
Hg	1A1c	6416924	4764380	2732456	1916272	1237404	719707	584968	432138	362121	338943	319407	280094	298030	329396	357904	326991	336733	336553	264180	218368	311399	321477	184093	159496	140348
Hg	1A2gviii	5221385	2760983	1645982	1126319	813291	727255	640998	719473	582701	544215	368414	361111	374434	382599	335057	321805	347585	345342	346747	277640	324570	339733	323154	329398	319354
Hg	1A4bi	941896	710658	517458	489823	445713	391224	402562	341648	298719	300734	296337	322929	303731	275944	254336	256141	280945	280258	305228	289592	383662	369147	270738	274366	219333
Hg	2A1	828733	744430	782507	787234	831082	720993	701780	739844	769269	797085	786955	710943	688573	739552	785092	741992	772554	818836	752651	673883	651765	685731	664046	609422	613140
Hg	2B10a	3010000	3345000	3244000	2852000	2924000	2935000	2820000	2630000	2705000	2399000	1849000	1564000	1398000	1211000	1248000	1140000	1079000	950000	790000	712000	600000	512000	434000	392000	392000
Hg	2C1	2704614	2614786	2621813	2479433	2725696	4838643	4719058	5204466	5262915	5125035	5490867	5100738	4487793	3994647	3597235	2913377	2452316	1866862	1182814	907959	1065915	1137059	1101564	1078932	1051738
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	32242069	26854890	22697491	20047233	18902161	19546554	19046327	18698865	18429293	17637428	17645785	17055249	16133731	15540587	14886146	13544341	12969887	12210564	10647599	9954940	10747893	10163570	9889725	9534660	9137182
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	32242069	26854890	22697491	20047233	18902161	19546554	19046327	18698865	18429293	17637428	17645785	17055249	16133731	15540587	14886146	13544341	12969887	12210564	10647599	9954940	10747893	10163570	9889725	9534660	9137182

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A4bi	19618	15867	13358	13284	12486	11465	11917	13587	13244	12952	12749	14261	13469	13575	12918	12753	13304	12157	13725	14189	17571	15152	14270	15357	12770
PCB	1A4bi	78522303	56662408	43034264	41196076	37179161	31025612	31812396	29774200	26832204	25668304	24954182	27947315	25645306	24504575	22487846	22616704	24671421	21633293	25552740	24725832	31219144	28577839	23620620	24808975	20446804
PCB	2C5	603072000	615648000	589056000	545088000	531200000	452225940	304739960	368687270	339176520	282770650	248167620	180069780	122238400	57794730	753900	718200	676200	745500	745500	820260	851340	901110	888451	840682	797168
PCB	2C6	196560000	235224000	272916000	333594000	355104000	276864760	250294040	210585240	187301240	156150550	123614820	93069260	65824720	33907320	420200	368500	377300	368500	321200	168300	181830	186890	186341	178454	184228
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1680414427	1693652504	1669699819	1655046611	1644314083	1483566583	1242721432	1263566050	1187746353	1064166189	948442957	752117739	567479597	388047972	190627863	195095221	211629574	214746196	219572626	198130527	233110333	242808334	232301430	241192270	236019171
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1680414427	1693652504	1669699819	1655046611	1644314083	1483566583	1242721432	1263566050	1187746353	1064166189	948442957	752117739	567479597	388047972	190627863	195095221	211629574	214746196	219572626	198130527	233110333	242808334	232301430	241192270	236019171